Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.
ECMWF VS GFS:
The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.
At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.
As of 11 AM this morning, Hurricane Danny is a 105 MPH wind, category two hurricane, with a pressure of about 980 millibars, and is making its way slowly to the west-northwest at about 12 MPH.
Not only was this not expected at this time, but due to this rapid strengthening, the intensity models have been steadily increasing the forecasted strength of Danny over the next week or so.
This is the intensity spaghetti model forecast provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Where is Danny Heading?
Locations that may be impacted by Danny over the next five days are the following: The northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
At the moment we are not ruling out a US impact by any means.
Visit our Hurricanes page for more information on the intensity and path of Hurricane Danny.
Have a look at the 12 UTC run of the CMC computer model.
What your seeing is the 12 UTC run from the CMC model, which, if you focus into the Southeastern Coast, you will see a simulated infrared image that depicts a well-developed cyclone with what appears to be an eye to the storm (meaning that this could be near/ at hurricane status soon.)
Due to this storm’s likelihood of being torn apart at the upper levels by a dip in the Jet Stream, it will likely originate as a Sub-Tropical system, with the potential to gain some tropical characteristics before its possible landfall there soon after. Although the CMC model is predicting a strong system to appear, most of the computer models are keeping this likely at or slightly below Tropical Storm stage. Still, at the moment, the forecasts are all over the place.
For anyone living on or near the Southeastern Coast, stay tuned to any possible announcements from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) regarding this system. You can also visit our Hurricanes 360 page for a view at our highlighted areas that may be at risk, be we do stress to always consult with the NHC before doing anything.
Stay safe, and stay tuned.