Potential US Landfall – Weather 360

Hurricane Matthew Bears Down on Caribbean, Poses Threat to US

October 3, 2016October 3, 2016Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Matthew Bears Down on Caribbean Poses Threat to US, Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Major Hurricane, Potential for Significant Damage, Potential Landfall, Potential US Landfall, Storm Surge PotentialLeave a comment

The monster category 4 Hurricane Matthew is now beginning its path of destruction as it nears the northern Caribbean Islands. Up to over a foot of rain is expected over a wide swath of Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica, creating the possibility for mudslides and flash flooding.

The National Hurricane Center has forecasted the storm to barrel through The Caribbean and The Bahamas before potentially impacting the US.

Hurricane conditions can be expected across Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and all of Haiti over the next 48 hours, and hurricane conditions are increasingly likely for large swaths of the Bahamas as well as The Turks and Caicos.

After about 72 hours out, the forecast becomes a bit less certain, as it begins to be reliant on, multiple factors, for now, we’ll focus on two.

Factor 1: The low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest is weaker than expected, meaning that once it reaches Hurricane Matthew on the East Coast (if at all), it will not be able to slingshot the storm away from the coast as previously thought.

Factor 2: The high pressure system in the Atlantic is much more dominant than expected, indicating that it may act as a block in Matthew’s path, forcing it much, much closer to the coast, as reflected in last night’s shift in the spaghetti model plots.

*Hurricane Matthew is an extremely dangerous storm, it is highly recommended to prepare and evacuate as ordered by your local governments should they do so. Please consult The National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more info.*

Category 5 Hurricane Matthew may Impact US, but Uncertainty Remains

October 1, 2016October 1, 2016Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged category 5 hurricane, Hurricane Matthew, Major Hurricane, Potential for Significant Damage, Potential Landfall, Potential US Landfall, Tropical CycloneLeave a comment

Hurricane Matthew, now a category 5 storm with winds in excess of 160 mph, is well on its way through the Caribbean, but is expected to take a sharp northerly turn sometime over the next 24 hours.

Current Rainbow Top Infrared Satellite view of Hurricane Matthew provided by the NOAA.

Hurricane Matthew is now, (unofficially as of 7:oo am 10/1/16), a category 5 hurricane, with winds in excess of 155 mph. Overnight, some interesting shifts in the computer models, a the NAVGEM as well as the GFS now point to a potentially devastating storm in the Northeast US sometime over the next week, on the other hand, the ECMWF has held firm in its ‘out to sea’ stance. There will be some interesting things to look for come the 12z run (by about 2:00 pm Eastern Time), so we’ll keep you updated.

Major Hurricane Matthew Taking Aim at Carribean

September 30, 2016September 30, 2016Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged Category 4 Hurricane, Hurricane, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, HWRF, Major Hurricane, Potential Landfall, Potential US LandfallLeave a comment

Hurricane Matthew, now a major hurricane, has undergone rapid intensification over the past 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches for Jamaica, as the storm is expected to make landfall there as a category three storm in a few days. After making landfall in Jamaica and traversing Cuba, Matthew is expected to reemerge over The Bahamas as a strong category 2 or weak category 3 storm.

Pictured above is the HWRF computer model simulated Infrared Satellite image for Wednesday October 5. This image was provided by Tropicaltidbits.com.

As far as forecasting the track and intensity of Matthew after this point, not much can be said besides that the storm will either skim the Southeast’s coast before turning out to sea, or the storm will ride parallel near to the coast all the way up to Canada. Either way, Hurricane Matthew poses a serious threat to life and property in locations ranging from the Caribbean to the Eastern Seaboard. More updates will be available here, and on our Facebook page over the following several days, but for official information, please consult The National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Hurricane Matthew.gif — Above is The National Hurricane Center’s projected path for Hurricane Matthew over the next 5 days. Hurricane watches are currently posted for all of Jamaica.

Tropical Depression Nine Expected to Become a Tropical Storm Today; Track Uncertainty Remains in the Long Term

August 31, 2016August 31, 2016Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Watches, Mid Atlantic, New England, New York City Metro Area, potential hurricane, Potential US Landfall, Southeastern United States, Storm Surge Potential, Tampa, Tropical Depression 9, Tropical Storm Hermine, Tropical Storm Warnings, US Landfall Likely, Weather 360, Weather360, Weather360.netLeave a comment

Tropical Depression 9, the swirling mass of clouds just to the north of The Yucatan in the image to the left, is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm sometime over the next several hours. The warm waters of The Gulf combined with little shear has finally allowed this storm to grow rapidly over the past couple of days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued Hurricane Watches as well as Tropical Storm Warnings for much of the Big Bend area of Florida north of Tampa. Although the storm is not currently expected to become a hurricane before landfall, it will come close to doing so with sustained winds of about 65 MPH, so Hurricane Watches are still in effect for the area. Although a sort of model consensus has been reached regarding the short term for this storm, mayhem continues as some computer models have begun to indicate a shift to the west once it passes North Carolina. If this storm were to shift to the west as now indicated by some of the more trustworthy computer models, it would mean that impacts from this storm would be felt as far north as New England. As of now, The NHC has put a 50% chance of a 3 to 5 foot storm surge occurring in The Long Island Sound, but until the computer models receive more information, it is unlikely we will know the exact track. More updates will ne available here over the next several days, but please visit The National Hurricane Center at nhc.noaa.gov before making any decisions.

Tropical Depressions Take Aim at US Coast

August 30, 2016August 30, 2016Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, CMC, Florida, JMA, New York City Metro Area, Potential US Landfall, The Outer Banks, Tropical Depression 8, Tropical Depression 9, Tropical Storm Warnings, UKMET, Weather 360, Weather360, Weather360.netLeave a comment

Tropical Depression 8 as well as Tropical Depression 9 are now expected to impact The US as Tropical Storms. Tropical Depression 8 is currently nearing The Outer Banks and is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm soon, prompting Tropical Storm Warnings for nearly the entire Outer Banks. Tropical Depression 9 has finished moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as of this morning, and is expected to become a Tropical Storm over the next 48 hours as it begins its northeast turn towards Florida. After impacting portions of northwestern Florida, the storm is expected to reemerge over The Atlantic and continue to head to the northeast. Recently, some computer models such as The JMA (Based in Japan), The CMC (Based in Canada, as well as The UKMET (Based in The UK), have suggested a turn to the north and northwest, towards the coast of The Mid-Atlantic. There is no cause for concern quite yet for those in and around NYC, but Weather 360 will continue to monitor the situation.

TD8 TD9 Track NHC 83016.png — Tropical Depression 8 (left) has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for The Outer Banks of North Carolina, and Tropical Depression 9 (right) is making its way towards Florida. These images are distributed by The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Invest 99L Expected to Impact US; Intensity Remains Uncertain

August 28, 2016August 28, 2016Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Invest 99L, Potential US Landfall, tropical wave, Weather 360, Weather360.netLeave a comment

Invest 99L formed east of the Leeward Islands as a Tropical Wave about 10 days ago, since then, the storm has made its way to The Straits of Florida, where it is currently attempting to organize itself. Recent satellite images have indicated that the storm is beginning to regain a center of circulation, and recent computer model runs have suggested a potential hurricane impacting portions of western Florida over the following several days.

Although coming closer to the potential time of impact, the storm is not yet organized to the point at which the National Hurricane Center may issue advisories, and a model consensus has by no means yet been reached. Weather 360 will continue to provide updates on Invest 99L on here and on our Hurricane Center page over the coming days.

Invest 99L Poses Threat to US Mainland

August 23, 2016Posted in Major Storm, summer, Tropical CyclonesTagged Broad Area of Low Pressure, Cape Verde Islands, east coast, East Coast Hurricane Threat, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Invest 99L, Leeward Islands, National Hurricane Season, Potential US Landfall, Satellite Imagery, Tropical Depression Fiona, Tropical Storm GastoneLeave a comment

Invest 99L is an area of disturbed weather and thunderstorms currently moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph just east of the Leeward Islands. The storm has already defied some expectations that further organization would stall until the area of low pressure moved closer to Hispaniola, and has prompted an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft trip into the storm later this morning. In the short term, a bit of a model consensus has been reached in terms of whether will the storm go north or south of Hispaniola, and over the past several days, more and more computer models have moved their tracks further to the north of the cyclone-killing mountains in Haiti and The Dominican Republic. The most likely storm track is as follows; the storm will likely go north of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas before either being pulled north, or continuing on a track west over Florida (Sorry for the uncertainty, it’s still a bit early…) The most likely tracks do have one thing in common beyond the short term track though; most suggest landfall of at least a Tropical Depression somewhere on the East Coast of The United States. Whether the storm traverses Florida and makes another landfall somewhere in the Gulf before being pulled back into The Atlantic, or whether the storm moves up The East Coast, The United States will likely be impacted in some way, shape, or form by what is now Invest 99L. It is important for those on The East Coast of The United States as well as those on the west coast of Florida to monitor the situation as it progresses and to stay tuned to updates from the National Hurricane Center.

Here's a look at The Tropical Atlantic Basin Satellite Imagery. 
Tropical Depression Fiona is north of The Leeward Islands, 
Invest 99L is east of the Leeward Islands,
And Tropical Storm Gastone is just west of The Cape Verde Islands.

More detail regarding Computer Model variations and outcomes can be found at our Hurricane Center page, where Weather360 is currently covering Invest 99L, Tropical Storm Gastone, as well as Tropical Depression Fiona in The Atlantic.

HURRICANE DANNY QUICKLY STRENGTHENS WHILE KEEPING ITS EYE SET ON THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS

August 21, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Atlantic cyclone, Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Hispaniola, Hurricane Danny, Hurricane Season 2015, Leeward Islands, Potential Landfall, Potential US Landfall, Puerto RicoLeave a comment

As of 11 AM this morning, Hurricane Danny is a 105 MPH wind, category two hurricane, with a pressure of about 980 millibars, and is making its way slowly to the west-northwest at about 12 MPH.

Not only was this not expected at this time, but due to this rapid strengthening, the intensity models have been steadily increasing the forecasted strength of Danny over the next week or so.

This is the intensity spaghetti model forecast provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Where is Danny Heading?

Locations that may be impacted by Danny over the next five days are the following: The northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

At the moment we are not ruling out a US impact by any means.

Visit our Hurricanes page for more information on the intensity and path of Hurricane Danny.