Winter – Weather 360

Multi-Day Winter Weather Event Kicks Off Meteorological Winter

December 1, 2019December 1, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, Freezing Rain, Ice, Long Island, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Sleet, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.

THE FREEZING LINE

This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.

INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.

Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.

Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

October 29, 2019November 12, 2019Posted in Weather 360, WinterTagged Climate, National Weather Service, Nor'easter, Weather360, Winter, Winter 2019 - 2020, winter storm, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite — Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

Snow Intensifies in Early March Storm

March 3, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged 8" of snow, black ice, Dangerous conditions, Heavy Snow, Major Snowstorm, Moderate Snow, radar, snow, Snow Storm, Winter Storm WarningLeave a comment

Snow has been falling for several hours in what may turn out to be 2019’s first significant nor’easter. Upwards of half a foot of snow is now expected throughout the entire New York City Metropolitan Area. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.

Radar 03032019 — National Weather Service radar image from about 9pm Eastern Time March 3, 2019. This image does not distinguish between liquid and frozen precipitation.

Snow Accumulation 19 - 3 3 — Weather 360’s final snow total forecast for this early March winter storm. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings calling for 4 to 8 inches of snow for many locations, especially those north of the city.

Over the past 24 hours, several computer models, such as the NAM3km and HDRPS (both detailed and accurate computer models) have zeroed in on this storm lasting from Sunday afternoon through Monday around 6 or 7 am ET. Both computer models have pointed to snow totals averaging about 5 to 9 inches in Manhattan, Long Island, New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.

4 dangerous — Weather 360 is forecasting roadways of all types, especially secondary and tertiary roadways, to become dangerous tonight into early tomorrow morning. Please exercise extreme caution while driving during the duration of this event.

While snow has been falling for some time now, roadways are only now beginning to become covered and particularly hazardous in some places. Other than up to several inches of snow on roadways by tomorrow morning, it is possible that because of warmer temperatures earlier Sunday, there may be small layers of ice beneath the snow. Although temperatures will warm to above freezing on Monday, rapid refreezing Monday afternoon may create black ice on roadways.

Stay safe!

Snow to Transition to Wintry Mix, Ice, and Rain Tuesday

February 11, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Ice, Power Outages, Road Hazards, Sleet, Slick Roads, snow, Spotty Power Outages, Widespread Power Outages, Winter, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories throughout the New York City Tri-State Area. Updated ice accumulation forecasts have indicated a much more significant level of ice accretion for locations to the north and west of the city, making for potentially dangerous roadway conditions Tuesday afternoon as well as setting up the possibility for isolated to potentially widespread power outages going into Tuesday night.

IceForecast02112019 — The National Weather Service’s ice accumulation forecast as of 8:41 pm EST on February 11, 2019.

Plan on steady snow developing by mid-morning Tuesday, with the potential for snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour in the first couple hours of the storm. While the exact timing of the transition from snow to wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain, and snow) depends heavily on specific location, most areas – excluding Long Island, where the transition could occur more rapidly and sooner than elsewhere – will see this changeover around the early to mid-afternoon.

warrior-forecast-snow-event-11-12-18 — The Weather 360 snowfall forecast for Tuesday, February 11, 2019. Snow totals will vary greatly based on proximity to the coast.

Roadways will become dangerous by early afternoon due to periods of heavy precipitation and ice accretion. Please avoid unnecessary travel during the worst of the storm, with extreme caution on both treated and untreated roadways due to ice, snow, and reduced visibility. Most locations should see conditions rapidly improve Wednesday as temperatures are expected to go above freezing.

Far-Reaching Winter Storm Expected to Bring Heavy Snow, Sleet, Ice, and Rain

January 18, 2019January 19, 2019Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged >12" snow, Extreme Cold, Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Ice, Power Outages, Road Hazards, Sleet, Widespread Power Outages, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

2019’s first major winter weather event has now triggered Winter Storm Warnings throughout the NYC Metropolitan Area. Recent runs of short range computer models have indicated larger-than-expected snow accumulations north and west of the city, with some places potentially receiving upwards of 12 inches of snow along with up to a quarter of an inch of ice.

snow accumulation 19 - 1 18 — The official Weather 360 Tri-State-wide snow total forecast as of 6:00 pm ET January 18, 2019. As per usual in storms involving ice and wintry mix, the greatest snow totals are most likely to occur in interior locations of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut to the north and west of the city.

While more areas may see more snow than ice or rain, the potential still exists for upwards of a quarter of an inch of ice to accumulate by early Sunday morning. The threat of ice, along with heavy snow and wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph, may lead to downed trees and tree limbs as well as power outages come Sunday afternoon. Coupled with sub-zero temperatures Sunday night, the storm has become potentially serious, especially for those who do experience lapses in electricity.

4 Dangerous.JPG — The official Weather 360 roadway forecast, valid from sundown Saturday afternoon until Monday morning. Exact roadway conditions will be heavily dependent on location, but expect conditions to be especially hazardous during the time frame indicated above. Exercise extreme caution on roadways during and after the storm.

Along with the threat for downed trees and power lines also comes the threat for dangerous road conditions. Roadways will begin deteriorating late Saturday afternoon and, due to the rapid refreezing of any liquid on the ground going into Sunday night, will remain potentially hazardous at least through Monday morning.

More updates will be posted as needed both here and on our Facebook page. Stay safe!

Uncertainty Remains as Major Weekend Storm Nears

January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Extreme Cold, Freezing Rain, GFS, High Winds, Ice, Mid Atlantic, NAM, New England, New York City, New York Metro Area, Power Outages, rain, Sleet, snow, Snow StormLeave a comment

Aside from several inches in November, it has been ten months since there has been significant snowfall seen in the New York City Metropolitan Area. This is now expected to change as soon as this weekend, as a significant winter weather event has begun to move east.

gfsfv3 1 16 19 102hr mslp — The evening run of the FV3 GFS computer model on January 16, 2019. Any slight shift to the east or south with this storm could mean extremely high snow totals closer to, or even south of, I-95. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Snow will quickly develop and intensify as it moves into the Tri-State Area late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, bringing with it rapid accumulations on most surfaces. However, the position of the storm will dictate if and when many locations will see a changeover to sleet, ice, or rain.

At the moment, it appears that locations north of the city and I-95 will experience this transition as early as 9 am Sunday, allowing for potentially significant ice accretions on many surfaces by noon Sunday.

Whether or not the precipitation remains frozen or becomes rain during the day, snow and ice will redevelop by the afternoon as temperatures drop and winds increase Sunday night. It is also important to note that, regardless of the direct impacts of the storm, temperatures will fall to near below zero throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England by early Monday morning. This rapid refreezing could mean any liquid precipitation that falls may become ice on roads, trees, and power lines quickly after the storm exits the area.

nam12km 1 16 19 84hr — The evening run of the NAM 12km computer model on January 16, 2019. This particular run suggests a delayed transition from snow to ice or rain around NYC, meaning snow accumulations could run much higher than currently expected. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Due to the uncertain nature of the this storm, Weather 360 is currently forecasting anywhere between 4 and 12+ inches north of I-95, with anywhere between 3 and 8+ inches to its east and south. Forecasts will be refined in the coming days as the center of the storm develops, but for now, be prepared for a storm that could knock out power, make travel dangerous for an extended period of time, and dump a significant amount of snow, sleet, ice, and rain.

First Accumulating Snow of Season Expected Thursday

November 13, 2018November 14, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, First snow, Heavy Snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Nor'easter, snow, snow event, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.

This is the first Weather 360 forecast made with the aid of a new forecasting algorithm tailored to the NYC Metro Area. Updated as of 8 pm ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.

The potential for heavy snow to develop quickly Thursday afternoon over the NYC Metro Area.

As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.

Largest Winter Storm of Season Takes Aim at NYC Tri-State

March 7, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged >12" snow, Blizzard, Blizzard-Like Conditions, connecticut, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Low Pressure, Major Snowstorm, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Nor'easter, Northeast, NYC Metro Area, Power Outages, snow, Winter Storm WarningLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

Snow Accumulation 18-3 — Weather 360 NYC Tri-State 72 Hour Snowfall Forecast as of 9:30 AM today.

While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.

Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.

Strong Nor’easter to Develop Friday

February 28, 2018February 28, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Damaging Winds, Dangerous conditions, heavy rain, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Low Pressure, Major Storm, Nor'easter, snow, Snow Storm, Strong StormsLeave a comment

A strong Nor’easter is expected to develop from a center of low pressure that will move from the Midwest over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy precipitation will likely create power outages and hazardous travel on Friday.

NAM Radar Friday March 2 2018 Noon — NAM 3km computer model display of potential weather conditions at noon on Friday. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

While it is certain that a Nor’easter will strengthen rapidly over the Mid Atlantic coast, the type of precipitation received in the NYC Metropolitan Area will depend on its proximity to the coast. As of this afternoon, the ECMWF (European) and the NAM (North American) computer models are forecasting enough cold air to transition the heavy precipitation into snow by 10 am or noon Friday. Snow totals in locations where the precipitation does change over to snow could see snow totals exceeding half a foot to over a foot of snow by Saturday morning.

Snow Accumulation 18-2 — Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Total Forecast Graphic as of 4:00 PM ET 2/28/2018.

Blizzard Disrupts Travel As Paralyzing Cold Moves In

January 4, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged >12" snow, Extreme Cold, Major Blizzard, Major Snowstorm, Major Storm, Power OutagesLeave a comment

A significant winter storm has brought up to 12 inches or more of snow along with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph to the Northeast. Schools remain closed throughout southern New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut as wind speeds of 40 mph create wind chills approaching 25 below zero. The National Weather Service has issued wind chill advisories for the area warning of the potential for frostbite to occur within 30 minutes of exposure to the record-breaking low temperatures.

1 5 18 Temperatures NAM — Low temperatures are expected to approach 0 degrees throughout the area with wind chills reaching minus 20 by the morning.

Expect high winds to continue to create low visibility going into Friday afternoon with the potential for downed trees and tree limbs lasting until Sunday morning.