Tag: National Weather Service

Weather 360 at 5 Years: Winter 2019 – 2020

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As Hurricane Season 2019 is winding down and temperatures start to hit freezing, the time has come for some forecasts and announcements for Winter 2019 – 2020.

Winter Storm Nemo Satelite
Winter Storm ‘Nemo’ in February 2013 after it left near 40″ of snow in parts of Connecticut.

Climate-Based Forecast

Long-range climate computer models, including the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME are indicating a slightly warmer, somewhat wetter winter season for the Northeast.

High temperatures are often in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of December through February in the tri-state, with average lows in the 20s. This winter will, with a few exceptions, remain similar in trend and temperature.

There is one other, generally less well-known factor that contributes to Northeast winter weather, one that is especially vital in the development of intense Nor’easters: Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Once more, the CFS, the CanSIPS, and the NMME computer models are in agreement, with each model forecasting anomalously warm SSTs throughout the winter, particularly from January through March.

Warm water is an essential ingredient for the rapid intensification – the ‘bombing out’ – of Nor’easters often attributed to major winter weather events. A warmer than average ocean off the coast of the Mid Atlantic and New England can help contribute to these storms.

The National Weather Service – “Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

Click here to read the full National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Winter Outlook.

Weather 360 at 5 Years: What’s New?

Last year’s roll-out of a self-developed statistical and data-driven approach to winter storm forecasting offered Weather 360 the ability to create Tri-State-specific weather forecasts. This year, new updates are being finalized to offer greater insight into snow accumulations, with an experimental focus on roadways and pavement to aid in forecasting driving conditions.

Weather 360 will issue Winter Weather Forecasts both here and on our Facebook page as soon as the first flakes start to fall.

Thank you for being a part of the Weather 360 community and stay safe!

 

Severe Thunderstorm Potential in NYC Today

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Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon.  With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two).  In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area.  Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.

An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed.  It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development.  It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200.  Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.

Thunderstorms expected this coming weekend initiates a Level III Alert for the NYC Area

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At this time, a Level III Alert is in effect for our area.  This means there is a possible potential threat soon for our area.  This alert does have the potential to become a Level II Alert if conditions expected over the weekend continue to be expected, and if threatening conditions become imminent, there is the potential for a Level I, Most Urgent Emergency to replace the Level II Alert over the next 36 hours.  It is advised that those who may be affected by the potential threat be alert and aware of upcoming forecasts and advise given by your local Emergency Management Office and your local Weather Service Office.  According to the National Weather Service in New York, along with some computer generated models, there is the potential for thunderstorms to move into this area over the weekend.  For more information, view the latest post here at weather360.net, or one of our latest Weather Broadcasts at our Weather 360 YouTube channel.  For emergency information, visit weather.gov or your local NWS’s page for tips and forecasts.

Severe thunderstorms could produce life-threatening conditions, SOON

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In the NYC Metro Area especially, in a couple of hours the potential for severe, and potentially life threatening conditions will come into play.  If you have not already noticed or have not yet been outdoors, the temperatures  have begun to cool and wind speeds have also begun to pick up ahead of the storm.

What will these severe storms include?

First of all, a severe storm normally needs to have the following to be classified as a severe storm; hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain (for more, go to our Terms to Know page), which happens to be the exact components of the storms expected to line up and sweep through nearly all 31 counties in the NYC Metro Area.

Wait a second, most of those components aren’t deadly, right?

Well not exactly, because thinking about the effects of hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, you may come to realize that hail can damage windows, vehicles, and cause serious injury, gusty winds can knock down trees and power lines, lightning can electrocute items and people, and last, but now least, heavy rains can create flash flooding. So know that you know some of the effects of the components that create a severe thunderstorm, you will hopefully know how to properly protect yourself and you property from one.

Be on the lookout for any severe thunderstorm watches or warnings, and stay safe!

Thunderstorms are coming!

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Over the next several hours thunderstorms will begin to develop in the New York City metro area.  Some of these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds,  so please if you are caught in a severe storm take cover immediately to avoid any injury.  Today there’s also the potential for flash flooding across all low lying areas and in areas near rivers or streams.  Later today there’s also the potential for gusty winds to cause some downed trees and power outages.  Be aware that at almost any time the National Weather Service may issue an advisory, a watch, or a warning.

Hurricane Season 2015

Although most of the major sources for forecasting the next hurricane season have been predicting a quiet, below average hurricane season, Weather 360 would like to remind everyone that it only takes one hurricane landfall to make a big difference across a wide area that could be anywhere on the Atlantic Basin coast from Maine to Texas.

Stay safe!

Watch out Northeast, there’s a storm brewing

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Over the next one or two weeks there is the possibility for a lot, and we mean a lot of rain and thunderstorms to arrive in the Northeast.

First, we would like to talk about the current rain and thunderstorms in the parts of the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania and New York.  The current storms rolling across the two Northeast states are bringing with them some lightning, hail, and localized flooding.  These same storms are expected to arrive in most of New England and eastern parts of the Mid Atlantic by tomorrow night, less severe, but will still bring a lot of rain to these areas.  Watch out for some flooded roadways, including and especially underpasses and some tunnels with poor drainage. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH THESE ROADWAYS IF THEY ARE FLOODED, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!

So to wrap it all up, be careful, and stay safe!

The Latest: Spring snow could cause travel hazards tomorrow, but then…

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Tomorrow some spring snow showers are expected to move through northern portions of the Northeast United States.  This could create some slippery roadways across areas affected by the snow and wintry mix.

The Latest:  Next several day temperature forecast

Over the next several days warmer and more mild temperatures will briefly invade the Mid Atlantic and New England, before cooler temperatures take over once more.  This may mean that any crops that were supposed to be planted in early April may have to have their planting dates delayed (anyways, most small gardens in New England still are covered with snow.)  Be prepared for some temperature fluctuations over the next several days, bringing with it the possibility of late night and morning snow or wintry mix.

The Latest:  When will all the snow melt!

As the snow line continues to recede across the Northeast and all of the United States, temperatures continue to rise steadily (well, at least for the most part…)

The question is though, how long until the Northeast for the most part is free of snow?

At the moment, most of the Mid Atlantic is snow free, but just north of New York City, according the National Snow Analyses, the snow depth is very close to zero, steadily rising as you look further north.  Again, back to the question, how long until it all melts?  In southern parts of New England, the snow should be mostly if not totally gone by the end of the week after next (not the snow in piles.)  In the rest of New England, most of the snow will likely be gone completely sometime later in April or in very early May.  Be aware of the potential for some black ice on roadways, and stay safe!

The Latest: Hurricane Season 2015 Analysis

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Over the past several decades, data has been collected about hurricane forecasts to see how they have changed over the years.  As most of you may have guessed, in the Atlantic Basin and around the world Hurricane Forecasting errors over the past decades have decreased significantly.

The Latest:  2015 Hurricane Season Analysis

Due to the sharp decrease in forecasting errors (for hurricanes) over the past several decades, it is now clearer to forecast hurricane seasons well in advance with more accuracy than ever.   First off, Hurricane Season 2015 is expected to at or near average.  This may change though if there is a stronger El Nino to occur, but at the moment, the El Nino is relatively weak.  The odds of a tropical disturbance impacting the Mid Atlantic or New England coastline may be slightly elevated, but is very different in terms of percentage wise than average.  We will keep you updated as more information comes out.

The Latest: Warm temperatures, then cold temperatures again?

As spring sets in, winter is preparing to make it’s possibly final move on the Northeast US.  The possibility of another dip in the Arctic Jet Stream is steadily increasing.  So as previously mentioned, don’t put away the winter gear yet.

The Latest: Weather 360 on the end of winter and the beginning of Hurricane Season 2015

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As winter for the Northeast begins to wind down and warm and cold temperatures fight a raging war in which, obviously, the cold must surrender in, Hurricane Season 2015 approaches. The preliminary estimates in terms of a below average, an average, or an above average season, are suggesting that there will be a close to average season with a very equal chance of the season being weighed towards either below or above average.  Those who are waiting for spring, Weather 360 can promise you that it will come eventually, no matter how unusual the weather may be.

As always, be careful and stay safe!

The Latest: On Weather 360

For anyone wondering where and what exactly Weather 360 covers keep reading.

Area.   During Hurricane Season, Weather 360 covers the entire tropical Atlantic Basin and will provide any watches or warnings set out by the NHC and explain what it means.  During winter though, Weather 360 mainly covers all major storms in the Northeast US only.

Rain is on it’s way!

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A fairly large rain event is expected to arrive in the Northeast around Thursday, bringing with it the possibility of a few inches of rain from Maine to Pennsylvania. With the rain, there will be some very warm temperatures relative to what the Northeast has experienced over the past several months, causing even more rapid snow melt of what ever is left all over the Northeast.  In some areas further North, such as the mountains in northern Vermont and New Hampshire there is the possibility of some snow and freezing precipitation to mix in at times.  Now would be a good time to bring out your rain boots, the Northeast’s spring is well on it’s way to overcome the wrath of winter.

Stay safe!