This time around it is still the same, a below average Hurricane Season 2015…
The Weather Channel has just released their April Hurricane Season forecast calling for 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and only 1 major hurricane. This, according to their article on their website about their newest forecast, implies that an El Nino, which normally inhibits Tropical Atlantic Basin cyclones, will have a large role to play in this year’s amount of tropical cyclones.
Weather 360 has been looking at the longer range forecasts, the April forecasts made by places such as Colorado State and TSR, and large factors already showing themselves in the Atlantic and Pacific, and we have been starting to see a growing potential for a less active Hurricane Season.
That’s all for now and we’ll keep you up to date on all of the latest developments on this Hurricane Season.
In the NYC Metro Area especially, in a couple of hours the potential for severe, and potentially life threatening conditions will come into play. If you have not already noticed or have not yet been outdoors, the temperatures have begun to cool and wind speeds have also begun to pick up ahead of the storm.
What will these severe storms include?
First of all, a severe storm normally needs to have the following to be classified as a severe storm; hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain (for more, go to our Terms to Know page), which happens to be the exact components of the storms expected to line up and sweep through nearly all 31 counties in the NYC Metro Area.
Wait a second, most of those components aren’t deadly, right?
Well not exactly, because thinking about the effects of hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, you may come to realize that hail can damage windows, vehicles, and cause serious injury, gusty winds can knock down trees and power lines, lightning can electrocute items and people, and last, but now least, heavy rains can create flash flooding. So know that you know some of the effects of the components that create a severe thunderstorm, you will hopefully know how to properly protect yourself and you property from one.
Be on the lookout for any severe thunderstorm watches or warnings, and stay safe!
Over the next several hours thunderstorms will begin to develop in the New York City metro area. Some of these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds, so please if you are caught in a severe storm take cover immediately to avoid any injury. Today there’s also the potential for flash flooding across all low lying areas and in areas near rivers or streams. Later today there’s also the potential for gusty winds to cause some downed trees and power outages. Be aware that at almost any time the National Weather Service may issue an advisory, a watch, or a warning.
Hurricane Season 2015
Although most of the major sources for forecasting the next hurricane season have been predicting a quiet, below average hurricane season, Weather 360 would like to remind everyone that it only takes one hurricane landfall to make a big difference across a wide area that could be anywhere on the Atlantic Basin coast from Maine to Texas.
Today as the storms move out, clear skies and mild temperatures move in. In and around Manhattan, temperatures will max out around 65 degrees, with not much difference even in temperature in further north counties.
Although conditions will be nice today, tomorrow some more showers will be moving through later on in the day. Some of these showers could develop into a thunderstorm or two. So don’t put those umbrellas away yet, rain is still coming…
According to all the sources’ listed above April forecasts, there will be a below average Hurricane Season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) program is predicting anywhere in between 8 and 15 total named storms, 3 to 9 hurricanes, and of which 1 to 4 would be major hurricanes. What the TSR is predicting though is overall a 20% less active Hurricane Season than the historical long range average.
Here is what the overall highest percentage expectancy for all the sources mentioned (put together by Wikipedia)
||April 9, 2015
||April 9, 2015
||April 13, 2015
An average Hurricane Season looks something more like this:
12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
So, you can see that there is some uncertainty in the exact number of storms there will be this Hurricane Season, but what all these programs are still urging is for anyone and everyone on or near the coast to be prepared for a possible hurricane strike, because it only takes one to create mass devastation.
Tonight, a large storm system moving in from the south and west will begin to move into the NYC area. The storms will consist first of mainly rain, but then along with the rain, thunder and lightning will begin to set in. This was a short post to lay out what will mainly occur tomorrow to help you be prepared.
Across the eastern portions of the US, rain and thunderstorms are moving northeastward, moving closer to their last US destination, the Northeast, that including the NYC Metro Area.
What do we think in terms of timing?
Tomorrow the heaviest rain and thunderstorms will likely occur near NYC around noon, but the rain will start a couple of hours earlier, steadily increasing until it beings to taper off around 4 PM (in the NYC Metro Area.) Although that rain will end before dusk, some thunderstorms on the back side of the system could impact some isolated areas later during the night tomorrow.
Over the next several days, a new system for forecasting that Weather 360 will be using will start to create more accurate and advanced forecasts.
We’ll keep you posted, stay safe!
For those who may not know, the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st and ends on November 30th.
Although this is only one computer model (GFS) and the latest possible hour run (384 hrs in advance), a possible tropical disturbance in one model still can, even if it is very far out, remind everyone that Hurricane Season is approaching.
Wait, what? The GFS model is predicting a tropical cyclone soon?
Well, at the moment since the time frame is extremely far our, this does not look likely, but the latest run of the GFS computer model for 384 hours is showing a small and weak disturbance near the Puerto Rico to the north. DO NOT, WE REPEAT, DO NOT, TAKE THIS AS A 100% GUARANTEE, because at the moment, the odds of this are extremely low. The point of this message though, is that Hurricane Season is literally around the corner, and that even outside of the Hurricane Season there still is the possibility for some tropical activity.
Weather 360 will keep you posted as more information comes out, but remember, at the moment, what the GFS computer model is showing has an extremely low chance of being anything significant. Although, it still is never to early to prepare for Hurricane Season if you live on the coast.
Across the Northeast, the National Weather Service (NWS) has had to issue red flag warnings and hazardous weather outlooks due to the very dry (and warmer than average) conditions later on today creating the conditions that spread wild and brush fires due to any type of ignition. So, although today will be a very warm day, the NWS does not recommend anyone in the areas with red flag warnings or any type of advisory or alert to use matches or any type of ignition source outdoors due to risk of fire spread. So please refer to weather.gov to see if your area is at risk today.
So, enjoy the above average temperatures today, but be aware that there is an elevated risk for the spread of fire today.
Early next week a large rain event will spread from the Midwest and Southeast into the Northeast. But what you may not have known is that the same rain event will bring some of the frozen, fluffy stuff to Maine. Although not much is currently expected, the snow has the potential to cause some trouble on roadways (including I-95), from Monday evening on into early Wednesday.
Now back to the rainy side of this storm system. Early on in the week the rain that will move in has the possibility to include some thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain, this threat exists from Maine nearly all the way down the Eastern Seaboard outside of the Northeast.
In this case both the ECMWF computer model and the GFS computer model are agreeing that there will be a large rain (and some snow) event in the Northeast early on this week.
We’ll keep you updated as more information comes out, but enjoy the above average temperatures tomorrow!