Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.
ECMWF VS GFS:
The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.
At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.
Over the past two days, Weather 360 has been monitoring the development of newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven (soon to be Tropical Storm Joaquin.) Over the past 24 hours though, somewhat ludicrous information has been streaming out from many of the well regarded computer models. This information includes that of a named Tropical Storm or potentially Hurricane, impacting the New England Coastline later this week and into the weekend.
Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving west at 5 MPH, and is expected to make a sharp northerly turn over the next 48 hours towards the East Coast. The current pressure is already 1003 Millibars, well ahead of the expected pressure and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with surface gusts reaching upwards of 40 MPH. The storm is located north and east of The Bahamas and may threaten the following locations with Tropical Storm force or above winds: Bermuda, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and potentially New Hampshire, and Maine.
The Computer Models:
At the moment, many of the different computer models are suggesting pretty much what the NHC track as of 5:00 PM EDT/AST suggests, a sharp turn to the north and potentially a re-curve to the west straight into locations such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.
Please consult the National Hurricane Center and your emergency management office over the next few days as this becomes more and more certain to make your plan.
EMERGENCY STATEMENT FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE PTWC AT 2:00 PM HST
FOR THOSE WITH INTERESTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
224 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
TO - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH SUPPLEMENT
A TSUNAMI WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1254 PM HST 16 SEP 2015
COORDINATES - 31.5 SOUTH 72.0 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.3 MOMENT
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 2350Z 1.62M / 5.3FT 40MIN
CHANARAL CL 26.4S 70.6W 0010Z 0.67M / 2.2FT 34MIN
JUAN FERNANDEZ 33.6S 78.8W 0008Z 0.97M / 3.2FT 08MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 2339Z 3.11M / 10.2FT 20MIN
BUCALEMU CL 34.6S 72.0W 2334Z 0.46M / 1.5FT 24MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 2343Z 0.50M / 1.6FT 30MIN
SAN ANTONIO CL 33.6S 71.6W 2358Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 18MIN
DART 32402 26.7S 74.0W 2326Z 0.12M / 0.4FT 36MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0311 AM HST THU 17 SEP 2015
FURTHER MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT UNTIL THE THREAT TO HAWAII HAS PASSED.
As of 5:30 PM EDT/AST
With the newest NHC track and intensity update of Tropical Storm Erika rolling out, it is time to really stop and think, what is the single most important factor in Erika’s development, what is most crucial in the short term? The answer is for the most part clear, and cloudy, but it is Hispaniola at the moment…
Hispaniola and the Storm Shredder’s
Sounds like a band, right? Anyways, the mountains spread across central and southern portions of the two-nation island do inhibit development of tropical cyclones by ripping to shreds their center of circulation in the lower levels. The mountains of Hispaniola are anywhere between 6,000 and 10,000 feet, tall enough to disrupt the centers and other clouds at the lower levels. So really it all comes down to the mountains over the next 12 to 18 hours, and if Erika is strong enough to at the least reemerge after its encounter with the land masses.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the entire length of the coasts of The Dominican Republic and Haiti, along with The Turks and Caicos along with most of The Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern parts of Cuba and for locations in the northwestern portions of The Bahamas.
Weather 360 will continue to monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.
A LEVEL III ALERT MESSAGE BY WEATHER 360 WILL BE RELEASED TOMORROW MORNING AS A PART OF OUR NEW 3.A.S. SYSTEM
The next few days across the Tri-State Area will be for the most part, calm. With temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s and little to no clouds in the sky, the next few days will feel like true Summer, unlike the temperatures from several days ago that made everyone feel like it was May again. Although temperatures will be roughly the same during the start of next week, the potential for rain and thunderstorms will start to appear starting around early or midday Sunday. Therefore, over the next 24 hours, Weather 360 will initiate its first issue of the 3.A.S. (3-Leveled Alert System.) In this case, an Increasing Level III Alert will be issued as of tomorrow morning. This means not only to be alert and aware that potentially threatening weather may move into our area over the next 36 hours or so, but also means that the threat level will likely increase to either Level II, or potentially a Level I, Most Urgent Alert. If this alert was only a normal Level III Alert, then the threat level would likely not increase and one would only have to remain aware of the incoming weather conditions.