Weather 360 – Weather 360

Multi-Day Winter Weather Event Kicks Off Meteorological Winter

December 1, 2019December 1, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, Freezing Rain, Ice, Long Island, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Sleet, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.

THE FREEZING LINE

This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.

INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.

Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.

Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

October 29, 2019November 12, 2019Posted in Weather 360, WinterTagged Climate, National Weather Service, Nor'easter, Weather360, Winter, Winter 2019 - 2020, winter storm, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite — Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

Hurricane Dorian: What You Need to Know

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019Posted in Major Storm, summer, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Catastrophe, Dangerous conditions, flooding, Florida, Georgia, High Winds, Hurricane, Hurricane Dorian, hurricane season, Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Major Hurricane, nhc, North Carolina, Potential for Significant Damage, South Carolina, Storm SurgeLeave a comment

Category 4 Major Hurricane Dorian is barreling towards the US East Coast. The storm, which has rapidly intensified over the past several hours, is expected to reach the Bahamas by Sunday afternoon.

What you need to know:

The Saffir-Simpson Scale:
Category 5: 157+ mph - Catastrophic Damage
Category 4: 130-156 mph - Catastrophic Damage
Category 3: 111 - 129 mph - Devastating Damage
Category 2: 96 - 110 mph - Extensive Damage
Category 1: 74 - 95 mph - Some Damage

As of the evening of August 30, 2019, Hurricane Dorian is a category 4 major hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph and a central pressure of 950 millibars.

The current National Hurricane Center forecast cone keeps Florida in the cross-hairs. This afternoon, computer model guidance shifted the projected storm path eastward, placing locations from Miami to as far north as South Carolina under the threat of winds well in excess of 100 mph, excessive rainfall, and significant storm surge.

NHC Hurricane Dorian.png — The National Hurricane Center’s official track guidance as of 8 PM EDT on August 30, 2019. Hurricane Warnings (red) and Hurricane Watches (pink) have been issued for the Bahamas. This graphic depicts the potential storm center paths – not the potential extent of storm impacts.

The 8 PM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center has a category 4 storm making landfall near Port Saint Lucie, Florida. While there continues to exist uncertainty in the track of this storm, should this occur, storm surge well in excess of 7-11+ feet is possible on the coast of central eastern Florida, with top sustained winds potentially exceeding 130 – 140 mph in a radius reaching tens of miles from the center of the storm.

Who in the United States mainland will bear the brunt of this storm is still unknown. The storm will make a turn northward as it is picked up by a ridge of high pressure situated over the western Atlantic. When this storm makes its turn northward is still uncertain.

It is vital that everyone on the US East Coast from Miami to South Carolina – and even further north – be prepared to act quickly ahead of this storm.

Please prepare now and stay updated on local guidance and evacuation information from the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov), the National Weather Service (weather.gov), and your local emergency management office.

Weather360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here and on our Facebook page.

Be prepared and stay safe!

2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 12, 2019May 12, 2019Posted in spring, summer, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged 2019 Hurricane Season, atlantic, Atlantic Hurricane Season, Hurricane, Hurricane Preparedness, hurricane season, Tropical Cyclone, Tropical StormLeave a comment

Colorado State University has recently released its 2019 Hurricane Season Outlook and is calling for a slightly below average hurricane season. The Colorado State University outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season has long been one of the staples used in the long-term forecasting of how violent or active a particular hurricane season will be.

This year, the CSU forecast (as of April) is calling for an expected total of 13 named tropical cyclones (the average is 12), 5 hurricanes (the average is 6), and 2 major hurricanes (the average is 3). This forecast is based on various points of data, including recent measurements indicating that the Tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than average for this time of year. Check out the full report here.

CANSIPS shear estimate 2 — Above are computer model forecasts, made available by TropicalTidbits.com, for this coming hurricane season. This particular model, the CanSIPS, is forecasting increased areas of wind shear (generally less favorable for hurricane development) across the lower Caribbean from August to November. This by does **not** rule out the presence or development of hurricanes or other cyclones in the Caribbean Sea.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30, during which time, as with any year, there will most likely be several potentially life-threatening cyclones in the basin. Despite the slightly reduced risk for tropical cyclones, please remain vigilant throughout the late spring, summer, and fall for further developments.

If you live in an area prone to hurricanes or tropical storms, now is the best time to get prepared. Ensure you have a proper emergency supplies kit and other essentials by visiting https://www.ready.gov.

Stay safe!

Snow Intensifies in Early March Storm

March 3, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged 8" of snow, black ice, Dangerous conditions, Heavy Snow, Major Snowstorm, Moderate Snow, radar, snow, Snow Storm, Winter Storm WarningLeave a comment

Snow has been falling for several hours in what may turn out to be 2019’s first significant nor’easter. Upwards of half a foot of snow is now expected throughout the entire New York City Metropolitan Area. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.

Radar 03032019 — National Weather Service radar image from about 9pm Eastern Time March 3, 2019. This image does not distinguish between liquid and frozen precipitation.

Snow Accumulation 19 - 3 3 — Weather 360’s final snow total forecast for this early March winter storm. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings calling for 4 to 8 inches of snow for many locations, especially those north of the city.

Over the past 24 hours, several computer models, such as the NAM3km and HDRPS (both detailed and accurate computer models) have zeroed in on this storm lasting from Sunday afternoon through Monday around 6 or 7 am ET. Both computer models have pointed to snow totals averaging about 5 to 9 inches in Manhattan, Long Island, New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.

4 dangerous — Weather 360 is forecasting roadways of all types, especially secondary and tertiary roadways, to become dangerous tonight into early tomorrow morning. Please exercise extreme caution while driving during the duration of this event.

While snow has been falling for some time now, roadways are only now beginning to become covered and particularly hazardous in some places. Other than up to several inches of snow on roadways by tomorrow morning, it is possible that because of warmer temperatures earlier Sunday, there may be small layers of ice beneath the snow. Although temperatures will warm to above freezing on Monday, rapid refreezing Monday afternoon may create black ice on roadways.

Stay safe!

Snow to Transition to Wintry Mix, Ice, and Rain Tuesday

February 11, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Ice, Power Outages, Road Hazards, Sleet, Slick Roads, snow, Spotty Power Outages, Widespread Power Outages, Winter, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories throughout the New York City Tri-State Area. Updated ice accumulation forecasts have indicated a much more significant level of ice accretion for locations to the north and west of the city, making for potentially dangerous roadway conditions Tuesday afternoon as well as setting up the possibility for isolated to potentially widespread power outages going into Tuesday night.

IceForecast02112019 — The National Weather Service’s ice accumulation forecast as of 8:41 pm EST on February 11, 2019.

Plan on steady snow developing by mid-morning Tuesday, with the potential for snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour in the first couple hours of the storm. While the exact timing of the transition from snow to wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain, and snow) depends heavily on specific location, most areas – excluding Long Island, where the transition could occur more rapidly and sooner than elsewhere – will see this changeover around the early to mid-afternoon.

warrior-forecast-snow-event-11-12-18 — The Weather 360 snowfall forecast for Tuesday, February 11, 2019. Snow totals will vary greatly based on proximity to the coast.

Roadways will become dangerous by early afternoon due to periods of heavy precipitation and ice accretion. Please avoid unnecessary travel during the worst of the storm, with extreme caution on both treated and untreated roadways due to ice, snow, and reduced visibility. Most locations should see conditions rapidly improve Wednesday as temperatures are expected to go above freezing.

Uncertainty Remains as Major Weekend Storm Nears

January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Extreme Cold, Freezing Rain, GFS, High Winds, Ice, Mid Atlantic, NAM, New England, New York City, New York Metro Area, Power Outages, rain, Sleet, snow, Snow StormLeave a comment

Aside from several inches in November, it has been ten months since there has been significant snowfall seen in the New York City Metropolitan Area. This is now expected to change as soon as this weekend, as a significant winter weather event has begun to move east.

gfsfv3 1 16 19 102hr mslp — The evening run of the FV3 GFS computer model on January 16, 2019. Any slight shift to the east or south with this storm could mean extremely high snow totals closer to, or even south of, I-95. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Snow will quickly develop and intensify as it moves into the Tri-State Area late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, bringing with it rapid accumulations on most surfaces. However, the position of the storm will dictate if and when many locations will see a changeover to sleet, ice, or rain.

At the moment, it appears that locations north of the city and I-95 will experience this transition as early as 9 am Sunday, allowing for potentially significant ice accretions on many surfaces by noon Sunday.

Whether or not the precipitation remains frozen or becomes rain during the day, snow and ice will redevelop by the afternoon as temperatures drop and winds increase Sunday night. It is also important to note that, regardless of the direct impacts of the storm, temperatures will fall to near below zero throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England by early Monday morning. This rapid refreezing could mean any liquid precipitation that falls may become ice on roads, trees, and power lines quickly after the storm exits the area.

nam12km 1 16 19 84hr — The evening run of the NAM 12km computer model on January 16, 2019. This particular run suggests a delayed transition from snow to ice or rain around NYC, meaning snow accumulations could run much higher than currently expected. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Due to the uncertain nature of the this storm, Weather 360 is currently forecasting anywhere between 4 and 12+ inches north of I-95, with anywhere between 3 and 8+ inches to its east and south. Forecasts will be refined in the coming days as the center of the storm develops, but for now, be prepared for a storm that could knock out power, make travel dangerous for an extended period of time, and dump a significant amount of snow, sleet, ice, and rain.

First Accumulating Snow of Season Expected Thursday

November 13, 2018November 14, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, First snow, Heavy Snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Nor'easter, snow, snow event, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.

This is the first Weather 360 forecast made with the aid of a new forecasting algorithm tailored to the NYC Metro Area. Updated as of 8 pm ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.

The potential for heavy snow to develop quickly Thursday afternoon over the NYC Metro Area.

As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.

Catastrophic and Unprecedented Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall in Florida

October 10, 2018October 10, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged Category 4, Category 4 Hurricane, Extreme Wind Warning, Florida, Florida Panhandle, Hurricane, Hurricane Michael, nhc, NOAA, Storm Surge, Storm Surge WarningsLeave a comment

The eye wall of the now 150 mph Hurricane Michael is making landfall near Panama City, Florida. This storm has rapidly increased in strength over the past 24, 48, and 72 hours to become a now unprecedented event in the history of the Florida Panhandle.

Hurricane Michael Image — Hurricane Michael, a strong Category 4 hurricane, making landfall several miles to the east of Panama City, Florida. (1:30 pm ET October 10, 2018)

The National Hurricane Center has forecasted storm surge to exceed 14 feet in some locations in the Big Bend region of northwestern Florida. The NHC has also extended Hurricane Warnings as far inland as southeastern Georgia, with Tropical Storm Warnings extending as far north as the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Weather.gov Hurricane Michael.png — Due to the fast-moving nature of Hurricane Michael, the storm will remain at tropical storm or hurricane strength as it traverses the Southeast United States. (Image Source: Weather.gov)

The National Weather Service has also extended Extreme Wind Warnings for locations from Panama City to Apalachicola as the eye wall continues to bring winds in excess of 130-150 mph onshore.

Hurricane Michael has made history, not only as being the first category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle, nor only with its being the lowest pressure (919 millibars) recorded in the area, but also with its having formed and struck in the month of October.

For more information regarding Hurricane Michael and its effects, please consult the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov, or the National Weather Service at http://www.weather.gov.

Stay safe!

Massive Hurricane Florence to Slam the Carolinas

September 12, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged Category 3, Category 4 Hurricane, Hurricane, Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Preparedness, Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Major Hurricane, NAM, North Carolina, South CarolinaLeave a comment

Hurricane Florence, now a major category 3 hurricane with winds in excess of 115 mph, is expected to restrengthen as it makes its way towards the coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to the northern Outer Banks in North Carolina, with Hurricane Watches extending as far south as Charleston.

Florence NHC Track 09 12 18.png — Official NHC track and wind field assessment as of 8:00 PM ET on September 12, 2018.

Although the effects of Hurricane Florence will begin to impact the Carolinas starting tomorrow afternoon, strong winds and heavy rain will continue to lash the region until the end of the weekend due to the storm’s unusual path.

Florence NAM 3KM Future Radar 09 12 18.png — This is the 18z 9/12/18 run of the NAM 3km computer model depicting an extremely intense Hurricane Florence approaching the Wilmington, NC area.

For the past several days, computer model guidance has shifted to suggesting that Hurricane Florence will begin to slow down and proceed to parallel the coastline come Friday evening. The storm’s unusual path will force extremely dangerous winds and storm surge across a swath of land extending from the Outer Banks to South Carolina, placing millions under the threat of life-threatening conditions. Unfortunately, these conditions will only be compounded and exacerbated by the upwards of 3 feet of rain forecasted to fall in some areas.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting winds to exceed 120 mph upon Hurricane Florence’s arrival near the coastline, with a storm surge exceeding 9-13 feet in some locations, making this storm extremely dangerous for those in its path.

If you have been ordered or asked to evacuate, please heed these orders immediately before it becomes too late to do so. All preparations for this storm should be completed immediately.

For more information, please consult the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or your local emergency management office.