The NHC has increased the odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.  This morning, the odds for tropical entity development in the Gulf of Mexico according to the NHC has been raised to about 20% over the next five days.  This area of tropical disturbance is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and drift into the central, western Gulf of Mexico, where it will have the opportunity to develop and strengthen (slightly), before moving over land somewhere on the United States Gulf of Mexico shore.

There are several different outcomes that may occur for this tropical disturbance.   Outcome one: The GFS computer model along with the ECMWF (The European computer model) are expecting this storm to stay as a weak tropical wave and only bring some moisture and wind to the Gulf Coast.                                                                                   Outcome two: This outcome, mainly promoted by the CMC computer model with some others, suggests that the disturbance will develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast (likely somewhere in between New Orleans and Brownsville (TX).

At the moment, tropical development is still not extremely likely, but we will keep an eye on this storm over the next several days.