Snow has been falling for several hours in what may turn out to be 2019’s first significant nor’easter. Upwards of half a foot of snow is now expected throughout the entire New York City Metropolitan Area. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.
Over the past 24 hours, several computer models, such as the NAM3km and HDRPS (both detailed and accurate computer models) have zeroed in on this storm lasting from Sunday afternoon through Monday around 6 or 7 am ET. Both computer models have pointed to snow totals averaging about 5 to 9 inches in Manhattan, Long Island, New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.
While snow has been falling for some time now, roadways are only now beginning to become covered and particularly hazardous in some places. Other than up to several inches of snow on roadways by tomorrow morning, it is possible that because of warmer temperatures earlier Sunday, there may be small layers of ice beneath the snow. Although temperatures will warm to above freezing on Monday, rapid refreezing Monday afternoon may create black ice on roadways.
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories throughout the New York City Tri-State Area. Updated ice accumulation forecasts have indicated a much more significant level of ice accretion for locations to the north and west of the city, making for potentially dangerous roadway conditions Tuesday afternoon as well as setting up the possibility for isolated to potentially widespread power outages going into Tuesday night.
Plan on steady snow developing by mid-morning Tuesday, with the potential for snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour in the first couple hours of the storm. While the exact timing of the transition from snow to wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain, and snow) depends heavily on specific location, most areas – excluding Long Island, where the transition could occur more rapidly and sooner than elsewhere – will see this changeover around the early to mid-afternoon.
Roadways will become dangerous by early afternoon due to periods of heavy precipitation and ice accretion. Please avoid unnecessary travel during the worst of the storm, with extreme caution on both treated and untreated roadways due to ice, snow, and reduced visibility. Most locations should see conditions rapidly improve Wednesday as temperatures are expected to go above freezing.
2019’s first major winter weather event has now triggered Winter Storm Warnings throughout the NYC Metropolitan Area. Recent runs of short range computer models have indicated larger-than-expected snow accumulations north and west of the city, with some places potentially receiving upwards of 12 inches of snow along with up to a quarter of an inch of ice.
While more areas may see more snow than ice or rain, the potential still exists for upwards of a quarter of an inch of ice to accumulate by early Sunday morning. The threat of ice, along with heavy snow and wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph, may lead to downed trees and tree limbs as well as power outages come Sunday afternoon. Coupled with sub-zero temperatures Sunday night, the storm has become potentially serious, especially for those who do experience lapses in electricity.
Along with the threat for downed trees and power lines also comes the threat for dangerous road conditions. Roadways will begin deteriorating late Saturday afternoon and, due to the rapid refreezing of any liquid on the ground going into Sunday night, will remain potentially hazardous at least through Monday morning.
More updates will be posted as needed both here and on our Facebook page. Stay safe!
A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.
The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.
As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.
While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.
Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.
A strong Nor’easter is expected to develop from a center of low pressure that will move from the Midwest over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy precipitation will likely create power outages and hazardous travel on Friday.
While it is certain that a Nor’easter will strengthen rapidly over the Mid Atlantic coast, the type of precipitation received in the NYC Metropolitan Area will depend on its proximity to the coast. As of this afternoon, the ECMWF (European) and the NAM (North American) computer models are forecasting enough cold air to transition the heavy precipitation into snow by 10 am or noon Friday. Snow totals in locations where the precipitation does change over to snow could see snow totals exceeding half a foot to over a foot of snow by Saturday morning.
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are currently in effect for locations along the I-95 Corridor. While snow accumulations through Sunday morning will likely range from 3” to 6” across much of the NYC Metro Area, the possibility for greater snow totals does exist should the storm system shift to the west, as does the possibility for lower totals in the event that the storm shifts to the east.
As the center of low pressure continues to develop, snow has begun to fall across portions of southern New Jersey and is expected to impact our area starting sometime in the mid-morning Saturday. While snow totals will likely remain below the 10” mark, expect moderate snow from around noon to 8 pm Saturday with the potential for some bands of heavier snow around the mid-afternoon. Most roadways will begin to see light accumulations of snow within one to two hours of the first flakes, meaning that all roadways will become slippery by the afternoon and evening.
Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches remain in effect for locations across the NYC area. Weather 360 is now forecasting that up to 2′ of snow is possible in locations situated mainly to the west and the north of the city, and that at least 6″ of snow will accumulate even in the event the storm does not make a “direct” hit.
It is increasingly likely that blizzard conditions will be felt on Tuesday, as heavy wet snow combined with wind gusts approaching 45+ mph may make for white out conditions. Due to the wind and snow, expect power to go out in some areas and take appropriate precautions ahead of the storm. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We’ll continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here, and on our Facebook page.
Over the past several days, more and more computer models have suggested that a ‘clipper’ snow storm would intensify just off the coast, dumping upwards of several inches of snow. Due to temperatures well-above average tomorrow, expect a small layer of ice on surfaces under all the snow Thursday, as some precipitation early on will fall as snow, melt, then freeze before it can accumulate.
Weather 360 is forecasting that a maximum of 12-18 inches of snow at this time in central portions of the Metro Area, with at least 3-6 inches of snow in locations further to the north, or at the freezing line at the immediate coast. The forecasted track and intensity of this storm are still fluctuating, so more information will be posted over the coming days. As always, please consult the NWS at weather.gov before making any decisions.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NEW YORK HAS ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND, PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND FOR THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY AREA. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY.
For locations not in Blizzard Warnings, very near-blizzard conditions can be expected, with visibility less than 1/2 mile at times. Power also has the potential to go out, as high wind gusts and heavy, wet snow can be expected for about 20 hours.