A cold front moving in from the plains is expected to arrive in our area tomorrow evening. The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM computer model), forecasts a line of thunderstorms to develop over central Pennsylvania and New York before making its way over the NYC Tri-State by 8 pm ET.
Weather360 is forecasting frequent lightning, hail, high winds, and potentially a few tornadoes in these storms tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts an ‘Elevated Risk’ for severe weather tomorrow, meaning that strong storms are likely with the potential for isolated tornadoes.
Already today the main parameters for severe storm development (CAPE, shear, helicity, and ML LCL) are already favorable for strong thunderstorms. Please have access to a cellphone, television, or radio tomorrow in the event that the National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm, flash flood, or tornado warning. Tornadoes can and do occur in this area of the country, please take shelter immediately should a warning be issued for your area.
Starting this afternoon, the potential for Severe Weather exists across the New York City Metropolitan Area. The first storms will begin to appear over the western portions of the Metro Area in the early afternoon, before becoming more numerous and greater in size by the early evening. At the moment, it is beginning to appear that there will be at least one line of storms that will form over The Hudson Valley around 3:00-5:00 PM EST.
It will be important to note that Weather360 is increasing the threat for Severe Weather today to 60% across the Metro Area, with the threat for isolated spin-ups and tornadoes at 22%. The primary threat today will be the threat for small hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. It is advisable to keep a weather radio nearby and to keep a lookout for storms in your area.
ALERT: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 2:00 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE NYC METRO AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE METRO AREA.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact the area later tonight. Moderate to heavy rain has already begun to fall across some portions of the area. By 11:45 PM tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to envelop the area, potentially bringing hail, strong winds, lighting, flooding, and even some tornadoes along with it.
Look out for emergency weather warnings that the NWS may issue over the following several hours.