Guillermo closes in on Hawaii, Tropical Storm Watches issued for The Big Island and Maui

As newly downgraded (but still threatening) Tropical Storm Guillermo makes its way closer to the Hawaiian Islands, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu has been cranking away its newest advisories.

WEATHER 360 ISSUES A LEVEL II, ELEVATED ALERT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS CPHC ISSUES TROPICAL STORM WATCHES.

The newly issued Tropical Storm Watches for the two furthest east counties in Hawaii mean there is a potential for Tropical Storm conditions to occur in this area over the next 48 hours.  A Tropical Storm Warning means there is a certain level of certainty (normally fairly high…) that a Tropical Storm will impact said area within 36 hours of the statement made.

The following is the Tropical Storm Watch issued by the CPHC for The Big Island and Maui County:

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
545 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

...GUILLERMO MOVING NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LOCAL DETAILS REGARDING THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...
KAHOOLAWE...MAUI...THE BIG ISLAND.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM HST TUESDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1N...LONGITUDE 147.4W...OR ABOUT 515 MILES EAST
OF HILO AND ABOUT 715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST ESTIMATES THE CENTER OF
GUILLERMO WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAUI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WHILE THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE WORST WEATHER AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND OR
MAUI. THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS A PRECAUTION FOR
THOSE AREAS.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.
EVEN SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING
EFFECTS CAN EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE. SECURE OR
BRING INDOORS ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS LIKE LAWN FURNITURE...
CHILDRENS TOYS...HANGING PLANTS...BARBECUE GRILLS...OR ANY ITEM
THAT COULD BECOME A DESTRUCTIVE PROJECTILE IN STRONG WINDS. DO
NOT WAIT UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE.

STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS OR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. PERSONS
LIVING NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE QUICKLY
SHOULD BUILDING SURF THREATEN.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1230 AM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ012>028-041100-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.A.2009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
545 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...GARBAGE CANS...AND OTHER
ITEMS SHOULD BE SECURED OR STORED INDOORS.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS 14 PERCENT AT
HILO AND 17 PERCENT AT KAHULUI.

...WINDS...
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 39 MPH...34 KNOTS...ONLY A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF GUILLERMO COULD RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GUILLERMO PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LOWER IF GUILLERMO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

$$
R BALLARD


Weather 360 will bring you more information on Tropical Storm Guillermo and its potential effects on Hawaii after the next CPHC update at 8:00 AM HST (2:00 PM EDT)

Thefo,w

Tropical Storm Guillermo forms and is expected to cross paths with Hawaii

AS OF NOON JULY 30 EDT:

The National Hurricane Center has recently  upgraded former Invest 91-E to Tropical Storm status.  This newly formed Tropical Storm is expected to become a hurricane over the next day or two in the Eastern Pacific.  At the moment, nearly all the major spaghetti computer models are pointing at impact with Hawaii somewhere in between eary morning August 4 Hawaii Time, to somewhere around midday August 6 Hawaii Time.

The intensity computer models are not so sure though on the exact strength of this storm at the time of contact with Hawaii.  A few computer models suggest a potential Category 3 storm with winds surpassing 115 MPH.  And a few suggest a strong Tropical Storm with winds of about 60 MPH.  With all the current information we have, Weather 360 can start to assume that at the time of impact (which is still not 100%), Guillermo may be somewhere around the mid to high  Category 1 area, wth winds of around 80 MPH.  At the moment the NHC has forecasted winds the day before potential impact to be around 65 MPH.

Remember though, at any time all forecasts could shift tremendously, so nothing is ever 100% sure in the world of weather forecasting, especially when it comes to the longer range ones.

We will continue to keep everyone updated on the newly formed Tropical Storm Guillermo.