Winter Weather – Weather 360

Multi-Day Winter Weather Event Kicks Off Meteorological Winter

December 1, 2019December 1, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, Freezing Rain, Ice, Long Island, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Sleet, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.

THE FREEZING LINE

This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.

INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.

Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.

Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

October 29, 2019November 12, 2019Posted in Weather 360, WinterTagged Climate, National Weather Service, Nor'easter, Weather360, Winter, Winter 2019 - 2020, winter storm, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite — Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

Snow to Transition to Wintry Mix, Ice, and Rain Tuesday

February 11, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Ice, Power Outages, Road Hazards, Sleet, Slick Roads, snow, Spotty Power Outages, Widespread Power Outages, Winter, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories throughout the New York City Tri-State Area. Updated ice accumulation forecasts have indicated a much more significant level of ice accretion for locations to the north and west of the city, making for potentially dangerous roadway conditions Tuesday afternoon as well as setting up the possibility for isolated to potentially widespread power outages going into Tuesday night.

IceForecast02112019 — The National Weather Service’s ice accumulation forecast as of 8:41 pm EST on February 11, 2019.

Plan on steady snow developing by mid-morning Tuesday, with the potential for snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour in the first couple hours of the storm. While the exact timing of the transition from snow to wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain, and snow) depends heavily on specific location, most areas – excluding Long Island, where the transition could occur more rapidly and sooner than elsewhere – will see this changeover around the early to mid-afternoon.

warrior-forecast-snow-event-11-12-18 — The Weather 360 snowfall forecast for Tuesday, February 11, 2019. Snow totals will vary greatly based on proximity to the coast.

4 dangerous — The Weather 360 roadway forecast for Tuesday, February 11, 2019. Please exercise extreme caution during the duration of this storm, with extra attention directed to built up ice and snow on certain roads.

Roadways will become dangerous by early afternoon due to periods of heavy precipitation and ice accretion. Please avoid unnecessary travel during the worst of the storm, with extreme caution on both treated and untreated roadways due to ice, snow, and reduced visibility. Most locations should see conditions rapidly improve Wednesday as temperatures are expected to go above freezing.

Up to 8″ of Snow Possible Tomorrow; Major Storm Potential Next Week

March 9, 2017March 10, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 8" of snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, winter storm, Winter Weather, Winter Weather AdvisoryLeave a comment

Over half a foot of snow is possible tomorrow across large swaths of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Starting around midnight tonight, snow associated with an incoming weak low pressure system will move into the NYC area. Most of the snow should move out of the area by noon, but not before dumping an estimated 4-8 inches of snow.

HRRR computer model total snowfall accumulation by 4 pm ET 3/10/17.

Expect roads to be slick and potentially covered by a layer of snow and potentially some ice during the morning commute.

Going into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a potentially major Nor’easter may bring up to 2 feet of snow to New England and the Mid Atlantic. However, as this storm system is still not yet developed, it is difficult to forecast this with great accuracy, but recent trends have indicated that the potential for a major storm is increasing, and in the meantime, we’ll keep you informed.

Wintry Mess to Impact the Area Overnight

February 15, 2016February 15, 2016Posted in WinterTagged black ice, Ice, Mid Atlantic, New England, Northeast, NWS, NYC Metro Area, Road Hazards, Slush, snow, snow event, snow falling, Snow Storm, Snow Update, Winter Weather, Winter Weather AdvisoryLeave a comment

Locations across the NYC Metro Area are now under Winter Weather Advisories as snow and other wintry precipitation continues to envelop the area. Tonight, temperatures will continue to rise, and the wintry precipitation now will slowly transition to sleet and freezing rain, before tapering off as some rain showers across the area very early tomorrow morning. Currently, areas still receiving snow will likely have accumulated 1-3 inches of snow by now, making it somewhat difficult to get around. Ground temperatures are still below that of the air, meaning that areas receiving snow or other wintry precipitation will likely continue to see more accumulation. Tomorrow’s commute will be messy in the early morning until more rain moves in around 9 AM to wash some of the slush and snow on the roads away.

A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when the National Weather Service decides there will be hazardous weather in a certain area that will include some sort of wintry precipitation.

Most Winter Weather Advisories across the area are set to expire tomorrow around 7 AM.

First Snowfall in and around New York City!

October 18, 2015Posted in WinterTagged amount of snow, connecticut, First snow, New England, New Jersey, new york, Northeast, nyc, NYC Metro Area, Peekskill, Poughkeepsie, snow, snow event, snow falling, Unofficial Start of Winter, Winter, Winter 2015-2016, Winter Temperatures, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

The unofficial start winter was today across many locations north and west of NYC. Although no measurable snowfall was recorded, locations from in and around Poughkeepsie to as far south as Salem, Peekskill, and even some locations in western Connecticut, experienced flurries and light snow showers a good one to two months ahead of time.

Why the snow?

Although temperatures in and around the NYC Metro Area were generally higher than freezing at the time of the snow, the temperature in the atmosphere was a bit cooler than freezing, which allowed fast-falling snow to reach the ground before it melted in-air.

Due to the above freezing temperatures of the ground though, many of these snowflakes melted within 30 seconds of contact with the ground.

(The official start of Meteorological Winter is December 1st, and the start of the season Winter is generally considered December 21st.)