Hurricane Preparedness

2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 12, 2019May 12, 2019Posted in spring, summer, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged 2019 Hurricane Season, atlantic, Atlantic Hurricane Season, Hurricane, Hurricane Preparedness, hurricane season, Tropical Cyclone, Tropical StormLeave a comment

Colorado State University has recently released its 2019 Hurricane Season Outlook and is calling for a slightly below average hurricane season. The Colorado State University outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season has long been one of the staples used in the long-term forecasting of how violent or active a particular hurricane season will be.

This year, the CSU forecast (as of April) is calling for an expected total of 13 named tropical cyclones (the average is 12), 5 hurricanes (the average is 6), and 2 major hurricanes (the average is 3). This forecast is based on various points of data, including recent measurements indicating that the Tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than average for this time of year. Check out the full report here.

CANSIPS shear estimate 2 — Above are computer model forecasts, made available by TropicalTidbits.com, for this coming hurricane season. This particular model, the CanSIPS, is forecasting increased areas of wind shear (generally less favorable for hurricane development) across the lower Caribbean from August to November. This by does **not** rule out the presence or development of hurricanes or other cyclones in the Caribbean Sea.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30, during which time, as with any year, there will most likely be several potentially life-threatening cyclones in the basin. Despite the slightly reduced risk for tropical cyclones, please remain vigilant throughout the late spring, summer, and fall for further developments.

If you live in an area prone to hurricanes or tropical storms, now is the best time to get prepared. Ensure you have a proper emergency supplies kit and other essentials by visiting https://www.ready.gov.

Stay safe!

Massive Hurricane Florence to Slam the Carolinas

September 12, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged Category 3, Category 4 Hurricane, Hurricane, Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Preparedness, Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Major Hurricane, NAM, North Carolina, South CarolinaLeave a comment

Hurricane Florence, now a major category 3 hurricane with winds in excess of 115 mph, is expected to restrengthen as it makes its way towards the coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to the northern Outer Banks in North Carolina, with Hurricane Watches extending as far south as Charleston.

Florence NHC Track 09 12 18.png — Official NHC track and wind field assessment as of 8:00 PM ET on September 12, 2018.

Although the effects of Hurricane Florence will begin to impact the Carolinas starting tomorrow afternoon, strong winds and heavy rain will continue to lash the region until the end of the weekend due to the storm’s unusual path.

Florence NAM 3KM Future Radar 09 12 18.png — This is the 18z 9/12/18 run of the NAM 3km computer model depicting an extremely intense Hurricane Florence approaching the Wilmington, NC area.

For the past several days, computer model guidance has shifted to suggesting that Hurricane Florence will begin to slow down and proceed to parallel the coastline come Friday evening. The storm’s unusual path will force extremely dangerous winds and storm surge across a swath of land extending from the Outer Banks to South Carolina, placing millions under the threat of life-threatening conditions. Unfortunately, these conditions will only be compounded and exacerbated by the upwards of 3 feet of rain forecasted to fall in some areas.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting winds to exceed 120 mph upon Hurricane Florence’s arrival near the coastline, with a storm surge exceeding 9-13 feet in some locations, making this storm extremely dangerous for those in its path.

If you have been ordered or asked to evacuate, please heed these orders immediately before it becomes too late to do so. All preparations for this storm should be completed immediately.

For more information, please consult the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or your local emergency management office.

Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Impact Northeast This Weekend

September 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged 3.A.S., Atlantic Hurricane Season, connecticut, GFDL, Hurricane Preparedness, HWRF, Level II Enhanced Alert, Massachussetts, New England Coastline, New Jersey, new york, Northeast, Rhode Island, Tropical Depression Eleven, Tropical Storm JoaquinLeave a comment

Over the past two days, Weather 360 has been monitoring the development of newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven (soon to be Tropical Storm Joaquin.) Over the past 24 hours though, somewhat ludicrous information has been streaming out from many of the well regarded computer models. This information includes that of a named Tropical Storm or potentially Hurricane, impacting the New England Coastline later this week and into the weekend.

The Stats:

Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving west at 5 MPH, and is expected to make a sharp northerly turn over the next 48 hours towards the East Coast. The current pressure is already 1003 Millibars, well ahead of the expected pressure and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with surface gusts reaching upwards of 40 MPH. The storm is located north and east of The Bahamas and may threaten the following locations with Tropical Storm force or above winds: Bermuda, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and potentially New Hampshire, and Maine.

The Computer Models:

At the moment, many of the different computer models are suggesting pretty much what the NHC track as of 5:00 PM EDT/AST suggests, a sharp turn to the north and potentially a re-curve to the west straight into locations such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.

Please consult the National Hurricane Center and your emergency management office over the next few days as this becomes more and more certain to make your plan.