Ignacio expected not to impact Hawaii

Weather Bulletin: 7:30 AM EDT/ 1:30 AM HST 8/31/2015

Tropical Storm Watches have been discontinued for the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for maritime locations around the islands.

High surf advisories are in effect for land locations on storm facing parts of some islands.

Map of Forecast Area

Please visit Weather.gov for more information regarding watches and warnings currently in effect.

Remnants of Erika may redevelop, Tropical Storm Fred forms, Hurricane Ignacio may impact Hawaii

End of August Weather Overview: 2 PM EDT/AST, 8 AM HST August 30th 2015

Erika Redevelopment Recap

Over the past several days the weather world has been keeping a close eye on Erika, just about until yesterday, when it became a remnant low off the northern coast of Cuba.  After that point at 9:30 yesterday, almost all hope was lost for the redevelopment of Erika, but according to some short range computer models, the remnants moving northward across Central Florida, may redevelop a center of circulation soon off the Southeastern Coast.  So we’ll keep a close watch on this system over the upcoming several days.

Tropical Storm Fred Overview

Tropical Storm Fred formed yesterday off the coast of the Cape Verde Islands and is expected to become a hurricane while moving further northwest towards the central Atlantic.  Fred will thereafter weaken to a Tropical Storm once more and move quite quickly through the central Atlantic, the eventual destination is still at this point unknown.

Hawaii Hurricane Threat

Hurricane Ignacio is now a Category Four storm with winds upwards of 140 MPH, this storm is barreling to the northwest and is expected to graze the northern sides of the islands of Maui and the Big Island.  At the moment, Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for locations within The Big Island and all of Maui County.  For those with interests in the islands potentially affected by the storm, please continue to monitor the progress of this storm over the upcoming few days.

Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated on all of these threats over the coming days.

Guillermo closes in on Hawaii, Tropical Storm Watches issued for The Big Island and Maui

As newly downgraded (but still threatening) Tropical Storm Guillermo makes its way closer to the Hawaiian Islands, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu has been cranking away its newest advisories.

WEATHER 360 ISSUES A LEVEL II, ELEVATED ALERT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS CPHC ISSUES TROPICAL STORM WATCHES.

The newly issued Tropical Storm Watches for the two furthest east counties in Hawaii mean there is a potential for Tropical Storm conditions to occur in this area over the next 48 hours.  A Tropical Storm Warning means there is a certain level of certainty (normally fairly high…) that a Tropical Storm will impact said area within 36 hours of the statement made.

The following is the Tropical Storm Watch issued by the CPHC for The Big Island and Maui County:

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
545 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

...GUILLERMO MOVING NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LOCAL DETAILS REGARDING THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...
KAHOOLAWE...MAUI...THE BIG ISLAND.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM HST TUESDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1N...LONGITUDE 147.4W...OR ABOUT 515 MILES EAST
OF HILO AND ABOUT 715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST ESTIMATES THE CENTER OF
GUILLERMO WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAUI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WHILE THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE WORST WEATHER AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND OR
MAUI. THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS A PRECAUTION FOR
THOSE AREAS.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.
EVEN SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING
EFFECTS CAN EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE. SECURE OR
BRING INDOORS ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS LIKE LAWN FURNITURE...
CHILDRENS TOYS...HANGING PLANTS...BARBECUE GRILLS...OR ANY ITEM
THAT COULD BECOME A DESTRUCTIVE PROJECTILE IN STRONG WINDS. DO
NOT WAIT UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE.

STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS OR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. PERSONS
LIVING NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE QUICKLY
SHOULD BUILDING SURF THREATEN.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1230 AM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ012>028-041100-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.A.2009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
545 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...GARBAGE CANS...AND OTHER
ITEMS SHOULD BE SECURED OR STORED INDOORS.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS 14 PERCENT AT
HILO AND 17 PERCENT AT KAHULUI.

...WINDS...
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 39 MPH...34 KNOTS...ONLY A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF GUILLERMO COULD RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GUILLERMO PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LOWER IF GUILLERMO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

$$
R BALLARD


Weather 360 will bring you more information on Tropical Storm Guillermo and its potential effects on Hawaii after the next CPHC update at 8:00 AM HST (2:00 PM EDT)

Thefo,w

Hurricane Guillermo expected to impact Hawaii

UPDATE 1:00 PM PDT:

Now category two Hurricane Guillermo is now expected to impact the Hawaiian islands as either a mid grade Tropical Storm or as a weak category one storm.

We will update you shortly after this storm crosses over into the CPHC’s area of responsibility over the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Guillermo forms and is expected to cross paths with Hawaii

AS OF NOON JULY 30 EDT:

The National Hurricane Center has recently  upgraded former Invest 91-E to Tropical Storm status.  This newly formed Tropical Storm is expected to become a hurricane over the next day or two in the Eastern Pacific.  At the moment, nearly all the major spaghetti computer models are pointing at impact with Hawaii somewhere in between eary morning August 4 Hawaii Time, to somewhere around midday August 6 Hawaii Time.

The intensity computer models are not so sure though on the exact strength of this storm at the time of contact with Hawaii.  A few computer models suggest a potential Category 3 storm with winds surpassing 115 MPH.  And a few suggest a strong Tropical Storm with winds of about 60 MPH.  With all the current information we have, Weather 360 can start to assume that at the time of impact (which is still not 100%), Guillermo may be somewhere around the mid to high  Category 1 area, wth winds of around 80 MPH.  At the moment the NHC has forecasted winds the day before potential impact to be around 65 MPH.

Remember though, at any time all forecasts could shift tremendously, so nothing is ever 100% sure in the world of weather forecasting, especially when it comes to the longer range ones.

We will continue to keep everyone updated on the newly formed Tropical Storm Guillermo.

Computer models pointing to the rapid development of Invest 91-E in the Eastern Pacific

AS OF 9:30 PM EDT 7/28/2015

The National Hurricane Center in their most recent update on the Eastern Pacific indicates the growing support among the computer models of a rapidly growing storm in the Eastern Pacific.  At the moment, the National Hurricane Center has odds of development for this storm over the next five days at 90%, an increase of 20% in two days, along with the odds of development over the next 48 hours up to 30%, up 30% from two and a half days ago.

Why would this tropical disturbance develop if the last one to develop failed so miserably?

First of all, this time around, the shorter range computer models did not really at one point indicate that former Invest 90-E (now weakening Tropical Depression Eight-E) would develop into a massive storm, but this still does not give reason to why Invest 91-E would develop.  The reason for the increased odds of development for Invest 91-E (as opposed to Invest 90-E) is due to the warmer waters.  Invest 91-E is further to the south than Invest 90-E was at the same longitude.  This along with the fact that the ridges of high pressure steering this storm bring it into an area where wind shear (upper level winds that tear off the tops of Tropical Cyclones), is relatively at the point where there is close to zero of this phenomena.

All the ingredients are at the moment seeming to come together for what could potentially be a much larger tropical event than of its most recent predecessor, former Invest 90-E.

So for more updates regarding this storm system, stay tuned to Weather 360, and for emergency information, contact your Local Emergency Management Office if you are in the path of any current, or future storm.

Tropical Depression Eight forms along with Invest 91-E in Eastern Pacific

As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time

Not only does Hawaii have to worry about a potential Tropical Depression (which now appears not to be very likely at the moment), they now have to pay attention to yet another potential storm heading for Hawaii, but this time, there’s more fuel.

So what’s happening with this new Tropical Depression?  Computer models can flip-flop positions rapidly, in turn, creating a broad area of obscurity behind all computer model generated forecasts, so what may have appeared to be a large potential storm yesterday, now appears to be a little storm that will clear the way for another potentially larger storm (currently named Invest 91-E).

Wait… what??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!?!!?

If you are currently thinking about the ‘potentially large storm to impact Hawaii’ we were talking about yesterday, you may be wondering if we had these two storms confused, and the truth is, not necessarily. Over the past few days we have had more and more indicators of two storms developing, but up until last night, the first storm was still expected by the majority of the computer models to be the stronger one.  Although this was only until last night, this is fairly common in the confusing and misleading world of computer models, where long range models tell half of the story, then discarding of the story once  the short range modes begin to pick it up, then right before a storm both of the types of computer models begin to suggest their original stories. (Sounds very similar to current popular YouTube theories on a game constantly pushing weather-related YouTube videos further and further down the most watched list…)

Okay, back to our main point…

How about this Invest-91 E thing, all I wanna know is if this storm’s gonna hit Hawaii.  I know, right?  Invest 91-E, Invest meaning the people at the NHC will start to pay more attention to this storm, is a rapidly developing cluster of thunderstorms in the south-central Eastern Pacific. A mouthful, we know…  Anyways, this disturbance is moving to the west-northwest at around 15 MPH, and will be situating itself over the warmer Pacific waters as it makes its way to the Hawaii area.

Currently, this storm does have the potential to impact Hawaii as some sort of tropical entity.  So for those with interests in the United States’ only state made up entirely of islands, stay tuned for more information, and on our Why Weather360 page, we will now clarify what exactly we cover in our forecast zone.

Feedback is always appreciated here at Weather 360!

Hawaii Hurricane Soon?

WEATHER 360 IS RECOMMENDING AWARENESS FOR THE FOLLOWING POTENTIAL STORMS IN HAWAII.

At the moment, several different computer models are still forecasting what could potentially (emphasizing potentially here), be a significant hurricane or other tropical entity landfall.

WHAT?!?!?!?!?

Before anyone goes crazy with the explanation points, Weather 360 would like to continue to emphasize this is only one of many potential scenarios involving two areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific moving over into the Central Pacific area.

Still, what!?

According to the European computer model (Euro or ECMWF), the top computer model in the world in terms of forecasting, at least one of these disturbances moving west-northwest from the Eastern Pacific Basin may develop into a full fledged hurricane, one of which may have its potential eye set on the islands of Hawaii.  With the latest computer model run from the ECMWF, we can once again get a knew perspective on this potential storm(s).  In this new computer model run, one will be viewing a hurricane forecasters (potential) nightmare. With a pressure below 960 millibars, indicating a potential category 3 storm pre-landfall, this storm could have winds exceeding 120 MPH.  If this storm was to make landfall in the state of Hawaii, it would be one for the history books, this storm would go along the not terribly long list of major hurricanes to impact the islands of Hawaii.  Although only one major computer model is depicting this (again), potential storm, the reason Weather 360 is focusing in on this event is because the ECMWF is normally known for playing down major tropical events and changing their forecasts rapidly, and this storm has been suggested by the ECMWF for nearly a week.

I know this is the ‘best’ computer model for accuracy, what do the other computer models say?

Well, just recently (meaning over the past day or two), the GFS (known as about the 2nd ‘best’ computer model) along with many others, have been continuing to key into several variations of this scenario.  One of which includes the first and the second storm system impacting the state as Tropical Storms.  So, for those who may happen to be in Hawaii, or those expected to be there shortly, stay tuned for more updates, and for emergency information on this event, contact your local emergency maganagement office or the NHC (The Honolulu Center for Hawaii).

Post-post…:  Weather 360 will now cover any tropical event that may impact the U.S., whether it be Maine, or Hawaii.

Potential hurricane may impact the state of Hawaii

Over the past several computer model runs, the European Computer Model has consistently shown a disturbance forming in the Eastern Pacific that would make its way to the west-northwest over a period of several days that may render Hawaii as a potential target for this sub-995 potential millibar storm.  Although we are emphasizing the fact that this is only a POTENTIAL scenario, it is best to be alert and aware for anyone either in or going to the Central Pacific state of Hawaii.

ECMWF 7 23 15 FORECAST AS OF 12Z POTENTIAL HAWAII HURRICANE 992 MILLIBARS This image is a filter of the ECMWF from Tropicaltidbits (.com), depicting a potential hurricane in the Central Pacific in approximately 10 days time.

For more information you may rely on us here at Weather 360, but please, for emergency information, please rely on the National Hurricane Center and Weather.gov, along with your local emergency management office in the event of a potential landfall.

We’ll keep you updated on this event as time progresses.