Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon. With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two). In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area. Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.
An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed. It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development. It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200. Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service has issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the New York City Metro Area. This comes after a day of pouring rain that has saturated the ground. These storms will impact the area over the following several hours and may bring wind gusts of upwards of 60 mph along with lightning and some hail. Weather 360 advises to heed all warnings and to go inside if not already to avoid potential injury.
This is the First Edition of the NYC Area Week Outlook by Weather360
Monday: Rain moving across the area will be accompanied by cooler temperatures hovering in and around the 40’s.
Tuesday: Rain will taper off towards the late morning leading to cloudy conditions with highs maybe reaching the 50’s.
Wednesday: Some showers with temperatures around the 60 degree mark will create a more spring-like feel again.
Thursday: Some light rain showers will bring slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 50’s.
Friday: Clear skies are expected along with temperatures still in the mid 50’s.
Weekend: Saturday will be much like Friday, but the potential for a significant Nor’easter exists starting Sunday, lasting into early next week. This year, Punxsutawney Phil may actually end up being wrong, as cooler temperatures may create some wintry precipitation across the area, but nothing is set in stone quite yet.
In the event of an emergency weather situation, please consult the NWS at weather.gov and/or your local Emergency Management Office.
Today in and around New York City, temperatures will be around 70 degrees with some rain, but next week, especially around midweek, a very intense heat wave is expected to arrive.
This heat wave will not only bring heat indexes in NYC to rise above 90, but across the East Coast temperatures will be above normal for this time of year with a very high humidity. Temperatures in places such as D.C. could reach 90, and the heat indexes could soar into the triple digits. Although this heat wave will strike next week, it is not expected to last very long, by the end of the week and the weekend, some rain will arrive in the NYC area to cool things off by several degrees.
Remember to stay hydrated!
As Bill made landfall south of Galveston, Texas yesterday, it began its track to to Oklahoma. Although Bill, now a Tropical Depression, has weakened, it is expected to stay organized as it is and even strengthen slightly before weakening while dumping the majority of its moisture on southeastern Oklahoma. In areas such as northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma, rain amounts could range anywhere from 4 to 8 inches, potentially causing extreme flooding of streams, rivers, and low lying areas susceptible to inland flooding. At the moment, Bill still remains fairly organized and is moving across Texas into Oklahoma, before significantly weakening to a remnant low and traversing the rest of the country until reaching the Northeast. Once in the Northeast, the remnants of Bill will dump any last bit of moisture it has in the form of rain showers and the occasional thunderstorm.
Recently, rivers in the areas that are expected to see rain soon have flooded, some breaking historic records, this means that there is the possibility of large flooding to happen again with the heavy rains expected to come, so keep yourself safe by heeding all warnings set out by your local NWS (National Weather Service) office.
Current Invest 91L (As of 7:00 PM EST June 15th 2015), is now expected to become Tropical Storm Bill later on this night before making landfall somewhere between Port Lavaca, Texas and Galveston, Texas. This storm already has sustained winds of about 45 MPH and is quickly developing a more organized center of circulation. This storm will dump anywhere between 2 and 8 inches of rain from the Texas coastline to Indiana and Ohio before losing all of its remaining moisture over land. Current invest 91L will also likely maintain its strength for several hundred miles inland as a Tropical Storm with winds above 40 MPH and torrential rains until it reaches the Missouri border with Kansas. For anyone living on or near the coastline between Galveston and Port Lavaca, please consult the NHC or your local emergency management center, and for those who live near or on the shoreline of a river or stream that is prone to flooding, please keep yourself up-to-date with any advisories, watches, or even warnings that may come your way as a result of this storm system, and do not forget to finish up any emergency preparations before the storm hits you.
We will keep you up to date and for detailed information regarding the soon to be Tropical Storm Bill, consult first with the NHC, then come on over to our Hurricanes 360 page to see what we here at Weather 360 could do to help you ride out the storm.
*We would also like to apologize for the mix up on our last post, Invest 91L is the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 90L was Tropical Storm Ana in early May before it developed.
The computer models in a way have shifted overnight, instead of a track more into South Carolina, the majority of the computer models are suggesting that this storm will likely impact northern parts of South Carolina, and mostly coastal areas in North Carolina.
What is this talk about Invest 90L heading northwards?
The computer models are beginning to suggest that Invest 90L has the potential to become a Tropical Storm before landfall, but also some of the models are also beginning to suggest that this storm could impact the Outer Banks, then move further northward as a weak Tropical Depression and merge with an incoming system to bring more rain to the Northeast United States.
Weather 360 urges anyone living on or near the coast in areas that may be impacted by this storm later on this week to at least think about potentially evacuating due to storm surge and flooding or having an emergency hurricane kit, which is shown in an example on the side of this page. Please though, BEFORE you make any decisions, consult the NHC’s website, nhc.noaa.gov, to see what plan is best for you.
Its true! Snow was observed in parts of Connecticut and New York around noon today. So the question is, is winter really over?
Well, today was more of an anomaly, where some cold air mixed in with some precipitation to make some snow and sleet. There were no known accumulations, and temperatures will also be warmer tomorrow and this weekend.
In the NYC Metro Area especially, in a couple of hours the potential for severe, and potentially life threatening conditions will come into play. If you have not already noticed or have not yet been outdoors, the temperatures have begun to cool and wind speeds have also begun to pick up ahead of the storm.
What will these severe storms include?
First of all, a severe storm normally needs to have the following to be classified as a severe storm; hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain (for more, go to our Terms to Know page), which happens to be the exact components of the storms expected to line up and sweep through nearly all 31 counties in the NYC Metro Area.
Wait a second, most of those components aren’t deadly, right?
Well not exactly, because thinking about the effects of hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, you may come to realize that hail can damage windows, vehicles, and cause serious injury, gusty winds can knock down trees and power lines, lightning can electrocute items and people, and last, but now least, heavy rains can create flash flooding. So know that you know some of the effects of the components that create a severe thunderstorm, you will hopefully know how to properly protect yourself and you property from one.
Be on the lookout for any severe thunderstorm watches or warnings, and stay safe!
Today as the storms move out, clear skies and mild temperatures move in. In and around Manhattan, temperatures will max out around 65 degrees, with not much difference even in temperature in further north counties.
Although conditions will be nice today, tomorrow some more showers will be moving through later on in the day. Some of these showers could develop into a thunderstorm or two. So don’t put those umbrellas away yet, rain is still coming…