Invest 98L – Weather 360

Tropical Storm Erika may impact Southeast Coast, but will it make it there?

August 28, 2015August 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, computer models, Cuba, east coast, ECMWF, Euro, Florida, GFDL, GFS, Hispaniola, Hurricane, Hurricane Hunters, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Moutains, NAM, nhc, Puerto Rico, SFWMD, Southeastern United States, The Bahamas, The Turks and Caicos, The Virgin Islands, Tropical Storm Erika, Weather 360Leave a comment

As of 11:30 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika has sustained winds of about 50 MPH with gusts upwards of 60 MPH. The storm is moving west-northwestward at the moment over the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, parts of The Turks and Caicos along with The Bahamas, and all of Hispaniola. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft are in the storm.

The Track

This image is made public by the South Florida Water Management District (.gov)

The track seems to be locking in and narrowing down, well, at least compared to yesterday at this time, but nonetheless, the expected track and intensity are still at a state of ‘low confidence’ as mentioned by the NHC in their latest Tropical Forecast Discussion. The general trend though, is that the storm will pass over Hispaniola over the next day, then turn northward toward Florida, then possibly re curving, to go back over the Atlantic and to head up the East Coast. For those in Florida or along the Southeast Coast of the United States, please continue to monitor the situation, as the cone of uncertainty continues to include the possibility of a major storm impacting the Eastern Seaboard.

Intensity, Will She Survive?

Who knows, Erika is seeming to have a mind of her own as she has not followed the official NHC track whatsoever over the last several days. Although this is true, over the past hour or two Erika has seemed to finally get her act together (or the NHC for that matter) in determining the track, because Erika’s center of circulation along with her discombobulated thunderstorms have seemingly begun to shift to the northwest. Erika is expected to strengthen at least to a higher-grade Tropical Storm by the NHC, and by a very consistent computer model, the GFDL, a major Category Four storm off of the Southeast Coast. But what is the driving force behind its intensity? Mountains…

Believe it or not, the only difference in the computer models is if Erika will be torn up enough by the mountains for it not to reform to a well-defined system. According to the NHC, Erika will be so torn up by Hispaniola’s mountains, that it will not be able to strengthen too significantly before potential impact with Florida. This whereas the GFDL computer model along with some others, suggest a less torn-up version of Erika and strengthen her rapidly, causing her to not impact Florida for too long and move her up the US East Coast quickly as a large Major Hurricane (as of 6 UTC.)

Official Alerts:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, all of Hispaniola, The Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for parts of Cuba, and the northwest portions of The Bahamas.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Tropical Storm Warning areas are under a Level I Emergency, Locations under Tropical Storm Watches are under a Level II Alert, and a Level III, Be Aware, statement is for the Entire East Coast from Florida to Massachussetts.

Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Erika.

Tropical Storm Erika bears down on Caribbean, and may hit the East Coast soon

August 27, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands, ECMWF, Euro, Hurricane, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, Tropical Storm Erika, Virgin Islands, Weather 360Leave a comment

As of 7:00 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika now has winds sustained at 45 knots (50 MPH), and a pressure of about 1003 millibars. The storm will likely continue to west-northwestward track at about 15 mph and impact Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, parts of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and The Bahamas over the next few days.

Let’s Talk Track

Overnight, the main computer models along with many spaghetti models seem to have locked in on their track for Tropical Storm Erika, the newest main track calls for a turn to the north, as expected, while over the Bahamas, leaving most of the state of Florida likely in the clear. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Erika will ride over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, skim northeastern parts of Hispaniola, do a direct hit on the Turks and Caicos and The Bahamas, and skim the Eastern Florida coastline.

The Computer Models, What’s New?

As said before, the spaghetti models along with all the global computer models have seemed to lock in their newest projection for Erika’s track to at least parts of the East Coast, but what about intensity? Of course, along with track, the intensity must change as well, and believe us when we say change. One may not think the following change is any more than moderately significant, but in truth, even a difference of about 10 MPH in wind speed can mean the difference between little and major damage. At the same time yesterday, the spaghetti intensity models where still all over the place, but as of last night, more and more computer models became more grouped together, leaving us with two main possibilities, either this storm will strengthen rapidly over the Bahamas, or Erika will strengthen over the next several days slowly. Both of these possibilities do say there would be a hurricane either of above Category Three status, or mid-grade Category One status in about 5 days.

Most Global Computer Models such as the GFS and the ECMWF, will became a bit more infrequently used in the immediate track, meaning that over the next few days, the shorter range and more accurate computer models will be given a bigger shot at Tropical Storm Erika.

Official Alerts: Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for southern parts of the Leeward Islands, northern portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the southern parts of the Bahamas.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Level I Emergency for locations under Tropical Storm Warnings, Level II Alert for locations under Tropical Storm Watches, and a Level III, be aware statement, for locations from Miami to The Outer Banks along with the entirety of the Eastern Seaboard.

Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated on the progress of Tropical Storm Erika, stay safe!

Tropical Storm Erika takes aim on Caribbean Islands, but then what?

August 25, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands, ECMWF, Euro, Hurricane, Hurricane Season 2015, Invest 98L, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Southeastern United States, Tropical Storm Erika, Virgin IslandsLeave a comment

As of 7:00 AM EDT/AST

Tropical Storm Erika has sustained Winds of about 45 MPH, with gusts from 50 to 60 MPH. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph towards the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

The Track

Tropical Storm Erika is expected to keep a track trough the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Already due to this threat, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. After skimming parts of Hispaniola with its southern side, Erika will begin to move towards the Bahamas, but it is after here where things get interesting.

Let’s talk computer models

For a start, the European Computer Model (ECMWF or Euro) suggests that Erika will stall just north of the Bahamas due to a somewhat aggravating high pressure, this would happen likely until the high pressure moves to the east, then Erika would be allowed to trek the East Coast as a potentially monster-like storm. Of course, we still have several days to go until we know exactly the final destination for Erika, which is officially expected to become a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Let’s bring in some of our spaghetti models now… Let’s start with some of the intensity computer models. At the moment, the majority of the computer models seem to bring Erika to hurricane strength in about 3-5 days, and continue it on a strengthening path after that. So there is limited disagreement between the current intensity models, but the spaghetti computer track models do have some disagreement on whether Erika will trek into the Gulf, or track up the coast at least to some degree.

Official Alerts: Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Leeward Islands.

Weather 360 3.A.S.: Level III Alert, be aware that the potential for hazardous weather over the next two weeks may be felt along the US Southeast Coastline due to Tropical Storm Erika.

We here at Weather 360 will continue to keep you updated.

Danny downgraded to Tropical Storm, while computer models seem to be going crazy

August 23, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged ECMWF, GFS, GFTI, Invest 98L, OFCL, Track and Intensity, Tropical Storm DannyLeave a comment

As of 1:30 PM EDT/AST August 23, 2015

Now Tropical Storm Danny is making its move on its first target, The Leeward Islands. Already, Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for locations in the northern portions of the islands, along with newly issued Tropical Storm watches for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This means that Tropical Storm conditions are possible or are expected over the following few days.

Track/Intensity

So, where is Danny going?

That is the question most are asking at the moment, although, Danny wont be going anywhere if he doesn’t survive the harsh environment he has moved into. This, of course, consists of a ton of wind shear created by the El Nino that is expected to gain strength and potentially bring an end to the California drought this winter. The wind shear was supposed to, at least by now, make Danny a bit smaller and less defined, but viewing the following (as of 1:30 PM EDT/AST), you may see something other than that.

This image shows that Danny is still fighting the wind shear, and although is a bit less defined, is still expanding and has more and more convection towards the center of the storm.

At the moment the National Hurricane Center is one of the lead downers in terms of computer model forecast for intensity. With the forecast that Danny will fizzle out by the Bahamas, you can begin to imagine the differences that have been created between the OFCL (NHC computer model), and a computer model such as the GNTI computer model, which at the moment as of 12 UTC August 23 2015 suggests a category four hurricane to be off the coast of the Carolinas over the next week and a half.

These are images both available from TropicalTidbits.com, these images illustrate the the spaghetti models for Danny on a simpler format.

None of these forecasts are official, except of course for the NHC forecast below.

We’ll keep you updated as more information comes out over the next few days.

Also related on our Hurricanes 360 page: Tropical Storm Danny, and Invest 98L