Leeward Islands – Weather 360

Peak Activity: The Tropical Atlantic Heats Up

September 19, 2019September 19, 2019Posted in Major Storm, summer, Tropical CyclonesTagged Bermuda, Cape Verde Islands, heavy rain, Hurricane, Hurricane Harvey, Imelda, Leeward Islands, National Hurricane Season, nhc, TexasLeave a comment

September 19, 2019 – Category 1 Hurricane Jerry is the latest addition to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook this evening. The 90 mph storm is moving to the west-northwest and threatens the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect, as well as Bermuda, which is still experiencing rough waters from the once Major Hurricane Humberto.

Hurricane Jerry 9 19 19.png — Hurricane Jerry, a relatively small storm as of the evening of September 19, poses a threat for the northern Leeward Islands as well as Bermuda over the next seven days.

Further to the west, the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda continues to wreak havoc in Texas – where upwards of 40″ of rain have now fallen to the east of Houston. Large swaths of southeastern Texas, which were also slammed by the historic rainfall from Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are under Flash Flood and Flood Warnings.

The Rest of the Atlantic

Now Category 2 Hurricane Humberto continues to move to the north and east away from Bermuda with winds in excess of 105 mph.
Two areas with low probability of development over the next five days are moving into and through the Caribbean Sea.
A disturbance moving off the Africa has a 50% chance at developing into a Tropical Depression over the next five days. The most immediate effects of this potential storm could be felt in the Cape Verde islands.

For more information regarding the impacts of Imelda, please visit http://www.weather.gov. For more information regarding the progress of Hurricanes Jerry and Humberto, as well as the three noted areas of potential development, please visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

More updates both here and on our Facebook page as conditions warrant.

Stay safe!

Invest 99L Poses Threat to US Mainland

August 23, 2016Posted in Major Storm, summer, Tropical CyclonesTagged Broad Area of Low Pressure, Cape Verde Islands, east coast, East Coast Hurricane Threat, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Invest 99L, Leeward Islands, National Hurricane Season, Potential US Landfall, Satellite Imagery, Tropical Depression Fiona, Tropical Storm GastoneLeave a comment

Invest 99L is an area of disturbed weather and thunderstorms currently moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph just east of the Leeward Islands. The storm has already defied some expectations that further organization would stall until the area of low pressure moved closer to Hispaniola, and has prompted an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft trip into the storm later this morning. In the short term, a bit of a model consensus has been reached in terms of whether will the storm go north or south of Hispaniola, and over the past several days, more and more computer models have moved their tracks further to the north of the cyclone-killing mountains in Haiti and The Dominican Republic. The most likely storm track is as follows; the storm will likely go north of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas before either being pulled north, or continuing on a track west over Florida (Sorry for the uncertainty, it’s still a bit early…) The most likely tracks do have one thing in common beyond the short term track though; most suggest landfall of at least a Tropical Depression somewhere on the East Coast of The United States. Whether the storm traverses Florida and makes another landfall somewhere in the Gulf before being pulled back into The Atlantic, or whether the storm moves up The East Coast, The United States will likely be impacted in some way, shape, or form by what is now Invest 99L. It is important for those on The East Coast of The United States as well as those on the west coast of Florida to monitor the situation as it progresses and to stay tuned to updates from the National Hurricane Center.

Here's a look at The Tropical Atlantic Basin Satellite Imagery. 
Tropical Depression Fiona is north of The Leeward Islands, 
Invest 99L is east of the Leeward Islands,
And Tropical Storm Gastone is just west of The Cape Verde Islands.

More detail regarding Computer Model variations and outcomes can be found at our Hurricane Center page, where Weather360 is currently covering Invest 99L, Tropical Storm Gastone, as well as Tropical Depression Fiona in The Atlantic.

Tonight crucial in any future development of Tropical Storm Erika

August 28, 2015August 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged 3.A.S., Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands, Cuba, Dominican Republic, ECMWF, Erika, Euro, Florida, GFDL, GFS, Haiti, Hispaniola, Hurricane, hurricane season, Hurricane Season 2015, HWRF, Leeward Islands, nhc, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, Tropical Cyclone, tropical depression, Tropical Storm Erika, Tropical Storm Warnings, Tropical Storm Watches, Virgin Islands, Weather, Weather 360, weather forecast, Weather NewsLeave a comment

As of 5:30 PM EDT/AST

With the newest NHC track and intensity update of Tropical Storm Erika rolling out, it is time to really stop and think, what is the single most important factor in Erika’s development, what is most crucial in the short term? The answer is for the most part clear, and cloudy, but it is Hispaniola at the moment…

Hispaniola and the Storm Shredder’s

Sounds like a band, right? Anyways, the mountains spread across central and southern portions of the two-nation island do inhibit development of tropical cyclones by ripping to shreds their center of circulation in the lower levels. The mountains of Hispaniola are anywhere between 6,000 and 10,000 feet, tall enough to disrupt the centers and other clouds at the lower levels. So really it all comes down to the mountains over the next 12 to 18 hours, and if Erika is strong enough to at the least reemerge after its encounter with the land masses.

Official Alerts:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the entire length of the coasts of The Dominican Republic and Haiti, along with The Turks and Caicos along with most of The Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern parts of Cuba and for locations in the northwestern portions of The Bahamas.

Weather 360 will continue to monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.

Tropical Storm Erika may pose threat to entire East Coast if models hold through

August 27, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, east coast, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, Hispaniola, Hurricane, Hurricane Season 2015, HWRF, Leeward Islands, Mid Atlantic, New England, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, The Bahamas, The Turks and Caicos, Tropical Storm Erika, Virgin IslandsLeave a comment

BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: 3:45 PM EDT/AST

It is now almost 4 o’clock across the Eastern Seaboard of the US and with the latest run of the computer model runs, some fairly intriguing information has come out as well.

What’s happening?

As of the 12 UTC update, several computer models that do bring Erika up the East Coast, also bring Erika to Category 4 and Category 5 status while nearing the Outer Banks. This could, if true, mean that a potential catastrophic disaster could be felt anywhere from Florida, to New England, with that in mind, we do remind you that some computer models do still bring a weaker system into Florida, which would avert a potential catastrophe. For anyone from Florida to New England, we do advise to at least be thinking about preparation for this potential storm.

For those in the Caribbean Islands, including Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and The Bahamas, we recommend immediate action, as we expect a slight shift in the track by the NHC over the next hour.

Bottom Line: BE PREPARED, Don’t let a storm catch you off guard.

We will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Erika.

Tropical Storm Erika bears down on Caribbean, and may hit the East Coast soon

August 27, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands, ECMWF, Euro, Hurricane, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, Tropical Storm Erika, Virgin Islands, Weather 360Leave a comment

As of 7:00 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika now has winds sustained at 45 knots (50 MPH), and a pressure of about 1003 millibars. The storm will likely continue to west-northwestward track at about 15 mph and impact Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, parts of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and The Bahamas over the next few days.

Let’s Talk Track

Overnight, the main computer models along with many spaghetti models seem to have locked in on their track for Tropical Storm Erika, the newest main track calls for a turn to the north, as expected, while over the Bahamas, leaving most of the state of Florida likely in the clear. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Erika will ride over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, skim northeastern parts of Hispaniola, do a direct hit on the Turks and Caicos and The Bahamas, and skim the Eastern Florida coastline.

The Computer Models, What’s New?

As said before, the spaghetti models along with all the global computer models have seemed to lock in their newest projection for Erika’s track to at least parts of the East Coast, but what about intensity? Of course, along with track, the intensity must change as well, and believe us when we say change. One may not think the following change is any more than moderately significant, but in truth, even a difference of about 10 MPH in wind speed can mean the difference between little and major damage. At the same time yesterday, the spaghetti intensity models where still all over the place, but as of last night, more and more computer models became more grouped together, leaving us with two main possibilities, either this storm will strengthen rapidly over the Bahamas, or Erika will strengthen over the next several days slowly. Both of these possibilities do say there would be a hurricane either of above Category Three status, or mid-grade Category One status in about 5 days.

Most Global Computer Models such as the GFS and the ECMWF, will became a bit more infrequently used in the immediate track, meaning that over the next few days, the shorter range and more accurate computer models will be given a bigger shot at Tropical Storm Erika.

Official Alerts: Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for southern parts of the Leeward Islands, northern portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the southern parts of the Bahamas.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Level I Emergency for locations under Tropical Storm Warnings, Level II Alert for locations under Tropical Storm Watches, and a Level III, be aware statement, for locations from Miami to The Outer Banks along with the entirety of the Eastern Seaboard.

Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Tropical Storm Erika, stay safe!

Tropical Storm Erika takes aim on Caribbean Islands, but then what?

August 25, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands, ECMWF, Euro, Hurricane, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, Tropical Storm Erika, Virgin IslandsLeave a comment

As of 7:00 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika has sustained Winds of about 45 MPH, with gusts from 50 to 60 MPH. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph towards the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

The Track

Tropical Storm Erika is expected to keep a track trough the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Already due to this threat, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. After skimming parts of Hispaniola with its southern side, Erika will begin to move towards the Bahamas, but it is after here where things get interesting.

Let’s talk computer models

For a start, the European Computer Model (ECMWF or Euro) suggests that Erika will stall just north of the Bahamas due to a somewhat aggravating high pressure, this would happen likely until the high pressure moves to the east, then Erika would be allowed to trek the East Coast as a potentially monster-like storm. Of course, we still have several days to go until we know exactly the final destination for Erika, which is officially expected to become a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Let’s bring in some of our spaghetti models now… Let’s start with some of the intensity computer models. At the moment, the majority of the computer models seem to bring Erika to hurricane strength in about 3-5 days, and continue it on a strengthening path after that. So there is limited disagreement between the current intensity models, but the spaghetti computer track models do have some disagreement on whether Erika will trek into the Gulf, or track up the coast at least to some degree.

Official Alerts: Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Leeward Islands.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Level III Alert, be aware that the potential for hazardous weather over the next two weeks may be felt along the US Southeast Coastline due to Tropical Storm Erika.

We here at Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated.

HURRICANE DANNY QUICKLY STRENGTHENS WHILE KEEPING ITS EYE SET ON THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS

August 21, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Atlantic cyclone, Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Hispaniola, Hurricane Danny, Hurricane Season 2015, Leeward Islands, Potential Landfall, Potential US Landfall, Puerto RicoLeave a comment

As of 11 AM this morning, Hurricane Danny is a 105 MPH wind, category two hurricane, with a pressure of about 980 millibars, and is making its way slowly to the west-northwest at about 12 MPH.

Not only was this not expected at this time, but due to this rapid strengthening, the intensity models have been steadily increasing the forecasted strength of Danny over the next week or so.

This is the intensity spaghetti model forecast provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Where is Danny Heading?

Locations that may be impacted by Danny over the next five days are the following: The northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

At the moment we are not ruling out a US impact by any means.

Visit our Hurricanes page for more information on the intensity and path of Hurricane Danny.