High Winds – Weather 360

Hurricane Dorian: What You Need to Know

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019Posted in Major Storm, summer, Tropical Cyclones, Weather 360Tagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Catastrophe, Dangerous conditions, flooding, Florida, Georgia, High Winds, Hurricane, Hurricane Dorian, hurricane season, Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Major Hurricane, nhc, North Carolina, Potential for Significant Damage, South Carolina, Storm SurgeLeave a comment

Category 4 Major Hurricane Dorian is barreling towards the US East Coast. The storm, which has rapidly intensified over the past several hours, is expected to reach the Bahamas by Sunday afternoon.

What you need to know:

The Saffir-Simpson Scale:
Category 5: 157+ mph - Catastrophic Damage
Category 4: 130-156 mph - Catastrophic Damage
Category 3: 111 - 129 mph - Devastating Damage
Category 2: 96 - 110 mph - Extensive Damage
Category 1: 74 - 95 mph - Some Damage

As of the evening of August 30, 2019, Hurricane Dorian is a category 4 major hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph and a central pressure of 950 millibars.

The current National Hurricane Center forecast cone keeps Florida in the cross-hairs. This afternoon, computer model guidance shifted the projected storm path eastward, placing locations from Miami to as far north as South Carolina under the threat of winds well in excess of 100 mph, excessive rainfall, and significant storm surge.

NHC Hurricane Dorian.png — The National Hurricane Center’s official track guidance as of 8 PM EDT on August 30, 2019. Hurricane Warnings (red) and Hurricane Watches (pink) have been issued for the Bahamas. This graphic depicts the potential storm center paths – not the potential extent of storm impacts.

The 8 PM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center has a category 4 storm making landfall near Port Saint Lucie, Florida. While there continues to exist uncertainty in the track of this storm, should this occur, storm surge well in excess of 7-11+ feet is possible on the coast of central eastern Florida, with top sustained winds potentially exceeding 130 – 140 mph in a radius reaching tens of miles from the center of the storm.

Who in the United States mainland will bear the brunt of this storm is still unknown. The storm will make a turn northward as it is picked up by a ridge of high pressure situated over the western Atlantic. When this storm makes its turn northward is still uncertain.

It is vital that everyone on the US East Coast from Miami to South Carolina – and even further north – be prepared to act quickly ahead of this storm.

Please prepare now and stay updated on local guidance and evacuation information from the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov), the National Weather Service (weather.gov), and your local emergency management office.

Weather360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm both here and on our Facebook page.

Be prepared and stay safe!

Far-Reaching Winter Storm Expected to Bring Heavy Snow, Sleet, Ice, and Rain

January 18, 2019January 19, 2019Posted in Major Storm, WinterTagged >12" snow, Extreme Cold, Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Ice, Power Outages, Road Hazards, Sleet, Widespread Power Outages, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Storm WatchLeave a comment

2019’s first major winter weather event has now triggered Winter Storm Warnings throughout the NYC Metropolitan Area. Recent runs of short range computer models have indicated larger-than-expected snow accumulations north and west of the city, with some places potentially receiving upwards of 12 inches of snow along with up to a quarter of an inch of ice.

snow accumulation 19 - 1 18 — The official Weather 360 Tri-State-wide snow total forecast as of 6:00 pm ET January 18, 2019. As per usual in storms involving ice and wintry mix, the greatest snow totals are most likely to occur in interior locations of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut to the north and west of the city.

While more areas may see more snow than ice or rain, the potential still exists for upwards of a quarter of an inch of ice to accumulate by early Sunday morning. The threat of ice, along with heavy snow and wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph, may lead to downed trees and tree limbs as well as power outages come Sunday afternoon. Coupled with sub-zero temperatures Sunday night, the storm has become potentially serious, especially for those who do experience lapses in electricity.

4 Dangerous.JPG — The official Weather 360 roadway forecast, valid from sundown Saturday afternoon until Monday morning. Exact roadway conditions will be heavily dependent on location, but expect conditions to be especially hazardous during the time frame indicated above. Exercise extreme caution on roadways during and after the storm.

Along with the threat for downed trees and power lines also comes the threat for dangerous road conditions. Roadways will begin deteriorating late Saturday afternoon and, due to the rapid refreezing of any liquid on the ground going into Sunday night, will remain potentially hazardous at least through Monday morning.

More updates will be posted as needed both here and on our Facebook page. Stay safe!

Uncertainty Remains as Major Weekend Storm Nears

January 16, 2019Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Extreme Cold, Freezing Rain, GFS, High Winds, Ice, Mid Atlantic, NAM, New England, New York City, New York Metro Area, Power Outages, rain, Sleet, snow, Snow StormLeave a comment

Aside from several inches in November, it has been ten months since there has been significant snowfall seen in the New York City Metropolitan Area. This is now expected to change as soon as this weekend, as a significant winter weather event has begun to move east.

gfsfv3 1 16 19 102hr mslp — The evening run of the FV3 GFS computer model on January 16, 2019. Any slight shift to the east or south with this storm could mean extremely high snow totals closer to, or even south of, I-95. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Snow will quickly develop and intensify as it moves into the Tri-State Area late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, bringing with it rapid accumulations on most surfaces. However, the position of the storm will dictate if and when many locations will see a changeover to sleet, ice, or rain.

At the moment, it appears that locations north of the city and I-95 will experience this transition as early as 9 am Sunday, allowing for potentially significant ice accretions on many surfaces by noon Sunday.

Whether or not the precipitation remains frozen or becomes rain during the day, snow and ice will redevelop by the afternoon as temperatures drop and winds increase Sunday night. It is also important to note that, regardless of the direct impacts of the storm, temperatures will fall to near below zero throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England by early Monday morning. This rapid refreezing could mean any liquid precipitation that falls may become ice on roads, trees, and power lines quickly after the storm exits the area.

nam12km 1 16 19 84hr — The evening run of the NAM 12km computer model on January 16, 2019. This particular run suggests a delayed transition from snow to ice or rain around NYC, meaning snow accumulations could run much higher than currently expected. (Image courtesy tropicaltidbits.com)

Due to the uncertain nature of the this storm, Weather 360 is currently forecasting anywhere between 4 and 12+ inches north of I-95, with anywhere between 3 and 8+ inches to its east and south. Forecasts will be refined in the coming days as the center of the storm develops, but for now, be prepared for a storm that could knock out power, make travel dangerous for an extended period of time, and dump a significant amount of snow, sleet, ice, and rain.

Largest Winter Storm of Season Takes Aim at NYC Tri-State

March 7, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged >12" snow, Blizzard, Blizzard-Like Conditions, connecticut, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Low Pressure, Major Snowstorm, New Jersey, new york, New York City, Nor'easter, Northeast, NYC Metro Area, Power Outages, snow, Winter Storm WarningLeave a comment

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

Snow Accumulation 18-3 — Weather 360 NYC Tri-State 72 Hour Snowfall Forecast as of 9:30 AM today.

While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.

Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.

Strong Nor’easter to Develop Friday

February 28, 2018February 28, 2018Posted in Major Storm, Weather 360, WinterTagged Damaging Winds, Dangerous conditions, heavy rain, Heavy Snow, High Winds, Low Pressure, Major Storm, Nor'easter, snow, Snow Storm, Strong StormsLeave a comment

A strong Nor’easter is expected to develop from a center of low pressure that will move from the Midwest over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy precipitation will likely create power outages and hazardous travel on Friday.

NAM Radar Friday March 2 2018 Noon — NAM 3km computer model display of potential weather conditions at noon on Friday. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

While it is certain that a Nor’easter will strengthen rapidly over the Mid Atlantic coast, the type of precipitation received in the NYC Metropolitan Area will depend on its proximity to the coast. As of this afternoon, the ECMWF (European) and the NAM (North American) computer models are forecasting enough cold air to transition the heavy precipitation into snow by 10 am or noon Friday. Snow totals in locations where the precipitation does change over to snow could see snow totals exceeding half a foot to over a foot of snow by Saturday morning.

Snow Accumulation 18-2 — Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Total Forecast Graphic as of 4:00 PM ET 2/28/2018.

Hybrid Storm Takes Aim on Northeast

October 29, 2017Posted in Major Storm, severe weather, Tropical CyclonesTagged Dangerous conditions, flooding, Halloween Snowstorm Anniversary, High Winds, Hurricane Sandy Anniversary, Hybrid Storm, Major Storm, Mid Atlantic, Northeast, Power Outages, Rapid Strengthening, Superstorm, Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm Philippe, United States, Widespread Power OutagesLeave a comment

Tropical Storm Philippe has merged with a cold front off the coast of Delaware. The new center of low pressure is rapidly intensifying and continuing to push tropical moisture northwards. The core of the storm, as forecasted by nearly all computer models over the past 24 hours, is developing rapidly and, once onshore, is expected to bring with it wind gusts that could reach hurricane force. Today also happens to be the five year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, and the six year anniversary of the Halloween Snowstorm of 2011. This storm, although not as strong as either of these two infamous events, shares multiple, peculiar characteristics with both storms, including but not limited to the ‘negative dip’ in the jet stream, an atmospheric condition responsible for Sandy’s ‘sharp left turn’ into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as its combining with another storm system to create a hybrid-superstorm.

Hybrid Storm 10 29 17 625 PM Radar Image.gif — Northeast US Radar as of 6:25 PM Eastern Time.

The National Weather Service has issued a high wind warning for the entire NYC Metro Area, meaning that high winds will likely cause widespread power outages and will cause fallen items to block roadways. A flood warning is also in effect for the area, meaning that conditions are favorable for roadways and other low-lying locations to flood due to the excessive amount of rainfall. If travel is necessary, exercise extreme caution going into tonight and into tomorrow.

For more information, visit The National Weather Service at www.weather.gov.

Strong Line of Thunderstorms Expected Monday Evening

June 18, 2017Posted in Major Storm, severe weatherTagged Frequent Lightning, hail, High Winds, NYC Metro Area, severe weather, Severe Weather Devlopment, tornadoLeave a comment

A cold front moving in from the plains is expected to arrive in our area tomorrow evening. The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM computer model), forecasts a line of thunderstorms to develop over central Pennsylvania and New York before making its way over the NYC Tri-State by 8 pm ET.

The current NAM computer model run for 7 pm ET Monday 6/19 (Image by TropicalTidbits)

Weather360 is forecasting frequent lightning, hail, high winds, and potentially a few tornadoes in these storms tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts an ‘Elevated Risk’ for severe weather tomorrow, meaning that strong storms are likely with the potential for isolated tornadoes.

Severe Weather 3b — Weather360’s Sunday afternoon forecast for Monday Evening, updated information can be found on our ‘Weather Outlook’ page.

Already today the main parameters for severe storm development (CAPE, shear, helicity, and ML LCL) are already favorable for strong thunderstorms. Please have access to a cellphone, television, or radio tomorrow in the event that the National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm, flash flood, or tornado warning. Tornadoes can and do occur in this area of the country, please take shelter immediately should a warning be issued for your area.

Hermine Tracks East, Remains a Threat to Tri-State

September 4, 2016September 4, 2016Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged heavy rain, High Waves, High Winds, Hurricane Hermine, Labor Day Forecast, Labor Day Weekend, Mid Atlantic, New England, New England Coastline, Northeast, NYC Metro Area, Rip Currents, Tri State Forecast, Tropical Storm HermineLeave a comment

Hermine continued its east-northeastward track overnight, bringing it to the eastern side of the NHC’s ‘cone of uncertainty’. Although the effects from Hermine along the coast will be less significant for large swaths of The Mid Atlantic and southwestern New England, Hermine still poses a threat to life and property.

Labor Day Weekend is normally a time when people go to the beaches to celebrate the unofficial end of summer, but rip currents, high waves, and high winds from Atlantic City to Boston may put a damper on your plans. Along with this, expect there to be wind gusts high enough to bring down some large branches and trees, especially on Monday, bringing up the potential for some spotty power outages.

For more information on Hermine, visit our Tropical Cyclones page and check for official information at hurricanes.gov and weather.gov.

Tropical Storm Warnings For Tri-State Area

September 3, 2016September 3, 2016Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged heavy rain, High Winds, Hurricane Hermine, Northeast, Storm Surge Potential, Storm Surge Threat, Storm Surge Warnings, Storm Surge Watches, Tropical Storm Hermine, Tropical Storm WarningsLeave a comment

The National Weather Service in Upton, New York has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for locations across The Tri-State Area. Storm Surge Watches and Warnings are also in effect.

Sustained winds in excess of 40-60 MPH are possible with this storm from New Jersey to Connecticut, creating the potential for widespread power outages, blocked roads, and high waves. The National Hurricane Center is expecting a storm surge of anywhere between 1 and 8 feet depending on the location, especially on the south facing shores of Long Island. Now is the time to act! Make sure you have a 3 day supply of food and water as well as flashlights, a weather radio, and portable batteries if at all possible. If evacuations are ordered for your area, do not hesitate to leave. The potential track for this storm remains somewhat uncertain, so please stay informed over the following several days. Official information may be found at hurricanes.gov (NHC), and at weather.gov (NWS).

Potential for Severe Weather in NYC Today

July 7, 2016August 7, 2016Posted in Major Storm, severe weatherTagged 2016, Conducive for Severe Weather Development, Frequent Lightning, hail, heavy rain, High Winds, Hudson Valley, July, lightning, New York City Metro Area, NYC Weather, rain, severe storms, severe weather, Severe Weather Devlopment, Severe Weather in NYC, Severe Weather Threat, Thunderstorms, Weather360Leave a comment

Starting this afternoon, the potential for Severe Weather exists across the New York City Metropolitan Area. The first storms will begin to appear over the western portions of the Metro Area in the early afternoon, before becoming more numerous and greater in size by the early evening. At the moment, it is beginning to appear that there will be at least one line of storms that will form over The Hudson Valley around 3:00-5:00 PM EST.

It will be important to note that Weather360 is increasing the threat for Severe Weather today to 60% across the Metro Area, with the threat for isolated spin-ups and tornadoes at 22%. The primary threat today will be the threat for small hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. It is advisable to keep a weather radio nearby and to keep a lookout for storms in your area.

For more information, visit our YouTube Channel here, and in the event of an emergency, be sure to heed all advice distributed and issued by The National Weather Service.