Tropical Storm Harvey is now expected to be the first major hurricane to make landfall in The United States in over 12 years. Up to 24+ inches of rain is possible across the Texas Gulf Coast due to the slow-moving nature of the storm. Sustained winds of 115 mph with gusts potentially approaching 140 mph are now expected across wide swaths of the Texas Gulf Coast.
Tropical Depression 9, the swirling mass of clouds just to the north of The Yucatan in the image to the left, is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm sometime over the next several hours. The warm waters of The Gulf combined with little shear has finally allowed this storm to grow rapidly over the past couple of days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued Hurricane Watches as well as Tropical Storm Warnings for much of the Big Bend area of Florida north of Tampa. Although the storm is not currently expected to become a hurricane before landfall, it will come close to doing so with sustained winds of about 65 MPH, so Hurricane Watches are still in effect for the area. Although a sort of model consensus has been reached regarding the short term for this storm, mayhem continues as some computer models have begun to indicate a shift to the west once it passes North Carolina. If this storm were to shift to the west as now indicated by some of the more trustworthy computer models, it would mean that impacts from this storm would be felt as far north as New England. As of now, The NHC has put a 50% chance of a 3 to 5 foot storm surge occurring in The Long Island Sound, but until the computer models receive more information, it is unlikely we will know the exact track. More updates will ne available here over the next several days, but please visit The National Hurricane Center at nhc.noaa.gov before making any decisions.
Invest 99L formed east of the Leeward Islands as a Tropical Wave about 10 days ago, since then, the storm has made its way to The Straits of Florida, where it is currently attempting to organize itself. Recent satellite images have indicated that the storm is beginning to regain a center of circulation, and recent computer model runs have suggested a potential hurricane impacting portions of western Florida over the following several days.
Although coming closer to the potential time of impact, the storm is not yet organized to the point at which the National Hurricane Center may issue advisories, and a model consensus has by no means yet been reached. Weather 360 will continue to provide updates on Invest 99L on here and on our Hurricane Center page over the coming days.
Invest 99L is an area of disturbed weather and thunderstorms currently moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph just east of the Leeward Islands. The storm has already defied some expectations that further organization would stall until the area of low pressure moved closer to Hispaniola, and has prompted an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft trip into the storm later this morning. In the short term, a bit of a model consensus has been reached in terms of whether will the storm go north or south of Hispaniola, and over the past several days, more and more computer models have moved their tracks further to the north of the cyclone-killing mountains in Haiti and The Dominican Republic. The most likely storm track is as follows; the storm will likely go north of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas before either being pulled north, or continuing on a track west over Florida (Sorry for the uncertainty, it’s still a bit early…) The most likely tracks do have one thing in common beyond the short term track though; most suggest landfall of at least a Tropical Depression somewhere on the East Coast of The United States. Whether the storm traverses Florida and makes another landfall somewhere in the Gulf before being pulled back into The Atlantic, or whether the storm moves up The East Coast, The United States will likely be impacted in some way, shape, or form by what is now Invest 99L. It is important for those on The East Coast of The United States as well as those on the west coast of Florida to monitor the situation as it progresses and to stay tuned to updates from the National Hurricane Center.
Here's a look at The Tropical Atlantic Basin Satellite Imagery.
Tropical Depression Fiona is north of The Leeward Islands,
Invest 99L is east of the Leeward Islands,
And Tropical Storm Gastone is just west of The Cape Verde Islands.
More detail regarding Computer Model variations and outcomes can be found at our Hurricane Center page, where Weather360 is currently covering Invest 99L, Tropical Storm Gastone, as well as Tropical Depression Fiona in The Atlantic.
This morning the NHC classified an area of disturbed weather with winds of 60 MPH with a well defined center of circulation as the second Tropical Storm of the year and the second Tropical Storm to make landfall this year in the United States, Tropical Storm Bill. Currently, areas from the Louisiana border with Texas to the Mexican border near Brownsville are receiving some storm surge and winds in excess of 60 MPH along with torrential rains moving ashore. The NHC has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the majority of the Texan eastern coast. Several computer models are hinting (if not all of them) at the possibility of this storm maintaining at the very least Tropical Depression status several hundred miles inland, possibly to areas as far from the coast as Illinois or Indiana. This storm is also bringing torrential rains to traverse the country as an abundance of tropical moisture comes through via Tropical Storm Bill. So, over the following days, rain will continue to spread over hard hit areas by flooding just about a week and a half ago, potentially bringing back severe flooding to areas susceptible to flooding.
For anyone in areas that are on the coast in Texas that will be impacted by Tropical Storm Bill, remain indoors unless absolutely necessary, and if you just go outdoors, exercise extreme caution and heed all warnings set out by the NHC.
Current Invest 91L (As of 7:00 PM EST June 15th 2015), is now expected to become Tropical Storm Bill later on this night before making landfall somewhere between Port Lavaca, Texas and Galveston, Texas. This storm already has sustained winds of about 45 MPH and is quickly developing a more organized center of circulation. This storm will dump anywhere between 2 and 8 inches of rain from the Texas coastline to Indiana and Ohio before losing all of its remaining moisture over land. Current invest 91L will also likely maintain its strength for several hundred miles inland as a Tropical Storm with winds above 40 MPH and torrential rains until it reaches the Missouri border with Kansas. For anyone living on or near the coastline between Galveston and Port Lavaca, please consult the NHC or your local emergency management center, and for those who live near or on the shoreline of a river or stream that is prone to flooding, please keep yourself up-to-date with any advisories, watches, or even warnings that may come your way as a result of this storm system, and do not forget to finish up any emergency preparations before the storm hits you.
We will keep you up to date and for detailed information regarding the soon to be Tropical Storm Bill, consult first with the NHC, then come on over to our Hurricanes 360 page to see what we here at Weather 360 could do to help you ride out the storm.
*We would also like to apologize for the mix up on our last post, Invest 91L is the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 90L was Tropical Storm Ana in early May before it developed.
INVEST 90L IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
In less than 3 days, current Invest 90L is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Depression or Storm and make landfall somewhere between Galveston, Texas, and the Louisiana border. This storm is expected to not only bring some wind and some storm surge threats, but this storm will bring in enough moisture to cause intense rains and thunderstorms that may cause flooding.
Here’s a look at the GFS’s forecasted amount of precipitation
As you can see, over the next 5 or so days, the moisture from the current Invest 90L will make its way through the central United States, before dumping the last of its rain on the majority of the Northeast and portions of Southeastern Canada. Be on the lookout for heavy rains mid to late week next week in and around NYC.
For more information on Invest 90L, go to our Hurricanes page, and for emergency information for floods or tropical cyclone watches or warnings please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and weather.gov.
The NHC has increased the odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. This morning, the odds for tropical entity development in the Gulf of Mexico according to the NHC has been raised to about 20% over the next five days. This area of tropical disturbance is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and drift into the central, western Gulf of Mexico, where it will have the opportunity to develop and strengthen (slightly), before moving over land somewhere on the United States Gulf of Mexico shore.
There are several different outcomes that may occur for this tropical disturbance. Outcome one: The GFS computer model along with the ECMWF (The European computer model) are expecting this storm to stay as a weak tropical wave and only bring some moisture and wind to the Gulf Coast. Outcome two: This outcome, mainly promoted by the CMC computer model with some others, suggests that the disturbance will develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast (likely somewhere in between New Orleans and Brownsville (TX).
At the moment, tropical development is still not extremely likely, but we will keep an eye on this storm over the next several days.