Hurricane Matthew Bears Down on Caribbean, Poses Threat to US

The monster  category 4 Hurricane Matthew is now beginning its path of destruction as it nears the northern Caribbean Islands. Up to over a foot of rain is expected over a wide swath of Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica, creating the possibility for mudslides and flash flooding.

The National Hurricane Center has forecasted the storm to barrel through The Caribbean and The Bahamas before potentially impacting the US.

Hurricane conditions can be expected across Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and all of Haiti over the next 48 hours, and hurricane conditions are increasingly likely for large swaths of the Bahamas as well as The Turks and Caicos.

After about 72 hours out, the forecast becomes a bit less certain, as it begins to be reliant on, multiple factors, for now, we’ll focus on two.

  • Factor 1: The low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest is weaker than expected, meaning that once it reaches Hurricane Matthew on the East Coast (if at all), it will not be able to slingshot the storm away from the coast as previously thought.
  • Factor 2: The high pressure system in the Atlantic is much more dominant than expected, indicating that it may act as a block in Matthew’s path, forcing it much, much closer to the coast, as reflected in last night’s shift in the spaghetti model plots.

*Hurricane Matthew is an extremely dangerous storm, it is highly recommended to prepare and evacuate as ordered by your local governments should they do so. Please consult The National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more info.*

Category 5 Hurricane Matthew may Impact US, but Uncertainty Remains

Hurricane Matthew, now a category 5 storm with winds in excess of 160 mph, is well on its way through the Caribbean, but is expected to take a sharp northerly turn sometime over the next 24 hours.

Current Rainbow Top Infrared Satellite view of Hurricane Matthew provided by the NOAA.

Hurricane Matthew is now, (unofficially as of 7:oo am 10/1/16), a category 5 hurricane, with winds in excess of 155 mph. Overnight, some interesting shifts in the computer models, a the NAVGEM as well as the GFS now point to a potentially devastating storm in the Northeast US sometime over the next week, on the other hand, the ECMWF has held firm in its ‘out to sea’ stance. There will be some interesting things to look for come the 12z run (by about 2:00 pm Eastern Time), so we’ll keep you updated.

*Hurricane Matthew is an extremely dangerous storm, it is highly recommended to prepare and evacuate as ordered by your local governments should they do so. Please consult The National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more info.*

Major Hurricane Matthew Taking Aim at Carribean

Hurricane Matthew, now a major hurricane, has undergone rapid intensification over the past 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches for Jamaica, as the storm is expected to make landfall there as a category three storm in a few days. After making landfall in Jamaica and traversing Cuba, Matthew is expected to reemerge over The Bahamas as a strong category 2 or weak category 3 storm.

Pictured above is the HWRF computer model simulated Infrared Satellite image for Wednesday October 5. This image was provided by Tropicaltidbits.com.

As far as forecasting the track and intensity of Matthew after this point, not much can be said besides that the storm will either skim the Southeast’s coast before turning out to sea, or the storm will ride parallel near to the coast all the way up to Canada. Either way, Hurricane Matthew poses a serious threat to life and property in locations ranging from the Caribbean to the Eastern Seaboard. More updates will be available here, and on our Facebook page over the following several days, but for official information, please consult The National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Hurricane Matthew.gif
Above is The National Hurricane Center’s projected path for Hurricane Matthew over the next 5 days. Hurricane watches are currently posted for all of Jamaica.

 

 

 

HURRICANE DANNY QUICKLY STRENGTHENS WHILE KEEPING ITS EYE SET ON THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS

As of 11 AM this morning, Hurricane Danny is a 105 MPH wind, category two hurricane, with a pressure of about 980 millibars, and is making its way slowly to the west-northwest at about 12 MPH.

Not only was this not expected at this time, but due to this rapid strengthening, the intensity models have been steadily increasing the forecasted strength of Danny over the next week or so.

Model Intensity Forecasts This is the intensity spaghetti model forecast provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Where is Danny Heading?

Locations that may be impacted by Danny over the next five days are the following:  The northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

At the moment we are not ruling out a US impact by any means.

Visit our Hurricanes page for more information on the intensity and path of Hurricane Danny.

Tropical Depression Four expected to strengthen and move towards Caribbean

This morning at 8 AM Eastern Time, the NHC declared former Invest 96L a Tropical Depression, the fourth of the season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin.  With a tightening circulation and strengthening winds, we here at Weather 360 can start to assume that this system will become Tropical Storm Danny shortly.  Although this system is moving slowly, and any impact to land is days out, many computer models are not ruling out the potential for a full-scale hurricane to form briefly before impacting the Lesser Antilles over the next several days to a week.

IR Satellite Image

The most recent satellite image from the NOAA of TD Four

We’ll keep you posted

Hawaii Hurricane Soon?

WEATHER 360 IS RECOMMENDING AWARENESS FOR THE FOLLOWING POTENTIAL STORMS IN HAWAII.

At the moment, several different computer models are still forecasting what could potentially (emphasizing potentially here), be a significant hurricane or other tropical entity landfall.

WHAT?!?!?!?!?

Before anyone goes crazy with the explanation points, Weather 360 would like to continue to emphasize this is only one of many potential scenarios involving two areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific moving over into the Central Pacific area.

Still, what!?

According to the European computer model (Euro or ECMWF), the top computer model in the world in terms of forecasting, at least one of these disturbances moving west-northwest from the Eastern Pacific Basin may develop into a full fledged hurricane, one of which may have its potential eye set on the islands of Hawaii.  With the latest computer model run from the ECMWF, we can once again get a knew perspective on this potential storm(s).  In this new computer model run, one will be viewing a hurricane forecasters (potential) nightmare. With a pressure below 960 millibars, indicating a potential category 3 storm pre-landfall, this storm could have winds exceeding 120 MPH.  If this storm was to make landfall in the state of Hawaii, it would be one for the history books, this storm would go along the not terribly long list of major hurricanes to impact the islands of Hawaii.  Although only one major computer model is depicting this (again), potential storm, the reason Weather 360 is focusing in on this event is because the ECMWF is normally known for playing down major tropical events and changing their forecasts rapidly, and this storm has been suggested by the ECMWF for nearly a week.

I know this is the ‘best’ computer model for accuracy, what do the other computer models say?

Well, just recently (meaning over the past day or two), the GFS (known as about the 2nd ‘best’ computer model) along with many others, have been continuing to key into several variations of this scenario.  One of which includes the first and the second storm system impacting the state as Tropical Storms.  So, for those who may happen to be in Hawaii, or those expected to be there shortly, stay tuned for more updates, and for emergency information on this event, contact your local emergency maganagement office or the NHC (The Honolulu Center for Hawaii).

Post-post…:  Weather 360 will now cover any tropical event that may impact the U.S., whether it be Maine, or Hawaii.

Potential hurricane may impact the state of Hawaii

Over the past several computer model runs, the European Computer Model has consistently shown a disturbance forming in the Eastern Pacific that would make its way to the west-northwest over a period of several days that may render Hawaii as a potential target for this sub-995 potential millibar storm.  Although we are emphasizing the fact that this is only a POTENTIAL scenario, it is best to be alert and aware for anyone either in or going to the Central Pacific state of Hawaii.

ECMWF 7 23 15 FORECAST AS OF 12Z POTENTIAL HAWAII HURRICANE 992 MILLIBARS This image is a filter of the ECMWF from Tropicaltidbits (.com), depicting a potential hurricane in the Central Pacific in approximately 10 days time.

For more information you may rely on us here at Weather 360, but please, for emergency information, please rely on the National Hurricane Center and Weather.gov, along with your local emergency management office in the event of a potential landfall.

We’ll keep you updated on this event as time progresses.

INVEST 90L FORMS NEAR FLORIDA, MODELS HAVE THIS HEADING NORTH

The computer models in a way have shifted overnight, instead of a track more into South Carolina, the majority of the computer models are suggesting that  this storm will likely impact northern parts of South Carolina, and mostly coastal areas in North Carolina.

What is this talk about Invest 90L heading northwards?

The computer models are beginning to suggest that Invest 90L has the potential to become a Tropical Storm before landfall, but also some of the models are also beginning to suggest that this storm could impact the Outer Banks, then move further northward as a weak Tropical Depression and merge with an incoming system to bring more rain to the Northeast United States.

Weather 360 urges anyone living on or near the coast in areas that may be impacted by this storm later on this week to at least think about potentially evacuating due to storm surge and flooding or having an emergency hurricane kit, which is shown in an example on the side of this page.  Please though, BEFORE you make any decisions, consult the NHC’s website, nhc.noaa.gov, to see what plan is best for you.