GFDL – Weather 360

As Atlantic Hurricane Season Winds Down, Western Mexico Faces Major Hurricane Threat

October 22, 2015Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged Category 4 Hurricane, computer models, Delaware, eastern pacific hurricane season, flooding, GFDL, Hurricane, Hurricane Patricia, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, Hurricane Warnings, HWRF, Mexico, Mexico Hurricane Impact, nhc, Oklahoma, rain, Texas, Texas CoastlineLeave a comment

10/22/15 8:00 PM AST: Hurricane Patricia strengthens rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane, Hurricane Warnings in place.

Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season is winding down, a massive Category 4 Hurricane Patricia is quickly moving towards the Central Mexican Pacific coastline. This monster storm will also help bring massive amounts of rainfall to these areas along with parts of the Southern United States over the next several days.

The Forecast

At this time yesterday, Hurricane Patricia was only a Tropical Depression with sustained winds of only 35 MPH, and the forecast track was only suggesting the landfall at a maximum of a Category Two storm on the Mexican Coastline. So what happened?

Well, since yesterday at this time, the forecast models have shifted as to support massive quick development of the storm due to warm ocean waters, and minimal wind shear. Even though the official forecast track yesterday called for a moderate hurricane impact on the Mexican Coastline, some computer models such as the HWRF and the GFDL (Hurricane Computer Models) suggested that at least a potential Category Three storm impact was possible starting late on Tuesday. These same computer models have steadily suggested a more violent impact since then.

For anyone with interests across along the Central-Pacific Mexican Coastline, please continue to monitor the storm and visit the NHC’s website for more information.

Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Strengthen and May Impact East Coast

September 29, 2015Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged 10-20 inches of rain, 3.A.S., Atlantic cyclone, Atlantic Hurricane Season, CMC, connecticut, Delaware, East Coast Hurricane Threat, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, Hurricane Joaquin, HWRF, Joaquin, Landfall Index, Level II Alert, Level III Alert, Maryland, Massachusetts, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Northeast, Rhode Island, Tropical Storm Joaquin, VirginiaLeave a comment

Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.

ECMWF VS GFS:

The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.

At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.

Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Impact Northeast This Weekend

September 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged 3.A.S., Atlantic Hurricane Season, connecticut, GFDL, Hurricane Preparedness, HWRF, Level II Enhanced Alert, Massachussetts, New England Coastline, New Jersey, new york, Northeast, Rhode Island, Tropical Depression Eleven, Tropical Storm JoaquinLeave a comment

Over the past two days, Weather 360 has been monitoring the development of newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven (soon to be Tropical Storm Joaquin.) Over the past 24 hours though, somewhat ludicrous information has been streaming out from many of the well regarded computer models. This information includes that of a named Tropical Storm or potentially Hurricane, impacting the New England Coastline later this week and into the weekend.

The Stats:

Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving west at 5 MPH, and is expected to make a sharp northerly turn over the next 48 hours towards the East Coast. The current pressure is already 1003 Millibars, well ahead of the expected pressure and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with surface gusts reaching upwards of 40 MPH. The storm is located north and east of The Bahamas and may threaten the following locations with Tropical Storm force or above winds: Bermuda, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and potentially New Hampshire, and Maine.

The Computer Models:

At the moment, many of the different computer models are suggesting pretty much what the NHC track as of 5:00 PM EDT/AST suggests, a sharp turn to the north and potentially a re-curve to the west straight into locations such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.

Please consult the National Hurricane Center and your emergency management office over the next few days as this becomes more and more certain to make your plan.

Tonight crucial in any future development of Tropical Storm Erika

August 28, 2015August 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged 3.A.S., Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands, Cuba, Dominican Republic, ECMWF, Erika, Euro, Florida, GFDL, GFS, Haiti, Hispaniola, Hurricane, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, HWRF, Leeward Islands, nhc, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, Tropical Cyclone, tropical depression, Tropical Storm Erika, Tropical Storm Warnings, Tropical Storm Watches, Virgin Islands, Weather, Weather 360, weather forecast, Weather NewsLeave a comment

As of 5:30 PM EDT/AST

With the newest NHC track and intensity update of Tropical Storm Erika rolling out, it is time to really stop and think, what is the single most important factor in Erika’s development, what is most crucial in the short term? The answer is for the most part clear, and cloudy, but it is Hispaniola at the moment…

Hispaniola and the Storm Shredder’s

Sounds like a band, right? Anyways, the mountains spread across central and southern portions of the two-nation island do inhibit development of tropical cyclones by ripping to shreds their center of circulation in the lower levels. The mountains of Hispaniola are anywhere between 6,000 and 10,000 feet, tall enough to disrupt the centers and other clouds at the lower levels. So really it all comes down to the mountains over the next 12 to 18 hours, and if Erika is strong enough to at the least reemerge after its encounter with the land masses.

Official Alerts:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the entire length of the coasts of The Dominican Republic and Haiti, along with The Turks and Caicos along with most of The Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern parts of Cuba and for locations in the northwestern portions of The Bahamas.

Weather 360 will continue to monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.

Tropical Storm Erika may impact Southeast Coast, but will it make it there?

August 28, 2015August 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, computer models, Cuba, east coast, ECMWF, Euro, Florida, GFDL, GFS, Hispaniola, Hurricane, Hurricane Hunters, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Moutains, NAM, nhc, Puerto Rico, SFWMD, Southeastern United States, The Bahamas, The Turks and Caicos, The Virgin Islands, Tropical Storm Erika, Weather 360Leave a comment

As of 11:30 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika has sustained winds of about 50 MPH with gusts upwards of 60 MPH. The storm is moving west-northwestward at the moment over the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, parts of The Turks and Caicos along with The Bahamas, and all of Hispaniola. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft are in the storm.

The Track

This image is made public by the South Florida Water Management District (.gov)

The track seems to be locking in and narrowing down, well, at least compared to yesterday at this time, but nonetheless, the expected track and intensity are still at a state of ‘low confidence’ as mentioned by the NHC in their latest Tropical Forecast Discussion. The general trend though, is that the storm will pass over Hispaniola over the next day, then turn northward toward Florida, then possibly re curving, to go back over the Atlantic and to head up the East Coast. For those in Florida or along the Southeast Coast of the United States, please continue to monitor the situation, as the cone of uncertainty continues to include the possibility of a major storm impacting the Eastern Seaboard.

Intensity, Will She Survive?

Who knows, Erika is seeming to have a mind of her own as she has not followed the official NHC track whatsoever over the last several days. Although this is true, over the past hour or two Erika has seemed to finally get her act together (or the NHC for that matter) in determining the track, because Erika’s center of circulation along with her discombobulated thunderstorms have seemingly begun to shift to the northwest. Erika is expected to strengthen at least to a higher-grade Tropical Storm by the NHC, and by a very consistent computer model, the GFDL, a major Category Four storm off of the Southeast Coast. But what is the driving force behind its intensity? Mountains…

Believe it or not, the only difference in the computer models is if Erika will be torn up enough by the mountains for it not to reform to a well-defined system. According to the NHC, Erika will be so torn up by Hispaniola’s mountains, that it will not be able to strengthen too significantly before potential impact with Florida. This whereas the GFDL computer model along with some others, suggest a less torn-up version of Erika and strengthen her rapidly, causing her to not impact Florida for too long and move her up the US East Coast quickly as a large Major Hurricane (as of 6 UTC.)

Official Alerts:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, all of Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for parts of Cuba, and the northwest portions of The Bahamas.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Tropical Storm Warning areas are under a Level I Emergency, Locations under Tropical Storm Watches are under a Level II Alert, and a Level III, Be Aware, statement is for the Entire East Coast from Florida to Massachussetts.

Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Erika.

Tropical Storm Erika may pose threat to entire East Coast if models hold through

August 27, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, east coast, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, Hispaniola, Hurricane, Hurricane Season 2015, HWRF, Leeward Islands, Mid Atlantic, New England, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, The Bahamas, The Turks and Caicos, Tropical Storm Erika, Virgin IslandsLeave a comment

BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: 3:45 PM EDT/AST

It is now almost 4 o’clock across the Eastern Seaboard of the US and with the latest run of the computer model runs, some fairly intriguing information has come out as well.

What’s happening?

As of the 12 UTC update, several computer models that do bring Erika up the East Coast, also bring Erika to Category 4 and Category 5 status while nearing the Outer Banks. This could, if true, mean that a potential catastrophic disaster could be felt anywhere from Florida, to New England, with that in mind, we do remind you that some computer models do still bring a weaker system into Florida, which would avert a potential catastrophe. For anyone from Florida to New England, we do advise to at least be thinking about preparation for this potential storm.

For those in the Caribbean Islands, including Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and The Bahamas, we recommend immediate action, as we expect a slight shift in the track by the NHC over the next hour.

Bottom Line: BE PREPARED, Don’t let a storm catch you off guard.

We will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Erika.