Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon. With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two). In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area. Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.
An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed. It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development. It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200. Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.
After a two month developing phase, Weather360 is back up and running even better than ever. Over the following weeks, a new Severe Weather Forecasting System will be implemented to give specialized information regarding the New York City Metro Area. Along with this, we plan to provide more insight into oncoming storm systems that may impact the Metro Area as well as large storm systems that may deliver severe outbreaks across the country.
This is the Third Edition of the NYC Area Week Outlook by Weather360
Monday: A wintry mix in the morning will transition to all rain by the afternoon. Total snow accumulations of up to a couple of inches are possible in some (mainly northern and eastern) portions of the area. Highs will hover around in the low to mid 40’s.
Tuesday: Highs dropping into the low to mid 30’s will be associated with clearing skies, making it seem much more like January than April.
Wednesday: High temperatures will peak in the mid 40’s as skies become increasingly cloudy, due to an incoming low pressure system.
Thursday: Rain associated with a low pressure system moving in from the west will bring in much more seasonable temperatures, with a high in the upper 50’s. This rain could spell the end to winter for many Ski Resorts throughout the Northeast.
Friday: Cooler temperatures along with clearing skies will make for a somewhat more seasonable day.
The Weekend: Highs in the 40’s along with mainly clear skies will make for a brisk, cool, early spring weekend.
In the event of an emergency weather situation, please consult the NWS at weather.gov and/or your local Emergency Management Office.
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches for portions of Eastern New England. A potentially significant winter weather event is expected to impact the I-95 corridor from New Jersey to Maine starting at the end of the week. As this is a late-season (or early depending on how you look at it, early-season) snow event, it will likely bring a heavier, wetter snow along with some mixed precipitation.
Starting Sunday afternoon, snow will start accumulating mostly on uncovered dirt surfaces, before quickly moving onto grassy and paved surfaces as the ground cools overtime. Total accumulations will range from an inch or two, to nearly 10 inches in some spots, with more snow further to the east.
More on this event on our Winter Weather Center page
Starting tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to bring heavy rains, high winds, hail, and potentially some tornadoes from Eastern Oklahoma to Alabama. This same storm system is expected to move across the country and will eventually bring some rain to the East Coast as well.
More on this outbreak on our Severe Weather Center page.
Officially at least, the 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has started, but, unless a major storm (or at least the first significant disturbance) develops, there is not much to talk about in terms of tropical cyclones. For the first time in a very long time, the Tropical Atlantic Basin has received its first tropical cyclone before the Eastern Pacific has.
Now for the update on the heat wave in New York City and the Tri-State Area…
With temperatures in the 80’s and humidity percentages close to 99%, the majority of those going outdoors will likely feel fairly hot and sweaty. The heat index in some areas (how hot it actually feels) is in the 90’s. For those who are sensitive to the extreme heat, please heed all advisories set out by the National Weather Service (NWS.)
Stay hydrated and be safe!
Have a look at our graphic, the red line on the coast means that imminent landfall is expected in the next two days.
Our graphic shows Invest 90L, which will then likely be Ana, moving into the SC/NC coastline, but due to the current run of the European computer model, we are having this storm ride up the coast a bit further, then veering out to sea before having a chance to make landfall in New York and New England.
At the moment, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is saying there is a 90% chance of development for this Invest 90L over the next 2 days. Due to this storm being more associated with the Jet Stream, this storm will likely be first classified as a Sub-Tropical Storm, but don’t be fooled by the “Sub”, these storms are the equivalent of a regular Tropical Storm, and if they break free of whatever holds them back, can quickly strengthen.
For preparedness tips for this storm, consult the NHC or your local emergency management center to stay safe.
Stay safe and be prepared!
Over the next few hours, the very well defined and string tropical disturbance near the coast of the Carolinas may develop into a strong tropical storm. With sustained winds already hitting 50 MPH and a very closed and well defined center of circulation, the NHC will have to begin issuing watches and warnings for the coastal areas of the Southeast (and even potentially the rest of the East Coast.) This storm’s intensity will likely stay as a medium to strong Tropical Storm, and will likely track up through the edges of the Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean near Long Island, before likely veering off to the east with the high pressures.
Have our look at the following graphic from Weather 360, the yellow means potential landfall locations from this storm. We apologize for the clarity of the following image.
IF YOU live on or near the coast of the Carolinas, please take IMMEDIATE ACTION according to the NHC and YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER. Please take all appropriate actions suggested by both your local center and the NHC to keep you and your property safe from the storm.
Be smart, and stay safe!
The computer models in a way have shifted overnight, instead of a track more into South Carolina, the majority of the computer models are suggesting that this storm will likely impact northern parts of South Carolina, and mostly coastal areas in North Carolina.
What is this talk about Invest 90L heading northwards?
The computer models are beginning to suggest that Invest 90L has the potential to become a Tropical Storm before landfall, but also some of the models are also beginning to suggest that this storm could impact the Outer Banks, then move further northward as a weak Tropical Depression and merge with an incoming system to bring more rain to the Northeast United States.
Weather 360 urges anyone living on or near the coast in areas that may be impacted by this storm later on this week to at least think about potentially evacuating due to storm surge and flooding or having an emergency hurricane kit, which is shown in an example on the side of this page. Please though, BEFORE you make any decisions, consult the NHC’s website, nhc.noaa.gov, to see what plan is best for you.
Why the title one may ask? Well, it’s because over the past several days the GFS and the ECMWF computer models have been hinting at the development of a tropical disturbance soon near the eastern coast of the United States. (Also, this hurricane season, although expected to be below average, could potentially not be very happy for some…)
The potential storm does not look like, at the moment, to be a threat to the coastline, but since this storm has survived the changes of the computer models over the past several days, we will continue to update you when more significant developments occur.
For anyone who would like to know, this storm does not appear to be, again at the moment, to strengthen into a full fledged hurricane, but we will update you as the forecasts become clearer and clearer.