Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Strengthen and May Impact East Coast

Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts.  Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.


The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences.  For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic.  The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.

At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.

Hawaii Hurricane Soon?


At the moment, several different computer models are still forecasting what could potentially (emphasizing potentially here), be a significant hurricane or other tropical entity landfall.


Before anyone goes crazy with the explanation points, Weather 360 would like to continue to emphasize this is only one of many potential scenarios involving two areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific moving over into the Central Pacific area.

Still, what!?

According to the European computer model (Euro or ECMWF), the top computer model in the world in terms of forecasting, at least one of these disturbances moving west-northwest from the Eastern Pacific Basin may develop into a full fledged hurricane, one of which may have its potential eye set on the islands of Hawaii.  With the latest computer model run from the ECMWF, we can once again get a knew perspective on this potential storm(s).  In this new computer model run, one will be viewing a hurricane forecasters (potential) nightmare. With a pressure below 960 millibars, indicating a potential category 3 storm pre-landfall, this storm could have winds exceeding 120 MPH.  If this storm was to make landfall in the state of Hawaii, it would be one for the history books, this storm would go along the not terribly long list of major hurricanes to impact the islands of Hawaii.  Although only one major computer model is depicting this (again), potential storm, the reason Weather 360 is focusing in on this event is because the ECMWF is normally known for playing down major tropical events and changing their forecasts rapidly, and this storm has been suggested by the ECMWF for nearly a week.

I know this is the ‘best’ computer model for accuracy, what do the other computer models say?

Well, just recently (meaning over the past day or two), the GFS (known as about the 2nd ‘best’ computer model) along with many others, have been continuing to key into several variations of this scenario.  One of which includes the first and the second storm system impacting the state as Tropical Storms.  So, for those who may happen to be in Hawaii, or those expected to be there shortly, stay tuned for more updates, and for emergency information on this event, contact your local emergency maganagement office or the NHC (The Honolulu Center for Hawaii).

Post-post…:  Weather 360 will now cover any tropical event that may impact the U.S., whether it be Maine, or Hawaii.

Thunderstorms expected this coming weekend initiates a Level III Alert for the NYC Area

At this time, a Level III Alert is in effect for our area.  This means there is a possible potential threat soon for our area.  This alert does have the potential to become a Level II Alert if conditions expected over the weekend continue to be expected, and if threatening conditions become imminent, there is the potential for a Level I, Most Urgent Emergency to replace the Level II Alert over the next 36 hours.  It is advised that those who may be affected by the potential threat be alert and aware of upcoming forecasts and advise given by your local Emergency Management Office and your local Weather Service Office.  According to the National Weather Service in New York, along with some computer generated models, there is the potential for thunderstorms to move into this area over the weekend.  For more information, view the latest post here at, or one of our latest Weather Broadcasts at our Weather 360 YouTube channel.  For emergency information, visit or your local NWS’s page for tips and forecasts.

Rain and thunder moving in over the weekend could pose a threat to millions


The next few days across the Tri-State Area will be for the most part, calm.  With temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s and little to no clouds in the sky, the next few days will feel like true Summer, unlike the temperatures from several days ago that made everyone feel like it was May again.  Although temperatures will be roughly the same during the start of next week, the potential for rain and thunderstorms will start to appear starting around early or midday Sunday.  Therefore, over the next 24 hours, Weather 360 will initiate its first issue of the 3.A.S. (3-Leveled Alert System.)  In this case, an Increasing Level III Alert will be issued as of tomorrow morning.  This means not only to be alert and aware that potentially threatening weather may move into our area over the next 36 hours or so, but also means that the threat level will likely increase to either Level II, or potentially a Level I, Most Urgent Alert.  If this alert was only a normal Level III Alert, then the threat level would likely not increase and one would only have to remain aware of the incoming weather conditions.