AS OF 9:30 PM EDT 7/28/2015
The National Hurricane Center in their most recent update on the Eastern Pacific indicates the growing support among the computer models of a rapidly growing storm in the Eastern Pacific. At the moment, the National Hurricane Center has odds of development for this storm over the next five days at 90%, an increase of 20% in two days, along with the odds of development over the next 48 hours up to 30%, up 30% from two and a half days ago.
Why would this tropical disturbance develop if the last one to develop failed so miserably?
First of all, this time around, the shorter range computer models did not really at one point indicate that former Invest 90-E (now weakening Tropical Depression Eight-E) would develop into a massive storm, but this still does not give reason to why Invest 91-E would develop. The reason for the increased odds of development for Invest 91-E (as opposed to Invest 90-E) is due to the warmer waters. Invest 91-E is further to the south than Invest 90-E was at the same longitude. This along with the fact that the ridges of high pressure steering this storm bring it into an area where wind shear (upper level winds that tear off the tops of Tropical Cyclones), is relatively at the point where there is close to zero of this phenomena.
All the ingredients are at the moment seeming to come together for what could potentially be a much larger tropical event than of its most recent predecessor, former Invest 90-E.
So for more updates regarding this storm system, stay tuned to Weather 360, and for emergency information, contact your Local Emergency Management Office if you are in the path of any current, or future storm.