Wintry Mess to Impact the Area Overnight

Locations across the NYC Metro Area are now under Winter Weather Advisories as snow and other wintry precipitation continues to envelop the area.  Tonight, temperatures will continue to rise, and the wintry precipitation now will slowly transition to sleet and freezing rain, before tapering off as some rain showers across the area very early tomorrow morning.  Currently, areas still receiving snow will likely have accumulated 1-3 inches of snow by now, making it somewhat difficult to get around.  Ground temperatures are still below that of the air, meaning that areas receiving snow or other wintry precipitation will likely continue to see more accumulation.  Tomorrow’s commute will be messy in the early morning  until more rain moves in around 9 AM to wash some of the slush and snow on the roads away.

A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when the National Weather Service decides there will be hazardous weather in a certain area that will include some sort of wintry precipitation.

Most Winter Weather Advisories across the area are set to expire tomorrow around 7 AM.

BLIZZARD SHIFTS NORTH

January 23, 2016 Update:

THE TRACK FOR THIS BLIZZARD HAS SHIFTED NORTH.  LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ARE NOW UNDER BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS.

In locations across the New York City Metro Area, the snow has already started to accumulate.  The National Weather Service is now calling for a foot or more in most of the Metro Area.  Expect an additional foot or more of snow with some brief bursts of thunder snow throughout the day starting at 7 am.

The storm has the potential to create extremely dangerous road conditions at times today even in areas not specified under Blizzard Warnings.

There is the potential for widespread power outages across the Tri-State area.

Before making any decisions regarding the weather.  Visit weather.gov.

Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings Issued

A major winter storm is expected to impact the entire New York City Metro Area tonight into Sunday Morning.

Southern Connecticut Overview:  Currently, Southern Fairfield and Southern New Haven Counties are under Winter Storm Warnings.  Locations in southern portions of Northern Fairfield County can expect near-blizzard conditions, but due to less of a threat further north in the county, the National Weather Service has decided to keep the alert level at an advisory (likewise for Northern New Haven County).  Expect wind gusts around 40 MPH with snow totals 6-15 inches.

Southeastern New York Overview: Blizzard conditions for the Greater New York City area along with Long Island.  Winter Storm Warnings for locations just to the north (Westchester County), and continued Winter Storm Watches for locations just to the north of there.  Expect wind gusts potentially reaching 50 MPH with snow totals ranging from 6 to 18 inches.

Northern New Jersey Overview: Winter Storm Warnings issued for Northwestern portions of this area.  Blizzard Warnings closer to the coast.  Expect snow totals ranging from 6 to 24 inches with wind gusts potentially reaching 60 MPH.

For more detailed information, visit weather.gov

As of 1/22/2016 5:00 PM EST

“Snowmageddon v.2” Update

*UPDATE – 6:00 PM EST 1/21/2016*

The first major winter storm for millions across the Northeast is on its way.  This storm is expected to create blizzard conditions from Connecticut to Virginia and travel delays lasting hours or days from JFK to Reagan Natl.

*The National Weather Service in Upton New York has issued Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches for parts of the New York City Metropolitan Area. Locations in southern portions of Connecticut can expect alerts ranging from Winter Weather Advisories to Blizzard Warnings over the following 24 hours.*

*UPDATE*-  The short range computer models are now in range of this storm and have continued to flip-flop on their positions over the past 18 hours.  The NAM (12 KM) is now calling for the storm to ride further up the Eastern Seaboard and bring over two feet of snow to almost the entire NYC Metro Area.  Other short range computer models such as the WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and the RGEM are slowly inching their forecasts further north.  More shifting and settling with more northerly forecasts can be expected over the following day or so as the low pressure that will become this “Snowmageddon V.2” stays closer to the north end of all the previous tracks.

Specific and detailed updates for your area can be found on weather.gov

 

First Snowfall in and around New York City!

The unofficial start winter was today across many locations north and west of NYC.  Although no measurable snowfall was recorded, locations from in and around Poughkeepsie to as far south as Salem, Peekskill, and even some locations in western Connecticut, experienced flurries and light snow showers a good one to two months ahead of time.

Why the snow?

Although temperatures in and around the NYC Metro Area were generally higher than freezing at the time of the snow, the temperature in the atmosphere was a bit cooler than freezing, which allowed fast-falling snow to reach the ground before it melted in-air.

Due to the above freezing temperatures of the ground though, many of these snowflakes melted within 30 seconds of contact with the ground.

(The official start of Meteorological Winter is December 1st, and the start of the season Winter is generally considered December 21st.)

Hurricane Joaquin is a Category Four Storm, Track Uncertainty Remains

As of October 1 2015 12:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (EDT)

Hurricane Hunter Aircraft flying at low altitudes has recovered wind speeds upwards of 115 Knots (About 130 MPH), and the storm now has a Mean Sea-level Pressure (MSLP) of 939 millibars. Joaquin is still moving southwest into The Bahamas, but is expected to reach the Jet Stream shortly and begin its turn to the north.  At this moment, one on a satellite image may view this change in direction, as it has just begun.  As this has just begun, the storm is still moving to the west, so the storm will likely stay on the slightly westward side of the current NHC Track Cone issued at the 11 AM 15 Advisory Update.  At the moment many of the computer models seem to be incorrect in saying it would temporarily stall out in The Bahamas and sling-shotting to the northeast, for the storm has started to move slightly to the northwest.

Locations across the East Coast that need to be on alert are: North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maine.

More updates soon here on Weather360.

For emergency information, consult the NHC at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT THE EAST COAST

Overnight:  Hurricane Warnings and Watches has been issued for The Bahamas, as Tropical Storm Joaquin is expected to strengthen to a hurricane shortly and impact The Bahamas over the next two to three days.  The NHC track has also shifted to the west, with a track that has Hurricane Joaquin impacting The East Coast anywhere from New Jersey to Rhode Island this coming Monday or Tuesday.

Everyone from Virginia to Rhode Island should continue to monitor this storm and be prepared for every scenario for your area.  Now is the time to make sure you have what you need in the event a hurricane impacts you.

The Models:

The current most popular trend with some of the more major, long range computer models, all try to bring this storm into  locations just south of Delaware, but other major computer models such as the ECMWF and the TVCN (The most popular among the NHC) suggest a more easterly track, which will likely shift the current general trend back up to the north and east once more, but yet again, we can not predict this with 100% accuracy, for this storm has been rapidly strengthening so much, every single computer model seems to shift in every which direction  every model run…

We’ll continue to monitor the storm for you – Weather360 9/30/15

Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Strengthen and May Impact East Coast

Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts.  Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.

ECMWF VS GFS:

The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences.  For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic.  The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.

At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.

Tropical Storm Erika may pose threat to entire East Coast if models hold through

BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: 3:45 PM EDT/AST

It is now almost 4 o’clock across the Eastern Seaboard of the US and with the latest run of the computer model runs, some fairly intriguing information has come out as well.

What’s happening?

As of the 12 UTC update, several computer models that do bring Erika up the East Coast, also bring Erika to Category 4 and Category 5 status while nearing the Outer Banks.  This could, if true, mean that a potential catastrophic disaster could be felt anywhere from Florida, to New England, with that in mind, we do remind you that some computer models do still bring a weaker system into Florida, which would avert a potential catastrophe.  For anyone from Florida to New England, we do advise to at least be thinking about preparation for this potential storm.

For those in the Caribbean Islands, including Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and The Bahamas, we recommend immediate action, as we expect a slight shift in the track by the NHC over the next hour.

Bottom Line:  BE PREPARED, Don’t let a storm catch you off guard.

We will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Erika.

Rain and thunder moving in over the weekend could pose a threat to millions

A LEVEL III ALERT MESSAGE BY WEATHER 360 WILL BE RELEASED TOMORROW MORNING AS A PART OF OUR NEW 3.A.S. SYSTEM

The next few days across the Tri-State Area will be for the most part, calm.  With temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s and little to no clouds in the sky, the next few days will feel like true Summer, unlike the temperatures from several days ago that made everyone feel like it was May again.  Although temperatures will be roughly the same during the start of next week, the potential for rain and thunderstorms will start to appear starting around early or midday Sunday.  Therefore, over the next 24 hours, Weather 360 will initiate its first issue of the 3.A.S. (3-Leveled Alert System.)  In this case, an Increasing Level III Alert will be issued as of tomorrow morning.  This means not only to be alert and aware that potentially threatening weather may move into our area over the next 36 hours or so, but also means that the threat level will likely increase to either Level II, or potentially a Level I, Most Urgent Alert.  If this alert was only a normal Level III Alert, then the threat level would likely not increase and one would only have to remain aware of the incoming weather conditions.