Tropical Depression 8 as well as Tropical Depression 9 are now expected to impact The US as Tropical Storms. Tropical Depression 8 is currently nearing The Outer Banks and is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm soon, prompting Tropical Storm Warnings for nearly the entire Outer Banks. Tropical Depression 9 has finished moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as of this morning, and is expected to become a Tropical Storm over the next 48 hours as it begins its northeast turn towards Florida. After impacting portions of northwestern Florida, the storm is expected to reemerge over The Atlantic and continue to head to the northeast. Recently, some computer models such as The JMA (Based in Japan), The CMC (Based in Canada, as well as The UKMET (Based in The UK), have suggested a turn to the north and northwest, towards the coast of The Mid-Atlantic. There is no cause for concern quite yet for those in and around NYC, but Weather 360 will continue to monitor the situation.
Hurricane Alex formed in the Northeastern Atlantic today, and is set to impact the Azores Islands overnight into tomorrow. Hurricane Alex has sustained winds of 85 MPH and is churning due north at 22 MPH. After impacting the Azores, Alex will become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves to the northwest rapidly. Alex will end up, most likely as a post-tropical storm or remnant low, near the Northeastern Canadian Maritime or around southern portions of the Greenland Maritime.
US Snow Update: Across the Northeast, more nor’easters can be expected, especially in early to late February, when cold air may mix in to create significant snow events. In other locations across the United States, more of the same is to be expected in the short term, but there is the potential for a small snow event in and around southern Oklahoma/ northern Texas over the weekend, according to the GFS, the CMC, and the ECMWF computer models.
Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.
ECMWF VS GFS:
The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.
At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.