10/22/15 8:00 PM AST: Hurricane Patricia strengthens rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane, Hurricane Warnings in place.
Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season is winding down, a massive Category 4 Hurricane Patricia is quickly moving towards the Central Mexican Pacific coastline. This monster storm will also help bring massive amounts of rainfall to these areas along with parts of the Southern United States over the next several days.
At this time yesterday, Hurricane Patricia was only a Tropical Depression with sustained winds of only 35 MPH, and the forecast track was only suggesting the landfall at a maximum of a Category Two storm on the Mexican Coastline. So what happened?
Well, since yesterday at this time, the forecast models have shifted as to support massive quick development of the storm due to warm ocean waters, and minimal wind shear. Even though the official forecast track yesterday called for a moderate hurricane impact on the Mexican Coastline, some computer models such as the HWRF and the GFDL (Hurricane Computer Models) suggested that at least a potential Category Three storm impact was possible starting late on Tuesday. These same computer models have steadily suggested a more violent impact since then.
For anyone with interests across along the Central-Pacific Mexican Coastline, please continue to monitor the storm and visit the NHC’s website for more information.
As of October 1 2015 12:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (EDT)
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft flying at low altitudes has recovered wind speeds upwards of 115 Knots (About 130 MPH), and the storm now has a Mean Sea-level Pressure (MSLP) of 939 millibars. Joaquin is still moving southwest into The Bahamas, but is expected to reach the Jet Stream shortly and begin its turn to the north. At this moment, one on a satellite image may view this change in direction, as it has just begun. As this has just begun, the storm is still moving to the west, so the storm will likely stay on the slightly westward side of the current NHC Track Cone issued at the 11 AM 15 Advisory Update. At the moment many of the computer models seem to be incorrect in saying it would temporarily stall out in The Bahamas and sling-shotting to the northeast, for the storm has started to move slightly to the northwest.
Locations across the East Coast that need to be on alert are: North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maine.
More updates soon here on Weather360.
For emergency information, consult the NHC at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Overnight: Hurricane Warnings and Watches has been issued for The Bahamas, as Tropical Storm Joaquin is expected to strengthen to a hurricane shortly and impact The Bahamas over the next two to three days. The NHC track has also shifted to the west, with a track that has Hurricane Joaquin impacting The East Coast anywhere from New Jersey to Rhode Island this coming Monday or Tuesday.
Everyone from Virginia to Rhode Island should continue to monitor this storm and be prepared for every scenario for your area. Now is the time to make sure you have what you need in the event a hurricane impacts you.
The current most popular trend with some of the more major, long range computer models, all try to bring this storm into locations just south of Delaware, but other major computer models such as the ECMWF and the TVCN (The most popular among the NHC) suggest a more easterly track, which will likely shift the current general trend back up to the north and east once more, but yet again, we can not predict this with 100% accuracy, for this storm has been rapidly strengthening so much, every single computer model seems to shift in every which direction every model run…
We’ll continue to monitor the storm for you – Weather360 9/30/15
Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.
ECMWF VS GFS:
The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.
At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.
BREAKING NEWS: Multiple tornado warnings issued last night for places in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey
The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, while moving over Virginia still Tropical Depression Bill, brought in several lines of extremely dangerous and severe thunderstorms accompanied with rotation sufficient enough to produce tornadoes. These thunderstorms also dumped whatever was left of Bill’s moisture as well, in some places over 3 inches of rain fell in less than an hour. There were many flash flood, river flood, and flood warnings issued for areas from the Midwest to New Jersey last night as well, causing the need for some high water rescues by local fire departments and others. For anyone anywhere in the United States that may be impacted by a tornado (basically everywhere), remember that although it may be interesting to watch and videotape a tornado or any type of severe storm, whenever the warning goes out for you, take all precautions and heed every warning in order to stay safe.