2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

Colorado State University has recently released its 2019 Hurricane Season Outlook and is calling for a slightly below average hurricane season. The Colorado State University outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season has long been one of the staples used in the long-term forecasting of how violent or active a particular hurricane season will be.

This year, the CSU forecast (as of April) is calling for an expected total of 13 named tropical cyclones (the average is 12), 5 hurricanes (the average is 6), and 2 major hurricanes (the average is 3). This forecast is based on various points of data, including recent measurements indicating that the Tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than average for this time of year. Check out the full report here.

CANSIPS shear estimate

CANSIPS shear estimate 2
Above are computer model forecasts, made available by TropicalTidbits.com, for this coming hurricane season. This particular model, the CanSIPS, is forecasting increased areas of wind shear (generally less favorable for hurricane development) across the lower Caribbean from August to November. This by does not rule out the presence or development of hurricanes or other cyclones in the Caribbean Sea.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30, during which time, as with any year, there will most likely be several potentially life-threatening cyclones in the basin. Despite the slightly reduced risk for tropical cyclones, please remain vigilant throughout the late spring, summer, and fall for further developments.

If you live in an area prone to hurricanes or tropical storms, now is the best time to get prepared. Ensure you have a proper emergency supplies kit and other essentials by visiting https://www.ready.gov.

Stay safe!

 

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