Mid Atlantic – Weather 360

Uncertainty Remains as Major Weekend Storm Nears

January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Extreme Cold, Freezing Rain, GFS, High Winds, Ice, Mid Atlantic, NAM, New England, New York City, New York Metro Area, Power Outages, rain, Sleet, snow, Snow StormLeave a comment

Aside from several inches in November, it has been ten months since there has been significant snowfall seen in the New York City Metropolitan Area. This is now expected to change as soon as this weekend, as a significant winter weather event has begun to move east.

gfsfv3 1 16 19 102hr mslp — The evening run of the FV3 GFS computer model on January 16, 2019. Any slight shift to the east or south with this storm could mean extremely high snow totals closer to, or even south of, I-95. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Snow will quickly develop and intensify as it moves into the Tri-State Area late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, bringing with it rapid accumulations on most surfaces. However, the position of the storm will dictate if and when many locations will see a changeover to sleet, ice, or rain.

At the moment, it appears that locations north of the city and I-95 will experience this transition as early as 9 am Sunday, allowing for potentially significant ice accretions on many surfaces by noon Sunday.

Whether or not the precipitation remains frozen or becomes rain during the day, snow and ice will redevelop by the afternoon as temperatures drop and winds increase Sunday night. It is also important to note that, regardless of the direct impacts of the storm, temperatures will fall to near below zero throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England by early Monday morning. This rapid refreezing could mean any liquid precipitation that falls may become ice on roads, trees, and power lines quickly after the storm exits the area.

nam12km 1 16 19 84hr — The evening run of the NAM 12km computer model on January 16, 2019. This particular run suggests a delayed transition from snow to ice or rain around NYC, meaning snow accumulations could run much higher than currently expected. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Due to the uncertain nature of the this storm, Weather 360 is currently forecasting anywhere between 4 and 12+ inches north of I-95, with anywhere between 3 and 8+ inches to its east and south. Forecasts will be refined in the coming days as the center of the storm develops, but for now, be prepared for a storm that could knock out power, make travel dangerous for an extended period of time, and dump a significant amount of snow, sleet, ice, and rain.

First Accumulating Snow of Season Expected Thursday

November 13, 2018November 14, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, First snow, Heavy Snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Nor'easter, snow, snow event, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.

This is the first Weather 360 forecast made with the aid of a new forecasting algorithm tailored to the NYC Metro Area. Updated as of 8 pm ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.

The potential for heavy snow to develop quickly Thursday afternoon over the NYC Metro Area.

As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.

Hybrid Storm Takes Aim on Northeast

October 29, 2017Posted in Major Storm, severe weather, Tropical CyclonesTagged Dangerous conditions, flooding, Halloween Snowstorm Anniversary, High Winds, Hurricane Sandy Anniversary, Hybrid Storm, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, Northeast, Power Outages, Rapid Strengthening, Superstorm, Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm Philippe, United States, Widespread Power OutagesLeave a comment

Tropical Storm Philippe has merged with a cold front off the coast of Delaware. The new center of low pressure is rapidly intensifying and continuing to push tropical moisture northwards. The core of the storm, as forecasted by nearly all computer models over the past 24 hours, is developing rapidly and, once onshore, is expected to bring with it wind gusts that could reach hurricane force. Today also happens to be the five year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, and the six year anniversary of the Halloween Snowstorm of 2011. This storm, although not as strong as either of these two infamous events, shares multiple, peculiar characteristics with both storms, including but not limited to the ‘negative dip’ in the jet stream, an atmospheric condition responsible for Sandy’s ‘sharp left turn’ into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as its combining with another storm system to create a hybrid-superstorm.

Hybrid Storm 10 29 17 625 PM Radar Image.gif — Northeast US Radar as of 6:25 PM Eastern Time.

The National Weather Service has issued a high wind warning for the entire NYC Metro Area, meaning that high winds will likely cause widespread power outages and will cause fallen items to block roadways. A flood warning is also in effect for the area, meaning that conditions are favorable for roadways and other low-lying locations to flood due to the excessive amount of rainfall. If travel is necessary, exercise extreme caution going into tonight and into tomorrow.

For more information, visit The National Weather Service at www.weather.gov.

Blizzard Warnings Issued, Massive Snow Accumulation Expected

March 13, 2017January 18, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weekly ForecastTagged 2 feet+, Blizzard, Dangerous conditions, Major Storm, Massive Blizzard, Mid Atlantic, New England, New York Metro Area, Northeast, WhiteoutLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has extended Blizzard Warnings for more than half of the NYC Metropolitan Area. Expect high winds in excess of 40 to 60 mph, snow totals approaching 28″, and downed trees and power lines.

Snow Accumulation 14 — Expect at least 12″ in most areas, and as much as 2′ in many areas by Wednesday.

This storm will likely be the largest blizzard in 2, or even 5 years. The proximity of this storm to the coast will mean high winds and heavy snow will make for whiteout conditions. If you do not have to, avoid travel. For more information, visit us here or on our Facebook page. To learn more about the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov.

Crippling Blizzard Expected Tuesday

March 12, 2017March 12, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 2 feet+, Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, Heavy Snow, Major Blizzard, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, nyc, NYC Metro Area, Power Outages, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches remain in effect for locations across the NYC area. Weather 360 is now forecasting that up to 2′ of snow is possible in locations situated mainly to the west and the north of the city, and that at least 6″ of snow will accumulate even in the event the storm does not make a “direct” hit.

Snow Accumulation 12 — Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Totals Forecasts update about every 6 hours ahead of storms. Currently, Weather 360 is calling for at least 6″, and at most up to 2′.

It is increasingly likely that blizzard conditions will be felt on Tuesday, as heavy wet snow combined with wind gusts approaching 45+ mph may make for white out conditions. Due to the wind and snow, expect power to go out in some areas and take appropriate precautions ahead of the storm. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We’ll continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here, and on our Facebook page.

Major Winter Storm Prompts Alerts in NYC Area

March 11, 2017January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, ECMWF, GFS, Major Snowstorm, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are in effect for the entire NYC area. The National Weather Service is currently calling for up to 18″ of snow in some locations, as more major computer models have continued to suggest a strong Nor’easter developing off the East Coast by Tuesday morning.

GFS ECMWF 3 11 17 3 15 17 BLIZZARD — The GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) computer models from this morning. In the most recent runs, both models have suggested an essentially identical storm that will come in close proximity to the Mid Atlantic/New England coast, putting it in an ideal position to dump massive amounts of precipitation on the area.

Weather 360 is estimating that maximum snow totals in the area may exceed 18″ should the storm remain close enough to the coast to bring its moisture inland, but far enough away to keep temperatures below the freezing line. Even in the event that the storm does not remain in the Nor’easter ‘Goldilocks Zone’, expect there to be at least 3-6″ of snow on the ground by Wednesday morning. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We will continue to post updates on the progress of this storm over the coming days both here, and on our Facebook page.

Up to 8″ of Snow Possible Tomorrow; Major Storm Potential Next Week

March 9, 2017March 10, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 8" of snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, winter storm, Winter Weather, Winter Weather AdvisoryLeave a comment

Over half a foot of snow is possible tomorrow across large swaths of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Starting around midnight tonight, snow associated with an incoming weak low pressure system will move into the NYC area. Most of the snow should move out of the area by noon, but not before dumping an estimated 4-8 inches of snow.

HRRR computer model total snowfall accumulation by 4 pm ET 3/10/17.

Expect roads to be slick and potentially covered by a layer of snow and potentially some ice during the morning commute.

Going into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a potentially major Nor’easter may bring up to 2 feet of snow to New England and the Mid Atlantic. However, as this storm system is still not yet developed, it is difficult to forecast this with great accuracy, but recent trends have indicated that the potential for a major storm is increasing, and in the meantime, we’ll keep you informed.

Wintry Mess Expected Tomorrow

February 11, 2017February 11, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Freezing Rain, Ice, Mid Atlantic, New England, New York City Weather Forecast, New York Metro Area, Sleet, snow, winter storm, wintry weatherLeave a comment

Only 2 days after the largest storm of the season, the Northeast is on the brink of yet another major winter weather event. In southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England, snow in the morning will likely transition to a wintry mix or rain by the afternoon, but further to the north, cooler conditions will allow for up to 2 feet of snow to accumulate in some areas.

The most significant differences in snow accumulation are expected to occur between locations further to the south and closer to the coast, and those slightly further to the north and inland. In the NYC Metro Area, up to a foot of snow, sleet, as well as some ice is possible in locations to the north of Westchester, whereas in coastal NJ, NY, and CT, only a few inches of snow is expected before the transition to more liquidy precipitation takes place.

Regardless of accumulation, expect weather conditions tomorrow to reduce visibility and hamper travel all day. Please be aware of the weather conditions at your current location as well as in your destination if you intend to travel. More safety related information can be found at http://www.weather.gov.

Major Winter Storm Tomorrow

February 8, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Blizzard Warning, Blizzard-Like Conditions, Historic Snowstorm, Mid Atlantic, New England, NYC Metro Area, NYC Weather, Winter Storm Niko, Winter Storm WarningLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings have been issued for the entire I-95 Corridor from New York to Boston. Exactly 4 years ago, Winter Storm Nemo created the exact same situation. Winter Storm Nemo, pictured below in an NOAA Surface Analysis, dumped 40 inches of snow in parts of Connecticut, and while tomorrow’s winter storm (named ‘Niko’) will likely dump no more than a foot and a half, it certainly is expected to resemble the historic storm that took place 4 years ago.

winter-storm-nemo-surface-analysis — Tomorrow marks the 4th anniversary of Winter Storm Nemo (above), and for the occasion, a nearly identical system is expected.

Expect high winds and heavy snow lasting from late tonight until tomorrow afternoon to greatly reduce visibility and knock down some tree limbs and power lines. Many schools across the area will likely be closed tomorrow, as the storm will also greatly reduce the ability to travel. Due to the remaining uncertainty in the storm’s intensity as it passes the area, Weather 360 is forecasting snow totals to vary from 6 inches in locations on the immediate coast, to as much as 16 inches for locations not much further inland.

For information regarding watches, warnings, and advisories, visit weather.gov, and in the meantime, we’ll keep you posted.

Foot of Snow Possible Thursday

February 7, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Heavy Snow, Major Snowstorm, Mid Atlantic, New England, NYC Metro Area, Weather OutlookLeave a comment

Over the past several days, more and more computer models have suggested that a ‘clipper’ snow storm would intensify just off the coast, dumping upwards of several inches of snow. Due to temperatures well-above average tomorrow, expect a small layer of ice on surfaces under all the snow Thursday, as some precipitation early on will fall as snow, melt, then freeze before it can accumulate.

Above is the 6 UTC run of the NAM computer model displaying simulated radar for 7 am Thursday. Source: NOAA

Weather 360 is forecasting that a maximum of 12-18 inches of snow at this time in central portions of the Metro Area, with at least 3-6 inches of snow in locations further to the north, or at the freezing line at the immediate coast. The forecasted track and intensity of this storm are still fluctuating, so more information will be posted over the coming days. As always, please consult the NWS at weather.gov before making any decisions.