A cold front moving in from the plains is expected to arrive in our area tomorrow evening. The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM computer model), forecasts a line of thunderstorms to develop over central Pennsylvania and New York before making its way over the NYC Tri-State by 8 pm ET.
Weather360 is forecasting frequent lightning, hail, high winds, and potentially a few tornadoes in these storms tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts an ‘Elevated Risk’ for severe weather tomorrow, meaning that strong storms are likely with the potential for isolated tornadoes.
Already today the main parameters for severe storm development (CAPE, shear, helicity, and ML LCL) are already favorable for strong thunderstorms. Please have access to a cellphone, television, or radio tomorrow in the event that the National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm, flash flood, or tornado warning. Tornadoes can and do occur in this area of the country, please take shelter immediately should a warning be issued for your area.
Starting this afternoon, the potential for Severe Weather exists across the New York City Metropolitan Area. The first storms will begin to appear over the western portions of the Metro Area in the early afternoon, before becoming more numerous and greater in size by the early evening. At the moment, it is beginning to appear that there will be at least one line of storms that will form over The Hudson Valley around 3:00-5:00 PM EST.
It will be important to note that Weather360 is increasing the threat for Severe Weather today to 60% across the Metro Area, with the threat for isolated spin-ups and tornadoes at 22%. The primary threat today will be the threat for small hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. It is advisable to keep a weather radio nearby and to keep a lookout for storms in your area.
Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon. With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two). In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area. Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.
An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed. It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development. It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200. Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.
Over the next several hours, more lines of potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to line up across portions of the Upper Midwest, bringing hail, strong winds, and some isolated tornadoes. As of 2:30 CDT, lines of heavy rain and thunderstorms are developing over portions of Southern Iowa, and are expected to make their way east into Illinois, parts of Wisconsin, and parts of Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has most of Western Illinois under an ‘enhanced risk’, meaning that the potential for multiple severe storms does exist, and that the threat of tornadoes is elevated as well.
ALERT: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 2:00 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE NYC METRO AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AREA.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact the area later tonight. Moderate to heavy rain has already begun to fall across some portions of the area. By 11:45 PM tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to envelop the area, potentially bringing hail, strong winds, lighting, flooding, and even some tornadoes along with it.
Look out for emergency weather warnings that the NWS may issue over the following several hours.
As of 00 UTC, 8 PM EDT: Thunderstorms moving to the southeast from western portions of Virginia are maintaining enough strength to produce storms capable of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain as to classify them as severe. Thunderstorms developing in upper portions of the Midwest have the potential to produce tornadoes and more severe weather as night approaches, these thunderstorms are all moving to the east-southeast.
The Tropics: Newly formed Tropical Storm Claudette has maximum sustained winds of about 50 MPH and is moving to the Northeast off of the Mid Atlantic coast to the southeast of Nantucket. The storm is expected to make landfall near Nova Scotia as a Tropical Depression with some winds and rains, along with rip currents.
Tomorrow’s forecast: Thunderstorms developing in the Midwest will have moved far enough east to begin to affect locations in and around NYC and other locations along the I-95 Corridor. With a high temperature hovering around the mid 80’s and clouds moving in early on in the day, the heat index is likely to be lower than that of yesterday, meaning that temperatures will not feel as hot as they did earlier today. Later on tomorrow, more showers will start to move in and the potential for thunderstorms, some occasionally severe, increases.
For more information on weather across the United States, the Tropics, and more, watch our latest YouTube video as the channel Weather 360, and to start the discussion, visit us and post on our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/weather360.net
ALERT: OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS, A VERY INTENSE AND SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NYC AREA, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES.
An enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes does exist today now for the NYC Metro Area, this means there is an elevated likelihood, or enhanced likelihood of 1-2 inch in diameter hail, frequent lightning, and a few potential tornadoes. The enhanced risk set out by the SPC (spc.noaa.gov), also advises that due to an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, that everyone keeps an eye to the sky and to any watches or warnings that are set out by the NWS/NOAA. Here at Weather 360 we advise this as well, but also that you do NOT ignore watches or warnings and common sense, such as “going indoors as thunder roars”, or to take over immediately if there is a potential threat to life due to a weather event.
Please stay tuned to Weather 360, but remember to keep an eye to the sky and to check the NWS periodically for any new watches or warnings that may regard you personally.
The severe thunderstorms that rolled across the Northeast yesterday came into the vicinity of NYC in the afternoon hours, bringing down temperatures by as much as 25 degrees, and creating some localized river and stream flooding.
Yesterday’s severe storms that impacted southern parts of Connecticut New York brought with it hail the size of quarters and frequent cloud to ground lightning, not to mention the torrential rains again.
For the NYC Metro Area in general, the probability of there being severe thunderstorms will greatly increase over the next few months. So yesterday may have been the beginning of the next round of thunderstorms that will span across the coming months.
For more information on coming severe thunderstorms, consult the National Weather Service (NWS).
In the NYC Metro Area especially, in a couple of hours the potential for severe, and potentially life threatening conditions will come into play. If you have not already noticed or have not yet been outdoors, the temperatures have begun to cool and wind speeds have also begun to pick up ahead of the storm.
What will these severe storms include?
First of all, a severe storm normally needs to have the following to be classified as a severe storm; hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain (for more, go to our Terms to Know page), which happens to be the exact components of the storms expected to line up and sweep through nearly all 31 counties in the NYC Metro Area.
Wait a second, most of those components aren’t deadly, right?
Well not exactly, because thinking about the effects of hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, you may come to realize that hail can damage windows, vehicles, and cause serious injury, gusty winds can knock down trees and power lines, lightning can electrocute items and people, and last, but now least, heavy rains can create flash flooding. So know that you know some of the effects of the components that create a severe thunderstorm, you will hopefully know how to properly protect yourself and you property from one.
Be on the lookout for any severe thunderstorm watches or warnings, and stay safe!
Over the next several hours thunderstorms will begin to develop in the New York City metro area. Some of these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds, so please if you are caught in a severe storm take cover immediately to avoid any injury. Today there’s also the potential for flash flooding across all low lying areas and in areas near rivers or streams. Later today there’s also the potential for gusty winds to cause some downed trees and power outages. Be aware that at almost any time the National Weather Service may issue an advisory, a watch, or a warning.
Hurricane Season 2015
Although most of the major sources for forecasting the next hurricane season have been predicting a quiet, below average hurricane season, Weather 360 would like to remind everyone that it only takes one hurricane landfall to make a big difference across a wide area that could be anywhere on the Atlantic Basin coast from Maine to Texas.