Colorado State University has recently released its 2019 Hurricane Season Outlook and is calling for a slightly below average hurricane season. The Colorado State University outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season has long been one of the staples used in the long-term forecasting of how violent or active a particular hurricane season will be.
This year, the CSU forecast (as of April) is calling for an expected total of 13 named tropical cyclones (the average is 12), 5 hurricanes (the average is 6), and 2 major hurricanes (the average is 3). This forecast is based on various points of data, including recent measurements indicating that the Tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than average for this time of year. Check out the full report here.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30, during which time, as with any year, there will most likely be several potentially life-threatening cyclones in the basin. Despite the slightly reduced risk for tropical cyclones, please remain vigilant throughout the late spring, summer, and fall for further developments.
If you live in an area prone to hurricanes or tropical storms, now is the best time to get prepared. Ensure you have a proper emergency supplies kit and other essentials by visiting https://www.ready.gov.
Four years ago, in September of 2014, Weather 360 was first launched with one goal: To provide local and accurate weather forecasts. Since then, Weather 360 has served tens of thousands of people from dozens of countries around the world as it has expanded coverage from the 20 million people who live in the New York City Tri-State Area, to the entire Tropical Atlantic during Hurricane Season, and occasionally beyond.
Currently, after spending several seasons working on new methods of refining forecasting methods, Weather 360 is pleased to announce that its own systematic and statistical approach to weather forecasting – derived from data collected and analyzed in the New York City area – will be employed this winter to help facilitate the creation of our own forecasts. Formed from a variety of sources – whether it be from real-time data, shorter-range mesoscale computer models, or longer-range global computer models – the methods Weather 360 continues to expand upon to create and provide weather forecasts has only improved.
Weather 360 has also undergone many changes since it first came into existence: Beginning with launching a Facebook page nearly two years ago, reformatting its – well – format, and working on a YouTube channel that will effectively deliver information that cannot always be so easily delivered via text. Furthermore, to celebrate its fourth anniversary, Weather 360, in an effort to extend its ability to give weather-related information and advice to more people, has begun providing certain services in French and English for those who reside in French-speaking regions of The Caribbean, Canada, and The United States.
Once again, Weather 360 would like to thank all of its visitors for relying on us to provide their weather.
BREAKING NEWS: A 7.0 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC RIDGE, THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT FOR ANY LOCATION SURROUNDING THIS AREA.
Tropical Depression Bill
As Bill continues to swirl its way into Oklahoma, the rain bands extending into the Gulf of Mexico from its center are beginning to move northward as well. The rain from this system is the biggest threat thus far for the remnants of Bill, with up to 8 inches of rain in southern Oklahoma, to several inches of rain expected to fall over a 500 mile long path across the United States over the next few days, to the possibility of severe thunderstorms, Bill has proved itself to be one large rain maker.
Okay, okay, we know that there will be large amounts of rain, but how will this affect me? Well, as Bill dumps its remaining moisture over the US, already flooded rivers from just a few weeks ago that have not already returned to normal will pose a potentially catastrophic threat to anyone living on or near shorelines to rivers or streams. Also, in areas such as the Northeast, occasional downpours may cause flash flooding, which can take anyone by surprise.
Now that we have said how Bill may affect you, Weather 360 hopes that if you are to be impacted by any element of this storm, that you will be safe and heed all advisories, watches, and warnings set out by your local NWS (National Weather Service) office(s).
As Hurricane Season 2015 approaches the two and a half week mark, there is still no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Besides Ana about a month ago now, there has been NO tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.
Why the slow start?
Well, in general, the peak of Hurricane Season is in early September, and if you look at your calendar right now, that is still about a whole 3 months away. Anyways, June is normally not the most active month of any Hurricane Season, but from here on out to September, the probability of tropical development will be (on a historical average) increasing. Not only this, but also at the moment there is no tropical enhancement wave (to put it more simply) over any portion of the Atlantic ocean.
That’s all for now, and we’ll keep you updated as Hurricane Season 2015 progresses!
Over the next few hours, the very well defined and string tropical disturbance near the coast of the Carolinas may develop into a strong tropical storm. With sustained winds already hitting 50 MPH and a very closed and well defined center of circulation, the NHC will have to begin issuing watches and warnings for the coastal areas of the Southeast (and even potentially the rest of the East Coast.) This storm’s intensity will likely stay as a medium to strong Tropical Storm, and will likely track up through the edges of the Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean near Long Island, before likely veering off to the east with the high pressures.
Have our look at the following graphic from Weather 360, the yellow means potential landfall locations from this storm. We apologize for the clarity of the following image.
IF YOU live on or near the coast of the Carolinas, please take IMMEDIATE ACTION according to the NHC and YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER. Please take all appropriate actions suggested by both your local center and the NHC to keep you and your property safe from the storm.
Have a look at the 12 UTC run of the CMC computer model.
What your seeing is the 12 UTC run from the CMC model, which, if you focus into the Southeastern Coast, you will see a simulated infrared image that depicts a well-developed cyclone with what appears to be an eye to the storm (meaning that this could be near/ at hurricane status soon.)
Due to this storm’s likelihood of being torn apart at the upper levels by a dip in the Jet Stream, it will likely originate as a Sub-Tropical system, with the potential to gain some tropical characteristics before its possible landfall there soon after. Although the CMC model is predicting a strong system to appear, most of the computer models are keeping this likely at or slightly below Tropical Storm stage. Still, at the moment, the forecasts are all over the place.
For anyone living on or near the Southeastern Coast, stay tuned to any possible announcements from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) regarding this system. You can also visit our Hurricanes 360 page for a view at our highlighted areas that may be at risk, be we do stress to always consult with the NHC before doing anything.