11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.
THE FREEZING LINE
This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.
INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.
Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.
Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.
Aside from several inches in November, it has been ten months since there has been significant snowfall seen in the New York City Metropolitan Area. This is now expected to change as soon as this weekend, as a significant winter weather event has begun to move east.
Snow will quickly develop and intensify as it moves into the Tri-State Area late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, bringing with it rapid accumulations on most surfaces. However, the position of the storm will dictate if and when many locations will see a changeover to sleet, ice, or rain.
At the moment, it appears that locations north of the city and I-95 will experience this transition as early as 9 am Sunday, allowing for potentially significant ice accretions on many surfaces by noon Sunday.
Whether or not the precipitation remains frozen or becomes rain during the day, snow and ice will redevelop by the afternoon as temperatures drop and winds increase Sunday night. It is also important to note that, regardless of the direct impacts of the storm, temperatures will fall to near below zero throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England by early Monday morning. This rapid refreezing could mean any liquid precipitation that falls may become ice on roads, trees, and power lines quickly after the storm exits the area.
Due to the uncertain nature of the this storm, Weather 360 is currently forecasting anywhere between 4 and 12+ inches north of I-95, with anywhere between 3 and 8+ inches to its east and south. Forecasts will be refined in the coming days as the center of the storm develops, but for now, be prepared for a storm that could knock out power, make travel dangerous for an extended period of time, and dump a significant amount of snow, sleet, ice, and rain.
Four years ago, in September of 2014, Weather 360 was first launched with one goal: To provide local and accurate weather forecasts. Since then, Weather 360 has served tens of thousands of people from dozens of countries around the world as it has expanded coverage from the 20 million people who live in the New York City Tri-State Area, to the entire Tropical Atlantic during Hurricane Season, and occasionally beyond.
Currently, after spending several seasons working on new methods of refining forecasting methods, Weather 360 is pleased to announce that its own systematic and statistical approach to weather forecasting – derived from data collected and analyzed in the New York City area – will be employed this winter to help facilitate the creation of our own forecasts. Formed from a variety of sources – whether it be from real-time data, shorter-range mesoscale computer models, or longer-range global computer models – the methods Weather 360 continues to expand upon to create and provide weather forecasts has only improved.
Weather 360 has also undergone many changes since it first came into existence: Beginning with launching a Facebook page nearly two years ago, reformatting its – well – format, and working on a YouTube channel that will effectively deliver information that cannot always be so easily delivered via text. Furthermore, to celebrate its fourth anniversary, Weather 360, in an effort to extend its ability to give weather-related information and advice to more people, has begun providing certain services in French and English for those who reside in French-speaking regions of The Caribbean, Canada, and The United States.
Once again, Weather 360 would like to thank all of its visitors for relying on us to provide their weather.
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.
While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.
Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.
Due to atmospheric instability over the next following days, severe weather will pop up (mainly in the afternoons), across the Metro Area. This type of constant instability is not entirely common in the Northeast, as it only occurs when all the ingredients come together during the day (i.e. lifting parcels of moist air as well as a ‘trigger’ of sorts to jump start the storms), but due to a build up of heat and moisture, even winds coming off the Sound can create thunderstorms. Over the past several days, intense lightning storms have made night into day for certain portions of the Tri-State, and it was only several days ago when The National Weather Service confirmed a weak tornado touched down in North Haven, Connecticut.
The primary threat from these ‘pop-up storms’ is flash flooding and lightning, although it would be inadvisable to disregard this threat as nothing, as hail, high winds, as well as the potential for some isolated spin-ups does exist throughout the week.
Remember to stay alert and aware of all current threats and alerts, and make sure you alter your plans accordingly if thunderstorms are in the forecast.
After a two month developing phase, Weather360 is back up and running even better than ever. Over the following weeks, a new Severe Weather Forecasting System will be implemented to give specialized information regarding the New York City Metro Area. Along with this, we plan to provide more insight into oncoming storm systems that may impact the Metro Area as well as large storm systems that may deliver severe outbreaks across the country.