A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.
This is the first Weather 360 forecast made with the aid of a new forecasting algorithm tailored to the NYC Metro Area. Updated as of 8 pm ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018.
The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.
The potential for heavy snow to develop quickly Thursday afternoon over the NYC Metro Area.
As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.
This morning, locations across Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey woke up to snow showers and freezing rain; the first of the season. Although hovering just above freezing for most of the morning in portions of the Metro Area, snow was still able to reach the ground before melting. In locations further to the north, up to an inch and a half of snow has been reported on the ground, with snow expected to continue in some locations until the early evening hours before fully transitioning to rain.
The unofficial start winter was today across many locations north and west of NYC. Although no measurable snowfall was recorded, locations from in and around Poughkeepsie to as far south as Salem, Peekskill, and even some locations in western Connecticut, experienced flurries and light snow showers a good one to two months ahead of time.
Why the snow?
Although temperatures in and around the NYC Metro Area were generally higher than freezing at the time of the snow, the temperature in the atmosphere was a bit cooler than freezing, which allowed fast-falling snow to reach the ground before it melted in-air.
Due to the above freezing temperatures of the ground though, many of these snowflakes melted within 30 seconds of contact with the ground.
(The official start of Meteorological Winter is December 1st, and the start of the season Winter is generally considered December 21st.)
Weather 360 