Winter – Weather 360

Multi-Day Winter Weather Event Kicks Off Meteorological Winter

December 1, 2019December 1, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, Freezing Rain, Ice, Long Island, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Sleet, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.

THE FREEZING LINE

This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.

INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.

Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.

Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

October 29, 2019November 12, 2019Posted in Weather 360, WinterTagged Climate, National Weather Service, Nor'easter, Weather360, Winter, Winter 2019 - 2020, winter storm, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite — Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

Snow to Transition to Wintry Mix, Ice, and Rain Tuesday

February 11, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Ice, Power Outages, Road Hazards, Sleet, Slick Roads, snow, Spotty Power Outages, Widespread Power Outages, Winter, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories throughout the New York City Tri-State Area. Updated ice accumulation forecasts have indicated a much more significant level of ice accretion for locations to the north and west of the city, making for potentially dangerous roadway conditions Tuesday afternoon as well as setting up the possibility for isolated to potentially widespread power outages going into Tuesday night.

IceForecast02112019 — The National Weather Service’s ice accumulation forecast as of 8:41 pm EST on February 11, 2019.

Plan on steady snow developing by mid-morning Tuesday, with the potential for snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour in the first couple hours of the storm. While the exact timing of the transition from snow to wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain, and snow) depends heavily on specific location, most areas – excluding Long Island, where the transition could occur more rapidly and sooner than elsewhere – will see this changeover around the early to mid-afternoon.

warrior-forecast-snow-event-11-12-18 — The Weather 360 snowfall forecast for Tuesday, February 11, 2019. Snow totals will vary greatly based on proximity to the coast.

4 dangerous — The Weather 360 roadway forecast for Tuesday, February 11, 2019. Please exercise extreme caution during the duration of this storm, with extra attention directed to built up ice and snow on certain roads.

Roadways will become dangerous by early afternoon due to periods of heavy precipitation and ice accretion. Please avoid unnecessary travel during the worst of the storm, with extreme caution on both treated and untreated roadways due to ice, snow, and reduced visibility. Most locations should see conditions rapidly improve Wednesday as temperatures are expected to go above freezing.

Crippling Blizzard Expected Tuesday

March 12, 2017March 12, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 2 feet+, Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, Heavy Snow, Major Blizzard, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, nyc, NYC Metro Area, Power Outages, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches remain in effect for locations across the NYC area. Weather 360 is now forecasting that up to 2′ of snow is possible in locations situated mainly to the west and the north of the city, and that at least 6″ of snow will accumulate even in the event the storm does not make a “direct” hit.

Snow Accumulation 12 — Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Totals Forecasts update about every 6 hours ahead of storms. Currently, Weather 360 is calling for at least 6″, and at most up to 2′.

It is increasingly likely that blizzard conditions will be felt on Tuesday, as heavy wet snow combined with wind gusts approaching 45+ mph may make for white out conditions. Due to the wind and snow, expect power to go out in some areas and take appropriate precautions ahead of the storm. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We’ll continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here, and on our Facebook page.

Major Winter Storm Prompts Alerts in NYC Area

March 11, 2017January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, ECMWF, GFS, Major Snowstorm, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are in effect for the entire NYC area. The National Weather Service is currently calling for up to 18″ of snow in some locations, as more major computer models have continued to suggest a strong Nor’easter developing off the East Coast by Tuesday morning.

GFS ECMWF 3 11 17 3 15 17 BLIZZARD — The GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) computer models from this morning. In the most recent runs, both models have suggested an essentially identical storm that will come in close proximity to the Mid Atlantic/New England coast, putting it in an ideal position to dump massive amounts of precipitation on the area.

Weather 360 is estimating that maximum snow totals in the area may exceed 18″ should the storm remain close enough to the coast to bring its moisture inland, but far enough away to keep temperatures below the freezing line. Even in the event that the storm does not remain in the Nor’easter ‘Goldilocks Zone’, expect there to be at least 3-6″ of snow on the ground by Wednesday morning. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We will continue to post updates on the progress of this storm over the coming days both here, and on our Facebook page.

Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings Issued

January 22, 2016January 22, 2016Posted in Climate Change, WinterTagged Blizzard, Blizzard Warning, Blizzard-Like Conditions, Coastal Flooding Threat, Emergency Situation, High Winds, Mid Atlantic, New England, New York City Metro Area, Northeast, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Weather Advisory, wintry weatherLeave a comment

A major winter storm is expected to impact the entire New York City Metro Area tonight into Sunday Morning.

Southern Connecticut Overview: Currently, Southern Fairfield and Southern New Haven Counties are under Winter Storm Warnings. Locations in southern portions of Northern Fairfield County can expect near-blizzard conditions, but due to less of a threat further north in the county, the National Weather Service has decided to keep the alert level at an advisory (likewise for Northern New Haven County). Expect wind gusts around 40 MPH with snow totals 6-15 inches.

Southeastern New York Overview: Blizzard conditions for the Greater New York City area along with Long Island. Winter Storm Warnings for locations just to the north (Westchester County), and continued Winter Storm Watches for locations just to the north of there. Expect wind gusts potentially reaching 50 MPH with snow totals ranging from 6 to 18 inches.

Northern New Jersey Overview: Winter Storm Warnings issued for Northwestern portions of this area. Blizzard Warnings closer to the coast. Expect snow totals ranging from 6 to 24 inches with wind gusts potentially reaching 60 MPH.

For more detailed information, visit weather.gov

As of 1/22/2016 5:00 PM EST

First Snowfall in and around New York City!

October 18, 2015Posted in WinterTagged amount of snow, connecticut, First snow, New England, New Jersey, new york, Northeast, nyc, NYC Metro Area, Peekskill, Poughkeepsie, snow, snow event, snow falling, Unofficial Start of Winter, Winter, Winter 2015-2016, Winter Temperatures, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

The unofficial start winter was today across many locations north and west of NYC. Although no measurable snowfall was recorded, locations from in and around Poughkeepsie to as far south as Salem, Peekskill, and even some locations in western Connecticut, experienced flurries and light snow showers a good one to two months ahead of time.

Why the snow?

Although temperatures in and around the NYC Metro Area were generally higher than freezing at the time of the snow, the temperature in the atmosphere was a bit cooler than freezing, which allowed fast-falling snow to reach the ground before it melted in-air.

Due to the above freezing temperatures of the ground though, many of these snowflakes melted within 30 seconds of contact with the ground.

(The official start of Meteorological Winter is December 1st, and the start of the season Winter is generally considered December 21st.)

Winter 2015-2016 Snow Total Forecasts!

October 12, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged amount of snow, NYC Metro Area, snow, Snow Totals, Weather 360 Forecasts, Winter, Winter 2015-2016, Winter 2015-2016 Snow Total ForecastsLeave a comment

The following pertains to the New York City Metropolitan Area from Nov. 1 – April 1 2016

Winter 2015-2016 Snow Total Forecasts:

The following Weather360 forecast was made by a process in the making for nearly a year.

The New York City Metro Area is likely to receive about 20 more inches of snow than normal. This in part is due to the current El Nino bringing more precipitation to the area, along with current computer model trends that suggest average temperatures in this area will also likely be most prevalent. Other factors such as Global Emissions and average precipitation and temperature amounts have been taken into account.

For more specific locations expected snow total amounts, visit our Climate360 page.