As of October 1 2015 12:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (EDT)
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft flying at low altitudes has recovered wind speeds upwards of 115 Knots (About 130 MPH), and the storm now has a Mean Sea-level Pressure (MSLP) of 939 millibars. Joaquin is still moving southwest into The Bahamas, but is expected to reach the Jet Stream shortly and begin its turn to the north. At this moment, one on a satellite image may view this change in direction, as it has just begun. As this has just begun, the storm is still moving to the west, so the storm will likely stay on the slightly westward side of the current NHC Track Cone issued at the 11 AM 15 Advisory Update. At the moment many of the computer models seem to be incorrect in saying it would temporarily stall out in The Bahamas and sling-shotting to the northeast, for the storm has started to move slightly to the northwest.
Locations across the East Coast that need to be on alert are: North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maine.
More updates soon here on Weather360.
For emergency information, consult the NHC at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Overnight: Hurricane Warnings and Watches has been issued for The Bahamas, as Tropical Storm Joaquin is expected to strengthen to a hurricane shortly and impact The Bahamas over the next two to three days. The NHC track has also shifted to the west, with a track that has Hurricane Joaquin impacting The East Coast anywhere from New Jersey to Rhode Island this coming Monday or Tuesday.
Everyone from Virginia to Rhode Island should continue to monitor this storm and be prepared for every scenario for your area. Now is the time to make sure you have what you need in the event a hurricane impacts you.
The current most popular trend with some of the more major, long range computer models, all try to bring this storm into locations just south of Delaware, but other major computer models such as the ECMWF and the TVCN (The most popular among the NHC) suggest a more easterly track, which will likely shift the current general trend back up to the north and east once more, but yet again, we can not predict this with 100% accuracy, for this storm has been rapidly strengthening so much, every single computer model seems to shift in every which direction every model run…
We’ll continue to monitor the storm for you – Weather360 9/30/15
Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.
ECMWF VS GFS:
The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.
At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.
Over the past two days, Weather 360 has been monitoring the development of newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven (soon to be Tropical Storm Joaquin.) Over the past 24 hours though, somewhat ludicrous information has been streaming out from many of the well regarded computer models. This information includes that of a named Tropical Storm or potentially Hurricane, impacting the New England Coastline later this week and into the weekend.
Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving west at 5 MPH, and is expected to make a sharp northerly turn over the next 48 hours towards the East Coast. The current pressure is already 1003 Millibars, well ahead of the expected pressure and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with surface gusts reaching upwards of 40 MPH. The storm is located north and east of The Bahamas and may threaten the following locations with Tropical Storm force or above winds: Bermuda, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and potentially New Hampshire, and Maine.
The Computer Models:
At the moment, many of the different computer models are suggesting pretty much what the NHC track as of 5:00 PM EDT/AST suggests, a sharp turn to the north and potentially a re-curve to the west straight into locations such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.
Please consult the National Hurricane Center and your emergency management office over the next few days as this becomes more and more certain to make your plan.