Snow has been falling for several hours in what may turn out to be 2019’s first significant nor’easter. Upwards of half a foot of snow is now expected throughout the entire New York City Metropolitan Area. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.
Over the past 24 hours, several computer models, such as the NAM3km and HDRPS (both detailed and accurate computer models) have zeroed in on this storm lasting from Sunday afternoon through Monday around 6 or 7 am ET. Both computer models have pointed to snow totals averaging about 5 to 9 inches in Manhattan, Long Island, New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.
While snow has been falling for some time now, roadways are only now beginning to become covered and particularly hazardous in some places. Other than up to several inches of snow on roadways by tomorrow morning, it is possible that because of warmer temperatures earlier Sunday, there may be small layers of ice beneath the snow. Although temperatures will warm to above freezing on Monday, rapid refreezing Monday afternoon may create black ice on roadways.
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are currently in effect for locations along the I-95 Corridor. While snow accumulations through Sunday morning will likely range from 3” to 6” across much of the NYC Metro Area, the possibility for greater snow totals does exist should the storm system shift to the west, as does the possibility for lower totals in the event that the storm shifts to the east.
As the center of low pressure continues to develop, snow has begun to fall across portions of southern New Jersey and is expected to impact our area starting sometime in the mid-morning Saturday. While snow totals will likely remain below the 10” mark, expect moderate snow from around noon to 8 pm Saturday with the potential for some bands of heavier snow around the mid-afternoon. Most roadways will begin to see light accumulations of snow within one to two hours of the first flakes, meaning that all roadways will become slippery by the afternoon and evening.
A low pressure system currently located over the Southeast is on its way northeastward, and is expected to impact large swaths of the East Coast tonight into early tomorrow morning, prompting winter weather advisories for locations across southern Connecticut and New York, as well as in parts of New Jersey. Expect the snow to create slick conditions for the morning commute, as it will quickly stick to the ground and pavement.
Weather 360 is forecasting a maximum snow accumulation of about 3 inches in locations close to the coast, with a trace to an inch of snow further inland.