Nor’easter – Weather 360

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

October 29, 2019November 12, 2019Posted in Weather 360, WinterTagged Climate, National Weather Service, Nor'easter, Weather360, Winter, Winter 2019 - 2020, winter storm, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite — Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

First Accumulating Snow of Season Expected Thursday

November 13, 2018November 14, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, First snow, Heavy Snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Nor'easter, snow, snow event, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.

This is the first Weather 360 forecast made with the aid of a new forecasting algorithm tailored to the NYC Metro Area. Updated as of 8 pm ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.

The potential for heavy snow to develop quickly Thursday afternoon over the NYC Metro Area.

As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.

Largest Winter Storm of Season Takes Aim at NYC Tri-State

March 7, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged >12" snow, Blizzard, Blizzard-Like Conditions, connecticut, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Low Pressure, Major Snowstorm, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Nor'easter, Northeast, NYC Metro Area, Power Outages, snow, Winter Storm WarningLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

Snow Accumulation 18-3 — Weather 360 NYC Tri-State 72 Hour Snowfall Forecast as of 9:30 AM today.

While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.

Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.

Strong Nor’easter to Develop Friday

February 28, 2018February 28, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Damaging Winds, Dangerous conditions, heavy rain, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Low Pressure, Major Storm, Nor'easter, snow, Snow Storm, Strong StormsLeave a comment

A strong Nor’easter is expected to develop from a center of low pressure that will move from the Midwest over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy precipitation will likely create power outages and hazardous travel on Friday.

NAM Radar Friday March 2 2018 Noon — NAM 3km computer model display of potential weather conditions at noon on Friday. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

While it is certain that a Nor’easter will strengthen rapidly over the Mid Atlantic coast, the type of precipitation received in the NYC Metropolitan Area will depend on its proximity to the coast. As of this afternoon, the ECMWF (European) and the NAM (North American) computer models are forecasting enough cold air to transition the heavy precipitation into snow by 10 am or noon Friday. Snow totals in locations where the precipitation does change over to snow could see snow totals exceeding half a foot to over a foot of snow by Saturday morning.

Snow Accumulation 18-2 — Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Total Forecast Graphic as of 4:00 PM ET 2/28/2018.

Potential for Significant Nor’easter Soon

December 31, 2017Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Low Pressure, Nor'easter, Northeast, snow, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A low pressure system is forecasted to develop off the coast of Florida this Tuesday, at which point it has the possibility to come close enough to the coast to impact the Northeast by Thursday.

ECMWF Forecast 12 31 17 — European Computer Model (ECMWF) run for Thursday, January 4, 2018, depicting a strong low pressure developing several hundred miles off the US East Coast. (Image courtesy of Weather.us)

As low temperatures correlate to higher yields of snow from the same amount of liquid precipitation, should the storm system track any closer to the coast, upwards of half a foot to a foot of snow or more could be possible. At this time it is still unknown as to whether or not the storm will come close enough to impact the NYC area, but the potential exists for a significant winter storm or blizzard come later this week.

Major Winter Storm Prompts Alerts in NYC Area

March 11, 2017January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, ECMWF, GFS, Major Snowstorm, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are in effect for the entire NYC area. The National Weather Service is currently calling for up to 18″ of snow in some locations, as more major computer models have continued to suggest a strong Nor’easter developing off the East Coast by Tuesday morning.

GFS ECMWF 3 11 17 3 15 17 BLIZZARD — The GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) computer models from this morning. In the most recent runs, both models have suggested an essentially identical storm that will come in close proximity to the Mid Atlantic/New England coast, putting it in an ideal position to dump massive amounts of precipitation on the area.

Weather 360 is estimating that maximum snow totals in the area may exceed 18″ should the storm remain close enough to the coast to bring its moisture inland, but far enough away to keep temperatures below the freezing line. Even in the event that the storm does not remain in the Nor’easter ‘Goldilocks Zone’, expect there to be at least 3-6″ of snow on the ground by Wednesday morning. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We will continue to post updates on the progress of this storm over the coming days both here, and on our Facebook page.

Up to 8″ of Snow Possible Tomorrow; Major Storm Potential Next Week

March 9, 2017March 10, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 8" of snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, winter storm, Winter Weather, Winter Weather AdvisoryLeave a comment

Over half a foot of snow is possible tomorrow across large swaths of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Starting around midnight tonight, snow associated with an incoming weak low pressure system will move into the NYC area. Most of the snow should move out of the area by noon, but not before dumping an estimated 4-8 inches of snow.

HRRR computer model total snowfall accumulation by 4 pm ET 3/10/17.

Expect roads to be slick and potentially covered by a layer of snow and potentially some ice during the morning commute.

Going into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a potentially major Nor’easter may bring up to 2 feet of snow to New England and the Mid Atlantic. However, as this storm system is still not yet developed, it is difficult to forecast this with great accuracy, but recent trends have indicated that the potential for a major storm is increasing, and in the meantime, we’ll keep you informed.

NYC Weather: Winter’s Last Gasp?

March 20, 2016March 20, 2016Posted in Major Storm, spring, Weekly Forecast, WinterTagged Late-Season Snow, New England, New York City Metro Area, Nor'easter, Northeast, snow, snow event, snow falling, Snow Storm, Snow Totals, Snow Update, spring, This Week's Weather, Warmer Temperatures, Weather Outlook, Winter 2015-2016, Winter's Last Gasp?Leave a comment

This is the Second Edition of the NYC Area Week Outlook by Weather360

Monday: Snow lingering in the morning will lead to sunnier and drier conditions in the afternoon with highs in the 40’s. Total snow accumulations of up to several inches are possible in some (mainly eastern) portions of the area.

Tuesday: Highs nearing 50 will be accompanied by much clearer conditions, making it seem much more like Late-March than Monday did.

Wednesday: Temperatures will finally break 60 degrees n most spots, so say ‘sayonara’ to any remaining snow mounds.

Thursday: Highs again in the 60’s will make it feel even more like spring, but the threat for showers does increase as the week progresses.

Friday: Highs again in the 60’s will also bring along some light to moderate rain showers. Only problem though is that its not April yet, so I guess these showers wont bring any May flowers…

The Weekend: Temperatures in the 50’s along with somewhat clear conditions are likely to remain the most significant weather factor over the weekend. Although, there is the potential for a Nor’easter to impact the area around Sunday, so it may not be to bad to have some rain gear nearby.

In the event of an emergency weather situation, please consult the NWS at weather.gov and/or your local Emergency Management Office.

NYC Weather: Rain, Milder Temperatures, and Snow This Week?

March 13, 2016March 14, 2016Posted in Weekly ForecastTagged current weather conditions, Milder Temperatures, New England, New York City Metro Area, New York City Weather Forecast, Nor'easter, Northeast, rain, snow, spring, Weather, Weather360, Week Forecast, Weekend Forecast, wintry weatherLeave a comment

This is the First Edition of the NYC Area Week Outlook by Weather360

Monday: Rain moving across the area will be accompanied by cooler temperatures hovering in and around the 40’s.

Tuesday: Rain will taper off towards the late morning leading to cloudy conditions with highs maybe reaching the 50’s.

Wednesday: Some showers with temperatures around the 60 degree mark will create a more spring-like feel again.

Thursday: Some light rain showers will bring slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 50’s.

Friday: Clear skies are expected along with temperatures still in the mid 50’s.

Weekend: Saturday will be much like Friday, but the potential for a significant Nor’easter exists starting Sunday, lasting into early next week. This year, Punxsutawney Phil may actually end up being wrong, as cooler temperatures may create some wintry precipitation across the area, but nothing is set in stone quite yet.

In the event of an emergency weather situation, please consult the NWS at weather.gov and/or your local Emergency Management Office.

Hurricane Alex Forms in Atlantic, Earliest Since 1938

January 14, 2016January 14, 2016Posted in Major Storm, Tropical Cyclones, WinterTagged Azores Islands, CMC, ECMWF, GFS, Hurricane Alex, Hurricane Season 2016, Nor'easter, Northeast US, snow event, Snow UpdateLeave a comment

Hurricane Alex formed in the Northeastern Atlantic today, and is set to impact the Azores Islands overnight into tomorrow. Hurricane Alex has sustained winds of 85 MPH and is churning due north at 22 MPH. After impacting the Azores, Alex will become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves to the northwest rapidly. Alex will end up, most likely as a post-tropical storm or remnant low, near the Northeastern Canadian Maritime or around southern portions of the Greenland Maritime.

US Snow Update: Across the Northeast, more nor’easters can be expected, especially in early to late February, when cold air may mix in to create significant snow events. In other locations across the United States, more of the same is to be expected in the short term, but there is the potential for a small snow event in and around southern Oklahoma/ northern Texas over the weekend, according to the GFS, the CMC, and the ECMWF computer models.