Peak Activity: The Tropical Atlantic Heats Up

September 19, 2019 – Category 1 Hurricane Jerry is the latest addition to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook this evening. The 90 mph storm is moving to the west-northwest and threatens the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect, as well as Bermuda, which is still experiencing rough waters from the once Major Hurricane Humberto.

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Hurricane Jerry, a relatively small storm as of the evening of September 19, poses a threat for the northern Leeward Islands as well as Bermuda over the next seven days.

Further to the west, the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda continues to wreak havoc in Texas – where upwards of 40″ of rain have now fallen to the east of Houston. Large swaths of southeastern Texas, which were also slammed by the historic rainfall from Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are under Flash Flood and Flood Warnings.

The Rest of the Atlantic

  • Now Category 2 Hurricane Humberto continues to move to the north and east away from Bermuda with winds in excess of 105 mph.
  • Two areas with low probability of development over the next five days are moving into and through the Caribbean Sea.
  • A disturbance moving off the Africa has a 50% chance at developing into a Tropical Depression over the next five days. The most immediate effects of this potential storm could be felt in the Cape Verde islands.

For more information regarding the impacts of Imelda, please visit http://www.weather.gov. For more information regarding the progress of Hurricanes Jerry and Humberto, as well as the three noted areas of potential development, please visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

More updates both here and on our Facebook page as conditions warrant.

Stay safe!

Strong Nor’easter to Develop Friday

A strong Nor’easter is expected to develop from a center of low pressure that will move from the Midwest over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy precipitation will likely create power outages and hazardous travel on Friday.

NAM Radar Friday March 2 2018 Noon
NAM 3km computer model display of potential weather conditions at noon on Friday. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

While it is certain that a Nor’easter will strengthen rapidly over the Mid Atlantic coast, the type of precipitation received in the NYC Metropolitan Area will depend on its proximity to the coast. As of this afternoon, the ECMWF (European) and the NAM (North American) computer models are forecasting enough cold air to transition the heavy precipitation into snow by 10 am or noon Friday. Snow totals in locations where the precipitation does change over to snow could see snow totals exceeding half a foot to over a foot of snow by Saturday morning.

Snow Accumulation 18-2
Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Total Forecast Graphic as of 4:00 PM ET 2/28/2018.

 

Hermine Tracks East, Remains a Threat to Tri-State

Hermine continued its east-northeastward track overnight, bringing it to the eastern side of the NHC’s ‘cone of uncertainty’.  Although the effects from Hermine along the coast will be less significant for large swaths of The Mid Atlantic and southwestern New England, Hermine still poses a threat to life and property.

Labor Day Weekend is normally a time when people go to the beaches to celebrate the unofficial end of summer, but rip currents, high waves, and high winds from Atlantic City to Boston may put a damper on your plans. Along with this, expect there to be wind gusts high enough to bring down some large branches and trees, especially on Monday, bringing up the potential for some spotty power outages.

For more information on Hermine, visit our Tropical Cyclones page and check for official information at hurricanes.gov and weather.gov.

Tropical Storm Warnings For Tri-State Area

The National Weather Service in Upton, New York has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for locations across The Tri-State Area. Storm Surge Watches and Warnings are also in effect.nhc hermine post tropical ts warnings.gif

Sustained winds in excess of 40-60 MPH are possible with this storm from New Jersey to Connecticut, creating the potential for widespread power outages, blocked roads, and high waves. The National Hurricane Center is expecting a storm surge of anywhere between 1 and 8 feet depending on the location, especially on the south facing shores of Long Island. Now is the time to act! Make sure you have a 3 day supply of food and water as well as flashlights, a weather radio, and portable batteries if at all possible. If evacuations are ordered for your area, do not hesitate to leave. The potential track for this storm remains somewhat uncertain, so please stay informed over the following several days. Official information may be found at hurricanes.gov (NHC), and at weather.gov (NWS).

Potential for Severe Weather in NYC Today

Starting this afternoon, the potential for Severe Weather exists across the New York City Metropolitan Area.  The first storms will begin to appear over the western portions of the Metro Area in the early afternoon, before becoming more numerous and greater in size by the early evening.  At the moment, it is beginning to appear that there will be at least one line of storms that will form over The Hudson Valley around 3:00-5:00 PM EST.

It will be important to note that Weather360 is increasing the threat for Severe Weather today to 60% across the Metro Area, with the threat for isolated spin-ups and tornadoes at 22%.  The primary threat today will be the threat for small hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.  It is advisable to keep a weather radio nearby and to keep a lookout for storms in your area.

For more information, visit our YouTube Channel here, and in the event of an emergency, be sure to heed all advice distributed and issued by The National Weather Service.

Severe Storms to Grip Southern Plains

Starting tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to bring heavy rains, high winds,  hail, and potentially some tornadoes from Eastern Oklahoma to Alabama. This same storm system is expected to move across the country and will eventually bring some rain to the East Coast as well.

More on this outbreak on our Severe Weather Center page.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms sweeping across the country come closer to the Atlantic

As of 00 UTC, 8 PM EDT:  Thunderstorms moving to the southeast from western portions of Virginia are maintaining enough strength to produce storms capable of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain as to classify them as severe. Thunderstorms developing in upper portions of the Midwest have the potential to produce tornadoes and more severe weather as night approaches, these thunderstorms are all moving to the east-southeast.

The Tropics:  Newly formed Tropical Storm Claudette has maximum sustained winds of about 50 MPH and is moving to the Northeast off of the Mid Atlantic coast to the southeast of Nantucket.  The storm is expected to make landfall near Nova Scotia as a Tropical Depression with some winds and rains, along with rip currents.

Tomorrow’s forecast: Thunderstorms developing in the Midwest will have moved far enough east to begin to affect locations in and around NYC and other locations along the  I-95 Corridor.  With a high temperature hovering around the mid 80’s and clouds moving in early on in the day, the heat index is likely to be lower than that of yesterday, meaning that temperatures will not feel as hot as they did earlier today.  Later on tomorrow, more showers will start to move in and the potential for thunderstorms, some occasionally severe, increases.

For more information on weather across the United States, the Tropics, and more, watch our latest YouTube video as the channel Weather 360, and to start the discussion, visit us and post on our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/weather360.net