Thought it was over? Well, guess again…
Over the past hour and a half, a line of thunderstorms brought periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning to mostly northern portions of the Tri-State Area. Although this line of storms may have cooled things down a bit, there is yet another, larger line of thunderstorms that has the potential to bring even more severe weather to the Metro Area later on in the evening. With respect to the first line of storms, although they may not have gotten their act quite together when it comes to supercell development, they still packed a punch able to take down large branches, leaves, and lower visibility to less than a mile in some locations temporarily.
The line of storms that is expected to move into the Metro Area tonight will have even more ingredients necessary for Severe Weather Development in their favor. After the first line of storms earlier, the Mixed Layered CAPE, instead of dropping off, skyrocketed from 700-1,100 joules per kilogram, to 1,500-2,000 joules per kilogram. Along with this, there has been a notable increase in Effective Helicity as well as Effective Shear, indicating that stronger and more developed storms are on the way.
The most important thing to remember today is that the storms are not over, and that it will be important to have access to NOAA Weather Alerts via an NOAA Weather Alerts Radio or via Cellular Phone so you can stay informed if Severe Weather hits.
Starting this afternoon, the potential for Severe Weather exists across the New York City Metropolitan Area. The first storms will begin to appear over the western portions of the Metro Area in the early afternoon, before becoming more numerous and greater in size by the early evening. At the moment, it is beginning to appear that there will be at least one line of storms that will form over The Hudson Valley around 3:00-5:00 PM EST.
It will be important to note that Weather360 is increasing the threat for Severe Weather today to 60% across the Metro Area, with the threat for isolated spin-ups and tornadoes at 22%. The primary threat today will be the threat for small hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. It is advisable to keep a weather radio nearby and to keep a lookout for storms in your area.
For more information, visit our YouTube Channel here, and in the event of an emergency, be sure to heed all advice distributed and issued by The National Weather Service.
Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon. With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two). In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area. Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.
An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed. It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development. It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200. Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.
Over the next several hours, more lines of potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to line up across portions of the Upper Midwest, bringing hail, strong winds, and some isolated tornadoes. As of 2:30 CDT, lines of heavy rain and thunderstorms are developing over portions of Southern Iowa, and are expected to make their way east into Illinois, parts of Wisconsin, and parts of Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has most of Western Illinois under an ‘enhanced risk’, meaning that the potential for multiple severe storms does exist, and that the threat of tornadoes is elevated as well.
More on this event on our Severe Weather Center page
Starting tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to bring heavy rains, high winds, hail, and potentially some tornadoes from Eastern Oklahoma to Alabama. This same storm system is expected to move across the country and will eventually bring some rain to the East Coast as well.
More on this outbreak on our Severe Weather Center page.
As of 2/24/2016 at 8:00 PM EST
ALERT: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 2:00 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE NYC METRO AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AREA.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact the area later tonight. Moderate to heavy rain has already begun to fall across some portions of the area. By 11:45 PM tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to envelop the area, potentially bringing hail, strong winds, lighting, flooding, and even some tornadoes along with it.
Look out for emergency weather warnings that the NWS may issue over the following several hours.
Along with a stream of Weather Broadcasts on our YouTube channel, Weather 360, we would also like to release and test a 3-Level Alert System, which we have abbreviated 3.A.S (not purposely based on E.A.S, which is the NWS’ Emergency Alert System), in which Weather 360 outlines threats on a 3 leveled system that places different types of alert at either of the following;
Level I: Most Urgent
Level II: Elevated Alert
Level III: Alert
Guidelines for the Alert System
Level I situations: This event must be within the next 24 hours and may either have a watch or warning from the NWS associated with it or is expected to have a watch or warning shortly. This event is expected to pose a potential threat to an area and is classified as Most Urgent. In these situations it is always best to gather last-minute supplies for the storm.
Level II situations: This event must be within the next 48 hours and could pose a potential threat to an area. Depending on the event, a watch may already be issued for this area. If your area is given a Level II Elevated Alert, the time is now to be on your way to preparation for the potential threat.
Level III situations: This event must be within the next 72 hours and has the possibility to pose a potential threat. Depending on the event, a watch may already be issued for this area. If your area is under a Level III threat, now is the time to start preparation for the potential threat.
As of 00 UTC, 8 PM EDT: Thunderstorms moving to the southeast from western portions of Virginia are maintaining enough strength to produce storms capable of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain as to classify them as severe. Thunderstorms developing in upper portions of the Midwest have the potential to produce tornadoes and more severe weather as night approaches, these thunderstorms are all moving to the east-southeast.
The Tropics: Newly formed Tropical Storm Claudette has maximum sustained winds of about 50 MPH and is moving to the Northeast off of the Mid Atlantic coast to the southeast of Nantucket. The storm is expected to make landfall near Nova Scotia as a Tropical Depression with some winds and rains, along with rip currents.
Tomorrow’s forecast: Thunderstorms developing in the Midwest will have moved far enough east to begin to affect locations in and around NYC and other locations along the I-95 Corridor. With a high temperature hovering around the mid 80’s and clouds moving in early on in the day, the heat index is likely to be lower than that of yesterday, meaning that temperatures will not feel as hot as they did earlier today. Later on tomorrow, more showers will start to move in and the potential for thunderstorms, some occasionally severe, increases.
For more information on weather across the United States, the Tropics, and more, watch our latest YouTube video as the channel Weather 360, and to start the discussion, visit us and post on our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/weather360.net
Starting early this evening severe thunderstorms moving in from Pennsylvania and the Midwest into our area. For locations in and around the city thunderstorms will arrive this evening and potentially cause some severe thunderstorms capable of producing some damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, frequent lightning, and potentially some isolated tornadoes. For locations in and around the city, the severe side of these storms will likely move out by very early tomorrow morning and will begin to taper off as some rain.
Already areas from Ohio to the Cape are under Flash Flood Watches, meaning when the rain moves in later today there will be the potential, much like a few days ago, for some flash floods to occur. If the National Weather Service does think that there is the potential for flash floods imminently over a specific area, they will issue a Flash Flood Warning, in which all weather radios and cellular devices in the specified area will start sounding an alarm to warn the public of the danger (likewise in the event of a tornado). Remember to turn around if you see standing or moving water, the apparent depth of the water may be different from the true depth of the water.
In the event of an alarm sounding in your area whether it be from a cell phone or from a radio, heed ANY AND ALL advice the message offers to ensure safety today and tonight.
Remember also to check the National Weather Service’s website (weather.gov or noaa.gov) if you believe there may be a severe threat either near or at your location over a short period of time.
ALERT: OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS, A VERY INTENSE AND SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NYC AREA, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES.
An enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes does exist today now for the NYC Metro Area, this means there is an elevated likelihood, or enhanced likelihood of 1-2 inch in diameter hail, frequent lightning, and a few potential tornadoes. The enhanced risk set out by the SPC (spc.noaa.gov), also advises that due to an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, that everyone keeps an eye to the sky and to any watches or warnings that are set out by the NWS/NOAA. Here at Weather 360 we advise this as well, but also that you do NOT ignore watches or warnings and common sense, such as “going indoors as thunder roars”, or to take over immediately if there is a potential threat to life due to a weather event.
Please stay tuned to Weather 360, but remember to keep an eye to the sky and to check the NWS periodically for any new watches or warnings that may regard you personally.