Largest Winter Storm of Season Takes Aim at NYC Tri-State

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for locations across New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Snow showers earlier this morning left 1-3 inches of snow on grassy surfaces across the area, but the brunt of the storm is only now beginning to move over Long Island and New Jersey. Heavy bands of snow developing this morning will intensify throughout the afternoon, bringing with them snowfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour and wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

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Weather 360 NYC Tri-State 72 Hour Snowfall Forecast as of 9:30 AM today.

While snow totals to the east of the city in Long Island will likely remain at or below the one foot mark, locations to the west, northwest, and north of the city have the potential to reach over 18 inches of snow by Thursday morning.

Due to high winds combined with heavy snow this afternoon, it is advised that all unnecessary travel is avoided until the storm subsides tomorrow.

Strong Nor’easter to Develop Friday

A strong Nor’easter is expected to develop from a center of low pressure that will move from the Midwest over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy precipitation will likely create power outages and hazardous travel on Friday.

NAM Radar Friday March 2 2018 Noon
NAM 3km computer model display of potential weather conditions at noon on Friday. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

While it is certain that a Nor’easter will strengthen rapidly over the Mid Atlantic coast, the type of precipitation received in the NYC Metropolitan Area will depend on its proximity to the coast. As of this afternoon, the ECMWF (European) and the NAM (North American) computer models are forecasting enough cold air to transition the heavy precipitation into snow by 10 am or noon Friday. Snow totals in locations where the precipitation does change over to snow could see snow totals exceeding half a foot to over a foot of snow by Saturday morning.

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Weather 360 72 Hour Snow Total Forecast Graphic as of 4:00 PM ET 2/28/2018.

 

Potential for Significant Nor’easter Soon

A low pressure system is forecasted to develop off the coast of Florida this Tuesday, at which point it has the possibility to come close enough to the coast to impact the Northeast by Thursday.

ECMWF Forecast 12 31 17
European Computer Model (ECMWF) run for Thursday, January 4, 2018, depicting a strong low pressure developing several hundred miles off the US East Coast. (Image courtesy of Weather.us)

As low temperatures correlate to higher yields of snow from the same amount of liquid precipitation, should the storm system track any closer to the coast, upwards of half a foot to a foot of snow or more could be possible. At this time it is still unknown as to whether or not the storm will come close enough to impact the NYC area, but the potential exists for a significant winter storm or blizzard come later this week.

NYC Weather: Snow in April?

This is the Third Edition of the NYC Area Week Outlook by Weather360

Monday:  A wintry mix in the morning will transition to all rain by the afternoon.  Total snow accumulations of up to a couple of inches are possible in some (mainly northern and eastern)  portions of the area.  Highs will hover around in the low to mid 40’s.

Tuesday: Highs dropping into the low to mid 30’s will be associated with clearing skies, making it seem much more like January than April.

Wednesday: High temperatures will peak in the mid 40’s as skies become increasingly cloudy, due to an incoming low pressure system.

Thursday:  Rain associated with a low pressure system moving in from the west will bring in much more seasonable temperatures, with a high in the upper 50’s.   This rain could spell the end to winter for many Ski Resorts throughout the Northeast.

Friday: Cooler temperatures along with clearing skies will make for a somewhat more seasonable day.

The Weekend:  Highs in the 40’s along with mainly clear skies will make for a brisk, cool, early spring weekend.

In the event of an emergency weather situation, please consult the NWS at weather.gov and/or your local Emergency Management Office.