Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches remain in effect for locations across the NYC area. Weather 360 is now forecasting that up to 2′ of snow is possible in locations situated mainly to the west and the north of the city, and that at least 6″ of snow will accumulate even in the event the storm does not make a “direct” hit.
It is increasingly likely that blizzard conditions will be felt on Tuesday, as heavy wet snow combined with wind gusts approaching 45+ mph may make for white out conditions. Due to the wind and snow, expect power to go out in some areas and take appropriate precautions ahead of the storm. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We’ll continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here, and on our Facebook page.
Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon. With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two). In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area. Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.
An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed. It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development. It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200. Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service has issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the New York City Metro Area. This comes after a day of pouring rain that has saturated the ground. These storms will impact the area over the following several hours and may bring wind gusts of upwards of 60 mph along with lightning and some hail. Weather 360 advises to heed all warnings and to go inside if not already to avoid potential injury.
The unofficial start winter was today across many locations north and west of NYC. Although no measurable snowfall was recorded, locations from in and around Poughkeepsie to as far south as Salem, Peekskill, and even some locations in western Connecticut, experienced flurries and light snow showers a good one to two months ahead of time.
Why the snow?
Although temperatures in and around the NYC Metro Area were generally higher than freezing at the time of the snow, the temperature in the atmosphere was a bit cooler than freezing, which allowed fast-falling snow to reach the ground before it melted in-air.
Due to the above freezing temperatures of the ground though, many of these snowflakes melted within 30 seconds of contact with the ground.
(The official start of Meteorological Winter is December 1st, and the start of the season Winter is generally considered December 21st.)
ALERT: OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS, A VERY INTENSE AND SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NYC AREA, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES.
An enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes does exist today now for the NYC Metro Area, this means there is an elevated likelihood, or enhanced likelihood of 1-2 inch in diameter hail, frequent lightning, and a few potential tornadoes. The enhanced risk set out by the SPC (spc.noaa.gov), also advises that due to an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, that everyone keeps an eye to the sky and to any watches or warnings that are set out by the NWS/NOAA. Here at Weather 360 we advise this as well, but also that you do NOT ignore watches or warnings and common sense, such as “going indoors as thunder roars”, or to take over immediately if there is a potential threat to life due to a weather event.
Please stay tuned to Weather 360, but remember to keep an eye to the sky and to check the NWS periodically for any new watches or warnings that may regard you personally.
CAUTION: TOMORROW MORNING INTO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA.
Over the next day, rain coming from the Midwest will start to move to the east towards the Northeast. The rain event that will be moving into the Northeast will be accompanied by some severe thunderstorms that may bring some small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rains. Along with this, temperatures will cool slightly to a more comfortable temperature outdoors come the next few days as even more rain moves through later this week. Mainly tomorrow though Weather 360 advises keeping an eye to the sky and be aware of any severe thunderstorm alerts set out for your specific area by the NWS.
As Bill swirls around over Oklahoma, it is starting to drift more and more eastward. Bill is still considered a huge threat to millions as several inches of rain could induce more flooding across areas from Oklahoma to Rhode Island as it crosses the country, especially in areas that have undergone severe flooding just several weeks ago. Be on the lookout for some thunderstorms in the Northeast and try to plan around potentially heavy rains on Sunday throughout the Northeast. Also, although slim, there is a potential for some severe storms to pop up in the NYC area on Sunday, so please heed all warnings set forth by the NWS.
Thank you and we hope you come again to Weather 360!
Today in and around New York City, temperatures will be around 70 degrees with some rain, but next week, especially around midweek, a very intense heat wave is expected to arrive.
This heat wave will not only bring heat indexes in NYC to rise above 90, but across the East Coast temperatures will be above normal for this time of year with a very high humidity. Temperatures in places such as D.C. could reach 90, and the heat indexes could soar into the triple digits. Although this heat wave will strike next week, it is not expected to last very long, by the end of the week and the weekend, some rain will arrive in the NYC area to cool things off by several degrees.
Tonight, as more rain moves into our area, the set up for rain tomorrow is becoming increasingly likely.
Tomorrow, not only will heavy rains soak the NYC area, again, but there is the possibility for some severe thunderstorms as well. Some of these thunderstorms may contain especially heavy rains and gusty winds, along with the possibility for some more small hail. The rains will last the majority of the day tonight and will likely impact both the morning and afternoon rush hours.
The severe thunderstorms that rolled across the Northeast yesterday came into the vicinity of NYC in the afternoon hours, bringing down temperatures by as much as 25 degrees, and creating some localized river and stream flooding.
Yesterday’s severe storms that impacted southern parts of Connecticut New York brought with it hail the size of quarters and frequent cloud to ground lightning, not to mention the torrential rains again.
For the NYC Metro Area in general, the probability of there being severe thunderstorms will greatly increase over the next few months. So yesterday may have been the beginning of the next round of thunderstorms that will span across the coming months.
For more information on coming severe thunderstorms, consult the National Weather Service (NWS).