11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.
THE FREEZING LINE
This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.
INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.
Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.
Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.
Snow has been falling for several hours in what may turn out to be 2019’s first significant nor’easter. Upwards of half a foot of snow is now expected throughout the entire New York City Metropolitan Area. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.
Over the past 24 hours, several computer models, such as the NAM3km and HDRPS (both detailed and accurate computer models) have zeroed in on this storm lasting from Sunday afternoon through Monday around 6 or 7 am ET. Both computer models have pointed to snow totals averaging about 5 to 9 inches in Manhattan, Long Island, New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.
While snow has been falling for some time now, roadways are only now beginning to become covered and particularly hazardous in some places. Other than up to several inches of snow on roadways by tomorrow morning, it is possible that because of warmer temperatures earlier Sunday, there may be small layers of ice beneath the snow. Although temperatures will warm to above freezing on Monday, rapid refreezing Monday afternoon may create black ice on roadways.
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories throughout the New York City Tri-State Area. Updated ice accumulation forecasts have indicated a much more significant level of ice accretion for locations to the north and west of the city, making for potentially dangerous roadway conditions Tuesday afternoon as well as setting up the possibility for isolated to potentially widespread power outages going into Tuesday night.
Plan on steady snow developing by mid-morning Tuesday, with the potential for snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour in the first couple hours of the storm. While the exact timing of the transition from snow to wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain, and snow) depends heavily on specific location, most areas – excluding Long Island, where the transition could occur more rapidly and sooner than elsewhere – will see this changeover around the early to mid-afternoon.
Roadways will become dangerous by early afternoon due to periods of heavy precipitation and ice accretion. Please avoid unnecessary travel during the worst of the storm, with extreme caution on both treated and untreated roadways due to ice, snow, and reduced visibility. Most locations should see conditions rapidly improve Wednesday as temperatures are expected to go above freezing.
2019’s first major winter weather event has now triggered Winter Storm Warnings throughout the NYC Metropolitan Area. Recent runs of short range computer models have indicated larger-than-expected snow accumulations north and west of the city, with some places potentially receiving upwards of 12 inches of snow along with up to a quarter of an inch of ice.
While more areas may see more snow than ice or rain, the potential still exists for upwards of a quarter of an inch of ice to accumulate by early Sunday morning. The threat of ice, along with heavy snow and wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph, may lead to downed trees and tree limbs as well as power outages come Sunday afternoon. Coupled with sub-zero temperatures Sunday night, the storm has become potentially serious, especially for those who do experience lapses in electricity.
Along with the threat for downed trees and power lines also comes the threat for dangerous road conditions. Roadways will begin deteriorating late Saturday afternoon and, due to the rapid refreezing of any liquid on the ground going into Sunday night, will remain potentially hazardous at least through Monday morning.
More updates will be posted as needed both here and on our Facebook page. Stay safe!
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.
While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.
Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are currently in effect for locations along the I-95 Corridor. While snow accumulations through Sunday morning will likely range from 3” to 6” across much of the NYC Metro Area, the possibility for greater snow totals does exist should the storm system shift to the west, as does the possibility for lower totals in the event that the storm shifts to the east.
As the center of low pressure continues to develop, snow has begun to fall across portions of southern New Jersey and is expected to impact our area starting sometime in the mid-morning Saturday. While snow totals will likely remain below the 10” mark, expect moderate snow from around noon to 8 pm Saturday with the potential for some bands of heavier snow around the mid-afternoon. Most roadways will begin to see light accumulations of snow within one to two hours of the first flakes, meaning that all roadways will become slippery by the afternoon and evening.
Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings have been issued for the entire I-95 Corridor from New York to Boston. Exactly 4 years ago, Winter Storm Nemo created the exact same situation. Winter Storm Nemo, pictured below in an NOAA Surface Analysis, dumped 40 inches of snow in parts of Connecticut, and while tomorrow’s winter storm (named ‘Niko’) will likely dump no more than a foot and a half, it certainly is expected to resemble the historic storm that took place 4 years ago.
Expect high winds and heavy snow lasting from late tonight until tomorrow afternoon to greatly reduce visibility and knock down some tree limbs and power lines. Many schools across the area will likely be closed tomorrow, as the storm will also greatly reduce the ability to travel. Due to the remaining uncertainty in the storm’s intensity as it passes the area, Weather 360 is forecasting snow totals to vary from 6 inches in locations on the immediate coast, to as much as 16 inches for locations not much further inland.
For information regarding watches, warnings, and advisories, visit weather.gov, and in the meantime, we’ll keep you posted.
A significant snowstorm expected to bring blizzard conditions and up to a foot of snow to portions of Virginia and the Southeast may bring up to several inches across the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast, prompting winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories for portions of Long Island and eastern Connecticut. The National Weather Service also forecasts light snow accumulation for much of the Metro Area, with areas of Long Island receiving as much as 6 to 8 inches of snow by tomorrow night.
Weather 360 forecasts up to 4 inches of snow for much of southwestern Connecticut, and a half foot or more of snow for much of Long Island. As the snow will start around midday, travel in the afternoon may become slick and at times there may be periods of low visibility.
Please consult The National Weather Service at weather.gov for more info.
THE TRACK FOR THIS BLIZZARD HAS SHIFTED NORTH. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ARE NOW UNDER BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
In locations across the New York City Metro Area, the snow has already started to accumulate. The National Weather Service is now calling for a foot or more in most of the Metro Area. Expect an additional foot or more of snow with some brief bursts of thunder snow throughout the day starting at 7 am.
The storm has the potential to create extremely dangerous road conditions at times today even in areas not specified under Blizzard Warnings.
There is the potential for widespread power outages across the Tri-State area.
Before making any decisions regarding the weather. Visit weather.gov.
A major winter storm is expected to impact the entire New York City Metro Area tonight into Sunday Morning.
Southern Connecticut Overview: Currently, Southern Fairfield and Southern New Haven Counties are under Winter Storm Warnings. Locations in southern portions of Northern Fairfield County can expect near-blizzard conditions, but due to less of a threat further north in the county, the National Weather Service has decided to keep the alert level at an advisory (likewise for Northern New Haven County). Expect wind gusts around 40 MPH with snow totals 6-15 inches.
Southeastern New York Overview: Blizzard conditions for the Greater New York City area along with Long Island. Winter Storm Warnings for locations just to the north (Westchester County), and continued Winter Storm Watches for locations just to the north of there. Expect wind gusts potentially reaching 50 MPH with snow totals ranging from 6 to 18 inches.
Northern New Jersey Overview: Winter Storm Warnings issued for Northwestern portions of this area. Blizzard Warnings closer to the coast. Expect snow totals ranging from 6 to 24 inches with wind gusts potentially reaching 60 MPH.