computer models – Weather 360

As Atlantic Hurricane Season Winds Down, Western Mexico Faces Major Hurricane Threat

October 22, 2015Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged Category 4 Hurricane, computer models, Delaware, eastern pacific hurricane season, flooding, GFDL, Hurricane, Hurricane Patricia, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, Hurricane Warnings, HWRF, Mexico, Mexico Hurricane Impact, nhc, Oklahoma, rain, Texas, Texas CoastlineLeave a comment

10/22/15 8:00 PM AST: Hurricane Patricia strengthens rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane, Hurricane Warnings in place.

Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season is winding down, a massive Category 4 Hurricane Patricia is quickly moving towards the Central Mexican Pacific coastline. This monster storm will also help bring massive amounts of rainfall to these areas along with parts of the Southern United States over the next several days.

The Forecast

At this time yesterday, Hurricane Patricia was only a Tropical Depression with sustained winds of only 35 MPH, and the forecast track was only suggesting the landfall at a maximum of a Category Two storm on the Mexican Coastline. So what happened?

Well, since yesterday at this time, the forecast models have shifted as to support massive quick development of the storm due to warm ocean waters, and minimal wind shear. Even though the official forecast track yesterday called for a moderate hurricane impact on the Mexican Coastline, some computer models such as the HWRF and the GFDL (Hurricane Computer Models) suggested that at least a potential Category Three storm impact was possible starting late on Tuesday. These same computer models have steadily suggested a more violent impact since then.

For anyone with interests across along the Central-Pacific Mexican Coastline, please continue to monitor the storm and visit the NHC’s website for more information.

Tropical Storm Erika may impact Southeast Coast, but will it make it there?

August 28, 2015August 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, computer models, Cuba, east coast, ECMWF, Euro, Florida, GFDL, GFS, Hispaniola, Hurricane, Hurricane Hunters, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Moutains, NAM, nhc, Puerto Rico, SFWMD, Southeastern United States, The Bahamas, The Turks and Caicos, The Virgin Islands, Tropical Storm Erika, Weather 360Leave a comment

As of 11:30 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika has sustained winds of about 50 MPH with gusts upwards of 60 MPH. The storm is moving west-northwestward at the moment over the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, parts of The Turks and Caicos along with The Bahamas, and all of Hispaniola. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft are in the storm.

The Track

This image is made public by the South Florida Water Management District (.gov)

The track seems to be locking in and narrowing down, well, at least compared to yesterday at this time, but nonetheless, the expected track and intensity are still at a state of ‘low confidence’ as mentioned by the NHC in their latest Tropical Forecast Discussion. The general trend though, is that the storm will pass over Hispaniola over the next day, then turn northward toward Florida, then possibly re curving, to go back over the Atlantic and to head up the East Coast. For those in Florida or along the Southeast Coast of the United States, please continue to monitor the situation, as the cone of uncertainty continues to include the possibility of a major storm impacting the Eastern Seaboard.

Intensity, Will She Survive?

Who knows, Erika is seeming to have a mind of her own as she has not followed the official NHC track whatsoever over the last several days. Although this is true, over the past hour or two Erika has seemed to finally get her act together (or the NHC for that matter) in determining the track, because Erika’s center of circulation along with her discombobulated thunderstorms have seemingly begun to shift to the northwest. Erika is expected to strengthen at least to a higher-grade Tropical Storm by the NHC, and by a very consistent computer model, the GFDL, a major Category Four storm off of the Southeast Coast. But what is the driving force behind its intensity? Mountains…

Believe it or not, the only difference in the computer models is if Erika will be torn up enough by the mountains for it not to reform to a well-defined system. According to the NHC, Erika will be so torn up by Hispaniola’s mountains, that it will not be able to strengthen too significantly before potential impact with Florida. This whereas the GFDL computer model along with some others, suggest a less torn-up version of Erika and strengthen her rapidly, causing her to not impact Florida for too long and move her up the US East Coast quickly as a large Major Hurricane (as of 6 UTC.)

Official Alerts:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, all of Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for parts of Cuba, and the northwest portions of The Bahamas.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Tropical Storm Warning areas are under a Level I Emergency, Locations under Tropical Storm Watches are under a Level II Alert, and a Level III, Be Aware, statement is for the Entire East Coast from Florida to Massachussetts.

Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Erika.

Computer models pointing to the rapid development of Invest 91-E in the Eastern Pacific

July 28, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged computer models, eastern pacific hurricane season, ECMWF, GFS, hawaii, Hurricane Season 2015, HWFI, HWRF, Invest 91-E, nhc, Short Range Computer ModelsLeave a comment

AS OF 9:30 PM EDT 7/28/2015

The National Hurricane Center in their most recent update on the Eastern Pacific indicates the growing support among the computer models of a rapidly growing storm in the Eastern Pacific. At the moment, the National Hurricane Center has odds of development for this storm over the next five days at 90%, an increase of 20% in two days, along with the odds of development over the next 48 hours up to 30%, up 30% from two and a half days ago.

Why would this tropical disturbance develop if the last one to develop failed so miserably?

First of all, this time around, the shorter range computer models did not really at one point indicate that former Invest 90-E (now weakening Tropical Depression Eight-E) would develop into a massive storm, but this still does not give reason to why Invest 91-E would develop. The reason for the increased odds of development for Invest 91-E (as opposed to Invest 90-E) is due to the warmer waters. Invest 91-E is further to the south than Invest 90-E was at the same longitude. This along with the fact that the ridges of high pressure steering this storm bring it into an area where wind shear (upper level winds that tear off the tops of Tropical Cyclones), is relatively at the point where there is close to zero of this phenomena.

All the ingredients are at the moment seeming to come together for what could potentially be a much larger tropical event than of its most recent predecessor, former Invest 90-E.

So for more updates regarding this storm system, stay tuned to Weather 360, and for emergency information, contact your Local Emergency Management Office if you are in the path of any current, or future storm.

Tropical Depression Eight forms along with Invest 91-E in Eastern Pacific

July 28, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged computer models, eastern pacific hurricane season, ECMWF, gf, hawaii, Invest 91E, Southern Pacific, tropical depression, Tropical Depression Eight-ELeave a comment

As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time

Not only does Hawaii have to worry about a potential Tropical Depression (which now appears not to be very likely at the moment), they now have to pay attention to yet another potential storm heading for Hawaii, but this time, there’s more fuel.

So what’s happening with this new Tropical Depression? Computer models can flip-flop positions rapidly, in turn, creating a broad area of obscurity behind all computer model generated forecasts, so what may have appeared to be a large potential storm yesterday, now appears to be a little storm that will clear the way for another potentially larger storm (currently named Invest 91-E).

Wait… what??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!?!!?

If you are currently thinking about the ‘potentially large storm to impact Hawaii’ we were talking about yesterday, you may be wondering if we had these two storms confused, and the truth is, not necessarily. Over the past few days we have had more and more indicators of two storms developing, but up until last night, the first storm was still expected by the majority of the computer models to be the stronger one. Although this was only until last night, this is fairly common in the confusing and misleading world of computer models, where long range models tell half of the story, then discarding of the story once the short range modes begin to pick it up, then right before a storm both of the types of computer models begin to suggest their original stories. (Sounds very similar to current popular YouTube theories on a game constantly pushing weather-related YouTube videos further and further down the most watched list…)

Okay, back to our main point…

How about this Invest-91 E thing, all I wanna know is if this storm’s gonna hit Hawaii. I know, right? Invest 91-E, Invest meaning the people at the NHC will start to pay more attention to this storm, is a rapidly developing cluster of thunderstorms in the south-central Eastern Pacific. A mouthful, we know… Anyways, this disturbance is moving to the west-northwest at around 15 MPH, and will be situating itself over the warmer Pacific waters as it makes its way to the Hawaii area.

Currently, this storm does have the potential to impact Hawaii as some sort of tropical entity. So for those with interests in the United States’ only state made up entirely of islands, stay tuned for more information, and on our Why Weather360 page, we will now clarify what exactly we cover in our forecast zone.

Feedback is always appreciated here at Weather 360!

TROPICAL STORM ANA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH/NORTH CAROLINA

May 10, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Ana, Atlantic Hurricane Season, computer models, early start to hurricane season, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, New York City Metro Area, nhc, thunderstorm, tropical disturbance, Tropical Storm, Weather, Weather NewsLeave a comment

The 50 MPH Tropical Storm Ana has just made landfall in South/North Carolina, bringing with it, rain, thunderstorms, and some storm surge. Tropical Storm Ana is the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and is also one of the earliest landfalls by a Tropical Cyclone on record. With Hurricane Season starting in over 20 days, some are now wondering how severe this upcoming season will be now… (this information can be found here at Weather 360.)

Where is Ana heading now?

(NHC prediction cone from earlier this morning.)

Where is Ana heading now? Well, according to this NHC prediction cone, Ana is making landfall right now in South/North Carolina, (the border of), and will soon lose its Tropical Storm characteristics, but will remain as a Tropical Depression (Ana) with winds of about 30 MPH up until impacting southern New England and Long Island with some waves and some wind (and some rain.)

Weather 360 will keep you posted, stay safe!

Where’s soon-to-be Ana heading?

May 7, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Ana, Atlantic Hurricane Season, computer models, early start to hurricane season, forecasts, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, tropical disturbance, Tropical StormLeave a comment

Have a look at our graphic, the red line on the coast means that imminent landfall is expected in the next two days.

Our graphic shows Invest 90L, which will then likely be Ana, moving into the SC/NC coastline, but due to the current run of the European computer model, we are having this storm ride up the coast a bit further, then veering out to sea before having a chance to make landfall in New York and New England.

At the moment, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is saying there is a 90% chance of development for this Invest 90L over the next 2 days. Due to this storm being more associated with the Jet Stream, this storm will likely be first classified as a Sub-Tropical Storm, but don’t be fooled by the “Sub”, these storms are the equivalent of a regular Tropical Storm, and if they break free of whatever holds them back, can quickly strengthen.

For preparedness tips for this storm, consult the NHC or your local emergency management center to stay safe.

Stay safe and be prepared!

INVEST 90L FORMS NEAR FLORIDA, MODELS HAVE THIS HEADING NORTH

May 6, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Ana, Atlantic Hurricane Season, computer models, current weather conditions, early start to hurricane season, east coast, forecasts, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest90L, Outer Banks, Potential Landfall, Southeastern United StatesLeave a comment

The computer models in a way have shifted overnight, instead of a track more into South Carolina, the majority of the computer models are suggesting that this storm will likely impact northern parts of South Carolina, and mostly coastal areas in North Carolina.

What is this talk about Invest 90L heading northwards?

The computer models are beginning to suggest that Invest 90L has the potential to become a Tropical Storm before landfall, but also some of the models are also beginning to suggest that this storm could impact the Outer Banks, then move further northward as a weak Tropical Depression and merge with an incoming system to bring more rain to the Northeast United States.

Weather 360 urges anyone living on or near the coast in areas that may be impacted by this storm later on this week to at least think about potentially evacuating due to storm surge and flooding or having an emergency hurricane kit, which is shown in an example on the side of this page. Please though, BEFORE you make any decisions, consult the NHC’s website, nhc.noaa.gov, to see what plan is best for you.