Peak Activity: The Tropical Atlantic Heats Up

September 19, 2019 – Category 1 Hurricane Jerry is the latest addition to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook this evening. The 90 mph storm is moving to the west-northwest and threatens the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect, as well as Bermuda, which is still experiencing rough waters from the once Major Hurricane Humberto.

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Hurricane Jerry, a relatively small storm as of the evening of September 19, poses a threat for the northern Leeward Islands as well as Bermuda over the next seven days.

Further to the west, the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda continues to wreak havoc in Texas – where upwards of 40″ of rain have now fallen to the east of Houston. Large swaths of southeastern Texas, which were also slammed by the historic rainfall from Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are under Flash Flood and Flood Warnings.

The Rest of the Atlantic

  • Now Category 2 Hurricane Humberto continues to move to the north and east away from Bermuda with winds in excess of 105 mph.
  • Two areas with low probability of development over the next five days are moving into and through the Caribbean Sea.
  • A disturbance moving off the Africa has a 50% chance at developing into a Tropical Depression over the next five days. The most immediate effects of this potential storm could be felt in the Cape Verde islands.

For more information regarding the impacts of Imelda, please visit http://www.weather.gov. For more information regarding the progress of Hurricanes Jerry and Humberto, as well as the three noted areas of potential development, please visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

More updates both here and on our Facebook page as conditions warrant.

Stay safe!

Harvey to Make Landfall in Texas as Major Hurricane

Tropical Storm Harvey is now expected to be the first major hurricane to make landfall in The United States in over 12 years. Up to 24+ inches of rain is possible across the Texas Gulf Coast due to the slow-moving nature of the storm. Sustained winds of 115 mph with gusts potentially approaching 140 mph are now expected across wide swaths of the Texas Gulf Coast.

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The NHC 10 am CDT update depicting the potential path and intensity of Harvey over the next several days.

 

The 12 UTC NAM 3km computer model currently depicts a massive, dangerous storm making landfall in Texas tomorrow afternoon.

For more information, consult The National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov as well as The National Weather Service at http://www.weather.gov.

As Atlantic Hurricane Season Winds Down, Western Mexico Faces Major Hurricane Threat

10/22/15 8:00 PM AST: Hurricane Patricia strengthens rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane, Hurricane Warnings in place.

Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season is winding down, a massive Category 4 Hurricane Patricia is quickly moving towards the Central Mexican Pacific coastline.  This monster storm will also help bring massive amounts of rainfall to these areas along with parts of the Southern United States over the next several days.

The Forecast

At this time yesterday, Hurricane Patricia was only a Tropical Depression with sustained winds of only 35 MPH, and the forecast track was only suggesting the landfall at a maximum of a Category Two storm on the Mexican Coastline.  So what happened?

Well, since yesterday at this time, the forecast models have shifted as to support massive quick development of the storm due to warm ocean waters, and minimal wind shear.  Even though the official forecast track yesterday called for a moderate hurricane impact on the Mexican Coastline, some computer models such as the HWRF and the GFDL (Hurricane Computer Models) suggested that at least a potential Category Three storm impact was possible starting late on Tuesday.  These same computer models have steadily suggested a more violent impact since then.

For anyone with interests across along the Central-Pacific Mexican Coastline, please continue to monitor the storm and visit the NHC’s website for more information.