winter storm – Weather 360

Multi-Day Winter Weather Event Kicks Off Meteorological Winter

December 1, 2019December 1, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, Freezing Rain, Ice, Long Island, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Sleet, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather, Winter Weather Advisory, Wintry Mix, wintry weatherLeave a comment

11:30 am – Snow and mixed precipitation has begun to fall across the NYC Tri-State Area as a two-day winter storm moves into the Northeast. December 1 is considered the first day of ‘Meteorological Winter’ – a period of time that lasts until the end of February and is considered the coldest three month period in the Northern Hemisphere.

THE FREEZING LINE

This storm will be characterized by sharp precipitation boundaries over relatively short distances. The difference between coastal and inland locations, or even changes in elevation of only several hundred feet, will dictate both when and how much frozen precipitation will fall and accumulate.

INLAND LOCATIONS (Or above 400 ft elevation) – Winter Storm Warnings. The most inland locations will likely not experience any mixed precipitation at all. Snow accumulations in these areas may exceed one foot. For less inland locations currently under a winter storm warning, a mid-afternoon changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is expected today, with a refreeze and changeover back to snow expected around noon Monday. Among the several inches of snow possible, the threat exists for ice to accumulate on roadways, trees, and power lines. Travel will be significantly more difficult during periods of heavier precipitation this afternoon and evening. A refreeze as well as more snow tomorrow will further complicate travel. Exercise extreme caution on roadways and avoid unnecessary travel if possible.
COASTAL LOCATIONS (Generally less than 400 ft elevation) – Winter Weather Advisories or no winter weather alert. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will transition to all rain by mid-afternoon today. A transition back to frozen precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. Several inches of snow as well as some ice accumulation are possible. Exercise caution on slick roadways.

Due to the mixed-precipitation nature of this early December storm, any actual snow accumulation will depend on how long snow falls before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Total storm accumulations will likely be impacted by any changeover to rain.

Conditions may vary significantly over relatively short distances. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and exercise caution while outdoors and on the road.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

October 29, 2019November 12, 2019Posted in Weather 360, WinterTagged Climate, National Weather Service, Nor'easter, Weather360, Winter, Winter 2019 - 2020, winter storm, Winter WeatherLeave a comment

As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite — Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

First Accumulating Snow of Season Expected Thursday

November 13, 2018November 14, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged connecticut, First snow, Heavy Snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Nor'easter, snow, snow event, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A developing nor’easter is promising to bring the season’s first significant snowfall to the NYC tri-state area later this week.

This is the first Weather 360 forecast made with the aid of a new forecasting algorithm tailored to the NYC Metro Area. Updated as of 8 pm ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

The heaviest snowfall will likely be around or after sunset Thursday with the potential for some light icing around midnight. Though while the storm system may bring upwards of half a foot of snow or more to some locations by late Thursday night or early Friday morning, due to the warm air brought by the proximity of the center of the storm to the coast, come the morning commute on Friday most of it will be more slush than snow.

The potential for heavy snow to develop quickly Thursday afternoon over the NYC Metro Area.

As with most winter weather events this early in the season, slight changes in track can mean the difference between freezing and above freezing and rain and snow. However, due to the possibility for snow to accumulate within minutes on some surfaces, travel may become hazardous from mid-afternoon Thursday through late morning Friday.

Potential for Significant Nor’easter Soon

December 31, 2017Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Low Pressure, Nor'easter, Northeast, snow, Snow Storm, winter stormLeave a comment

A low pressure system is forecasted to develop off the coast of Florida this Tuesday, at which point it has the possibility to come close enough to the coast to impact the Northeast by Thursday.

ECMWF Forecast 12 31 17 — European Computer Model (ECMWF) run for Thursday, January 4, 2018, depicting a strong low pressure developing several hundred miles off the US East Coast. (Image courtesy of Weather.us)

As low temperatures correlate to higher yields of snow from the same amount of liquid precipitation, should the storm system track any closer to the coast, upwards of half a foot to a foot of snow or more could be possible. At this time it is still unknown as to whether or not the storm will come close enough to impact the NYC area, but the potential exists for a significant winter storm or blizzard come later this week.

First Winter Storm of Season Expected Saturday

December 8, 2017Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Heavy Snow, Moderate Snow, snow, winter storm, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather AdvisoryLeave a comment

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are currently in effect for locations along the I-95 Corridor. While snow accumulations through Sunday morning will likely range from 3” to 6” across much of the NYC Metro Area, the possibility for greater snow totals does exist should the storm system shift to the west, as does the possibility for lower totals in the event that the storm shifts to the east.

NAM3km Rain Snow Forecast December 9 2017 — The NAM 3km computer model run from Friday afternoon depicting heavier bands of snow developing across New England by 3 pm. Image from Tropicaltidbits

As the center of low pressure continues to develop, snow has begun to fall across portions of southern New Jersey and is expected to impact our area starting sometime in the mid-morning Saturday. While snow totals will likely remain below the 10” mark, expect moderate snow from around noon to 8 pm Saturday with the potential for some bands of heavier snow around the mid-afternoon. Most roadways will begin to see light accumulations of snow within one to two hours of the first flakes, meaning that all roadways will become slippery by the afternoon and evening.

Snow Accumulation 17-1.jpg — Weather 360 snow accumulation graphic for Saturday December 9, 2017. 3″-7″ can be expected across the NYC Metro Area.

Crippling Blizzard Expected Tuesday

March 12, 2017March 12, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 2 feet+, Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, Heavy Snow, Major Blizzard, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, nyc, NYC Metro Area, Power Outages, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches remain in effect for locations across the NYC area. Weather 360 is now forecasting that up to 2′ of snow is possible in locations situated mainly to the west and the north of the city, and that at least 6″ of snow will accumulate even in the event the storm does not make a “direct” hit.

Snow Accumulation 12 — Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Totals Forecasts update about every 6 hours ahead of storms. Currently, Weather 360 is calling for at least 6″, and at most up to 2′.

It is increasingly likely that blizzard conditions will be felt on Tuesday, as heavy wet snow combined with wind gusts approaching 45+ mph may make for white out conditions. Due to the wind and snow, expect power to go out in some areas and take appropriate precautions ahead of the storm. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We’ll continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here, and on our Facebook page.

Major Winter Storm Prompts Alerts in NYC Area

March 11, 2017January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Blizzard, Blizzard Watch, ECMWF, GFS, Major Snowstorm, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, snow, Winter, winter storm, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are in effect for the entire NYC area. The National Weather Service is currently calling for up to 18″ of snow in some locations, as more major computer models have continued to suggest a strong Nor’easter developing off the East Coast by Tuesday morning.

GFS ECMWF 3 11 17 3 15 17 BLIZZARD — The GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) computer models from this morning. In the most recent runs, both models have suggested an essentially identical storm that will come in close proximity to the Mid Atlantic/New England coast, putting it in an ideal position to dump massive amounts of precipitation on the area.

Weather 360 is estimating that maximum snow totals in the area may exceed 18″ should the storm remain close enough to the coast to bring its moisture inland, but far enough away to keep temperatures below the freezing line. Even in the event that the storm does not remain in the Nor’easter ‘Goldilocks Zone’, expect there to be at least 3-6″ of snow on the ground by Wednesday morning. For more information regarding the dangers this storm poses, consult the NWS at weather.gov. We will continue to post updates on the progress of this storm over the coming days both here, and on our Facebook page.

Up to 8″ of Snow Possible Tomorrow; Major Storm Potential Next Week

March 9, 2017March 10, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged 8" of snow, Mid Atlantic, New England, Nor'easter, winter storm, Winter Weather, Winter Weather AdvisoryLeave a comment

Over half a foot of snow is possible tomorrow across large swaths of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Starting around midnight tonight, snow associated with an incoming weak low pressure system will move into the NYC area. Most of the snow should move out of the area by noon, but not before dumping an estimated 4-8 inches of snow.

HRRR computer model total snowfall accumulation by 4 pm ET 3/10/17.

Expect roads to be slick and potentially covered by a layer of snow and potentially some ice during the morning commute.

Going into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a potentially major Nor’easter may bring up to 2 feet of snow to New England and the Mid Atlantic. However, as this storm system is still not yet developed, it is difficult to forecast this with great accuracy, but recent trends have indicated that the potential for a major storm is increasing, and in the meantime, we’ll keep you informed.

Wintry Mess Expected Tomorrow

February 11, 2017February 11, 2017Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Freezing Rain, Ice, Mid Atlantic, New England, New York City Weather Forecast, New York Metro Area, Sleet, snow, winter storm, wintry weatherLeave a comment

Only 2 days after the largest storm of the season, the Northeast is on the brink of yet another major winter weather event. In southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England, snow in the morning will likely transition to a wintry mix or rain by the afternoon, but further to the north, cooler conditions will allow for up to 2 feet of snow to accumulate in some areas.

The most significant differences in snow accumulation are expected to occur between locations further to the south and closer to the coast, and those slightly further to the north and inland. In the NYC Metro Area, up to a foot of snow, sleet, as well as some ice is possible in locations to the north of Westchester, whereas in coastal NJ, NY, and CT, only a few inches of snow is expected before the transition to more liquidy precipitation takes place.

Regardless of accumulation, expect weather conditions tomorrow to reduce visibility and hamper travel all day. Please be aware of the weather conditions at your current location as well as in your destination if you intend to travel. More safety related information can be found at http://www.weather.gov.

Winter Storm May Bring Snow to The Northeast

March 18, 2016Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged Boston Metro Area, Eastern Seaboard, forecasts, I-95 Corridor, Late-Season Snow, low temperatures, New York City Metro Area, Northeast, Road Hazards, snow, spring, Winter 2015-2016, winter storm, Winter Storm Watch, wintry weatherLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches for portions of Eastern New England. A potentially significant winter weather event is expected to impact the I-95 corridor from New Jersey to Maine starting at the end of the week. As this is a late-season (or early depending on how you look at it, early-season) snow event, it will likely bring a heavier, wetter snow along with some mixed precipitation.

Starting Sunday afternoon, snow will start accumulating mostly on uncovered dirt surfaces, before quickly moving onto grassy and paved surfaces as the ground cools overtime. Total accumulations will range from an inch or two, to nearly 10 inches in some spots, with more snow further to the east.

More on this event on our Winter Weather Center page