Tropical Storm Philippe has merged with a cold front off the coast of Delaware. The new center of low pressure is rapidly intensifying and continuing to push tropical moisture northwards. The core of the storm, as forecasted by nearly all computer models over the past 24 hours, is developing rapidly and, once onshore, is expected to bring with it wind gusts that could reach hurricane force. Today also happens to be the five year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, and the six year anniversary of the Halloween Snowstorm of 2011. This storm, although not as strong as either of these two infamous events, shares multiple, peculiar characteristics with both storms, including but not limited to the ‘negative dip’ in the jet stream, an atmospheric condition responsible for Sandy’s ‘sharp left turn’ into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as its combining with another storm system to create a hybrid-superstorm.
The National Weather Service has issued a high wind warning for the entire NYC Metro Area, meaning that high winds will likely cause widespread power outages and will cause fallen items to block roadways. A flood warning is also in effect for the area, meaning that conditions are favorable for roadways and other low-lying locations to flood due to the excessive amount of rainfall. If travel is necessary, exercise extreme caution going into tonight and into tomorrow.
For more information, visit The National Weather Service at www.weather.gov.
A cold front moving in from the plains is expected to arrive in our area tomorrow evening. The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM computer model), forecasts a line of thunderstorms to develop over central Pennsylvania and New York before making its way over the NYC Tri-State by 8 pm ET.
Weather360 is forecasting frequent lightning, hail, high winds, and potentially a few tornadoes in these storms tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts an ‘Elevated Risk’ for severe weather tomorrow, meaning that strong storms are likely with the potential for isolated tornadoes.
Already today the main parameters for severe storm development (CAPE, shear, helicity, and ML LCL) are already favorable for strong thunderstorms. Please have access to a cellphone, television, or radio tomorrow in the event that the National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm, flash flood, or tornado warning. Tornadoes can and do occur in this area of the country, please take shelter immediately should a warning be issued for your area.
Today marks the first day of Weather 360’s Severe Weather Forecasts for 2017. Through October, we will provide up-to-date severe weather forecasts for the entire NYC Metro Area. More information and graphics can be found on our Weather Outlook page.
Due to atmospheric instability over the next following days, severe weather will pop up (mainly in the afternoons), across the Metro Area. This type of constant instability is not entirely common in the Northeast, as it only occurs when all the ingredients come together during the day (i.e. lifting parcels of moist air as well as a ‘trigger’ of sorts to jump start the storms), but due to a build up of heat and moisture, even winds coming off the Sound can create thunderstorms. Over the past several days, intense lightning storms have made night into day for certain portions of the Tri-State, and it was only several days ago when The National Weather Service confirmed a weak tornado touched down in North Haven, Connecticut.
The primary threat from these ‘pop-up storms’ is flash flooding and lightning, although it would be inadvisable to disregard this threat as nothing, as hail, high winds, as well as the potential for some isolated spin-ups does exist throughout the week.
Remember to stay alert and aware of all current threats and alerts, and make sure you alter your plans accordingly if thunderstorms are in the forecast.
Over the past hour and a half, a line of thunderstorms brought periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning to mostly northern portions of the Tri-State Area. Although this line of storms may have cooled things down a bit, there is yet another, larger line of thunderstorms that has the potential to bring even more severe weather to the Metro Area later on in the evening. With respect to the first line of storms, although they may not have gotten their act quite together when it comes to supercell development, they still packed a punch able to take down large branches, leaves, and lower visibility to less than a mile in some locations temporarily.
The line of storms that is expected to move into the Metro Area tonight will have even more ingredients necessary for Severe Weather Development in their favor. After the first line of storms earlier, the Mixed Layered CAPE, instead of dropping off, skyrocketed from 700-1,100 joules per kilogram, to 1,500-2,000 joules per kilogram. Along with this, there has been a notable increase in Effective Helicity as well as Effective Shear, indicating that stronger and more developed storms are on the way.
The most important thing to remember today is that the storms are not over, and that it will be important to have access to NOAA Weather Alerts via an NOAA Weather Alerts Radio or via Cellular Phone so you can stay informed if Severe Weather hits.
Starting this afternoon, the potential for Severe Weather exists across the New York City Metropolitan Area. The first storms will begin to appear over the western portions of the Metro Area in the early afternoon, before becoming more numerous and greater in size by the early evening. At the moment, it is beginning to appear that there will be at least one line of storms that will form over The Hudson Valley around 3:00-5:00 PM EST.
It will be important to note that Weather360 is increasing the threat for Severe Weather today to 60% across the Metro Area, with the threat for isolated spin-ups and tornadoes at 22%. The primary threat today will be the threat for small hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. It is advisable to keep a weather radio nearby and to keep a lookout for storms in your area.
ALERT: The National Weather Service in Albany, New York has issued a TORNADO WARNING in effect until 4:30 PM Eastern Standard Time. The National Weather Service is also maintaining a TORNADO WATCH for the entire NYC Metro Area until 10:00 PM EST July 1, 2016. Heed all warnings set out by the National Weather Service and take all necessary common sense precautions.
This evening into tonight, several rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to move through the NYC Metro Area, bringing with them damaging winds, hail, lightning, and torrential rains. The first round of storms has already produced several severe thunderstorms and one storm capable of producing a tornado. Please be advised that in order to receive up-to-date weather alerts and warnings, one will have to consult the National Weather Service via Weather Radio or online. Weather360 estimates there is a 66% chance for Severe Weather Development to continue throughout the NYC Metro Area going into tonight.
These storms are expected to continue for up to several hours, creating the possibility for widespread power outages and downed trees and tree limbs.
For more information, please consult the National Weather Service while we here at Weather360 will continue to inform you of upcoming threats via our YouTube Channel or right here at Weather360.net.
Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon. With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two). In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area. Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.
An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed. It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development. It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200. Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service has issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the New York City Metro Area. This comes after a day of pouring rain that has saturated the ground. These storms will impact the area over the following several hours and may bring wind gusts of upwards of 60 mph along with lightning and some hail. Weather 360 advises to heed all warnings and to go inside if not already to avoid potential injury.
After a two month developing phase, Weather360 is back up and running even better than ever. Over the following weeks, a new Severe Weather Forecasting System will be implemented to give specialized information regarding the New York City Metro Area. Along with this, we plan to provide more insight into oncoming storm systems that may impact the Metro Area as well as large storm systems that may deliver severe outbreaks across the country.