Danny downgraded to Tropical Storm, while computer models seem to be going crazy

As of 1:30 PM EDT/AST August 23, 2015

Now Tropical Storm Danny is making its move on its first target, The Leeward Islands.  Already, Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for locations in the northern portions of the islands, along with newly issued Tropical Storm watches for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  This means that Tropical Storm conditions are possible or are expected over the following few days.


So, where is Danny going?

That is the question most are asking at the moment, although, Danny wont be going anywhere if he doesn’t survive the harsh environment he has moved into.  This, of course, consists of a ton of wind shear created by the El Nino that is expected to gain strength and potentially bring an end to the California drought this winter.  The wind shear was supposed to, at least by now, make Danny a bit smaller and less defined, but viewing the following (as of 1:30 PM EDT/AST), you may see something other than that.

August 23 2015 Hurricane DANNY image

This image shows that Danny is still fighting the wind shear, and although is a bit less defined, is still expanding and has more and more convection towards the center of the storm.

At the moment the National Hurricane Center is one of the lead downers in terms of computer model forecast for intensity.  With the forecast that Danny will fizzle out by the Bahamas, you can begin to imagine the differences that have been created between the OFCL (NHC computer model), and a computer model such as the GNTI computer model, which at the moment as of 12 UTC August 23 2015 suggests a category four hurricane to be off the coast of the Carolinas over the next week and a half.

Model Forecast Tracks

Model Intensity Forecasts These are images both available from TropicalTidbits.com, these images illustrate the the spaghetti models for Danny on a simpler format.

None of these forecasts are official, except of course for the NHC forecast below.

NHC Forecast Track

We’ll keep you updated as more information comes out over the next few days.

Also related on our Hurricanes 360 page: Tropical Storm Danny, and Invest 98L

Tropical Depression Four expected to strengthen and move towards Caribbean

This morning at 8 AM Eastern Time, the NHC declared former Invest 96L a Tropical Depression, the fourth of the season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin.  With a tightening circulation and strengthening winds, we here at Weather 360 can start to assume that this system will become Tropical Storm Danny shortly.  Although this system is moving slowly, and any impact to land is days out, many computer models are not ruling out the potential for a full-scale hurricane to form briefly before impacting the Lesser Antilles over the next several days to a week.

IR Satellite Image

The most recent satellite image from the NOAA of TD Four

We’ll keep you posted