Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Strengthen and May Impact East Coast

Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts.  Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.

ECMWF VS GFS:

The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences.  For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic.  The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.

At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.

Rain and thunder moving in over the weekend could pose a threat to millions

A LEVEL III ALERT MESSAGE BY WEATHER 360 WILL BE RELEASED TOMORROW MORNING AS A PART OF OUR NEW 3.A.S. SYSTEM

The next few days across the Tri-State Area will be for the most part, calm.  With temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s and little to no clouds in the sky, the next few days will feel like true Summer, unlike the temperatures from several days ago that made everyone feel like it was May again.  Although temperatures will be roughly the same during the start of next week, the potential for rain and thunderstorms will start to appear starting around early or midday Sunday.  Therefore, over the next 24 hours, Weather 360 will initiate its first issue of the 3.A.S. (3-Leveled Alert System.)  In this case, an Increasing Level III Alert will be issued as of tomorrow morning.  This means not only to be alert and aware that potentially threatening weather may move into our area over the next 36 hours or so, but also means that the threat level will likely increase to either Level II, or potentially a Level I, Most Urgent Alert.  If this alert was only a normal Level III Alert, then the threat level would likely not increase and one would only have to remain aware of the incoming weather conditions.

Weather 360 introduces a 3-Level Alert System as severe storms target the East Coast

Along with a stream of Weather Broadcasts on our YouTube channel, Weather 360, we would also like to release and test a 3-Level Alert System, which we have abbreviated 3.A.S (not purposely based on E.A.S, which is the NWS’ Emergency Alert System), in which Weather 360 outlines threats on a 3 leveled system that places different types of alert at either of the following;

Level I:  Most Urgent

Level II: Elevated Alert

Level III: Alert

Guidelines for the Alert System

Level I situations:  This event must be within the next 24 hours and may either have a watch or warning from the NWS associated with it or is expected to have a watch or warning shortly.   This event is expected to pose a potential threat to an area and is classified as Most Urgent.  In these situations it is always best to gather last-minute supplies for the storm.

Level II situations: This event must be within the next 48 hours and could pose a potential threat to an area.  Depending on the event, a watch may already be issued for this area.  If your area is given a Level II Elevated Alert, the time is now to be on your way to preparation for the potential threat.

Level III situations: This event must be within the next 72 hours and has the possibility to pose a potential threat.  Depending on the event, a watch may already be issued for this area.  If your area is under a Level III threat, now is the time to start preparation for the potential threat.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms sweeping across the country come closer to the Atlantic

As of 00 UTC, 8 PM EDT:  Thunderstorms moving to the southeast from western portions of Virginia are maintaining enough strength to produce storms capable of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain as to classify them as severe. Thunderstorms developing in upper portions of the Midwest have the potential to produce tornadoes and more severe weather as night approaches, these thunderstorms are all moving to the east-southeast.

The Tropics:  Newly formed Tropical Storm Claudette has maximum sustained winds of about 50 MPH and is moving to the Northeast off of the Mid Atlantic coast to the southeast of Nantucket.  The storm is expected to make landfall near Nova Scotia as a Tropical Depression with some winds and rains, along with rip currents.

Tomorrow’s forecast: Thunderstorms developing in the Midwest will have moved far enough east to begin to affect locations in and around NYC and other locations along the  I-95 Corridor.  With a high temperature hovering around the mid 80’s and clouds moving in early on in the day, the heat index is likely to be lower than that of yesterday, meaning that temperatures will not feel as hot as they did earlier today.  Later on tomorrow, more showers will start to move in and the potential for thunderstorms, some occasionally severe, increases.

For more information on weather across the United States, the Tropics, and more, watch our latest YouTube video as the channel Weather 360, and to start the discussion, visit us and post on our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/weather360.net

Watch out New York! Severe thunderstorms are moving in!

Starting early this evening severe thunderstorms moving in from Pennsylvania and the Midwest into our area.  For locations in and around the city thunderstorms will arrive this evening and potentially cause some severe thunderstorms capable of producing some damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, frequent lightning, and potentially some isolated tornadoes.  For locations in and around the city, the severe side of these storms will likely move out by very early tomorrow morning  and will begin to taper off as some rain.

Already areas from Ohio to the Cape are under Flash Flood Watches, meaning when the rain moves in later today there will be the potential, much like a few days ago, for some flash floods to occur.  If the National Weather Service does think that there is the potential for flash floods imminently over a specific area, they will issue a Flash Flood Warning, in which all weather radios and cellular devices in the specified area will start sounding an alarm to warn the public of the danger (likewise in the event of a tornado). Remember to turn around if you see standing or moving water, the apparent depth of the water may be different from the true depth of the water.

In the event of an alarm sounding in your area whether it be from a cell phone or from a radio, heed ANY AND ALL advice the message offers to ensure safety today and tonight.

Remember also to check the National Weather Service’s website (weather.gov or noaa.gov) if you believe there may be a severe threat either near or at your location over a short period of time.

Brace for more rain tomorrow in and around NYC

Tonight, as more rain moves into our area, the set up for rain tomorrow is becoming increasingly likely.

Tomorrow, not only will heavy rains soak the NYC area, again, but there is the possibility for some severe thunderstorms as well.  Some of these thunderstorms may contain especially heavy rains and gusty winds, along with the possibility for some more small hail. The rains will last the majority of the day tonight and will likely impact both the morning and afternoon rush hours.

We’ll keep you posted

Hurricane Season 2015 UPDATE, and the heat wave update for NYC

Officially at least, the 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has started, but, unless a major storm (or at least the first significant disturbance) develops, there is not much to talk about in terms of tropical cyclones.  For the first time in a very long time, the Tropical Atlantic Basin has received its first tropical cyclone before the Eastern Pacific has.

Now for the update on the heat wave in New York City and the Tri-State Area…

With temperatures in the 80’s and humidity percentages close to 99%, the majority of those going outdoors will likely feel fairly hot and sweaty.  The heat index in some areas (how hot it actually feels) is in the 90’s.  For those who are sensitive to the extreme heat, please heed all advisories set out by the National Weather Service (NWS.)

Stay hydrated and be safe!

TROPICAL STORM ANA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH/NORTH CAROLINA

The 50 MPH Tropical Storm Ana has just made landfall in South/North Carolina, bringing with it, rain, thunderstorms, and some storm surge.  Tropical Storm Ana is the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and is also one of the earliest landfalls by a Tropical Cyclone on record. With Hurricane Season starting in over 20 days, some are now wondering how severe this upcoming season will be now… (this information can be found here at Weather 360.)

Where is Ana heading now?

083430W5_NL_sm(NHC prediction cone from earlier this morning.)

Where is Ana heading now?  Well, according to this NHC prediction cone, Ana is making landfall right now in South/North Carolina, (the border of), and will soon lose its Tropical Storm characteristics, but will remain as a Tropical Depression (Ana) with winds of about 30 MPH up until impacting southern New England and Long Island with some waves and some wind (and some rain.)

Weather 360 will keep you posted, stay safe!

Is today really April 23rd? I didn’t notice because IT WAS SNOWING!

Its true! Snow was observed in parts of Connecticut and New York around noon today.  So the question is, is winter really over?

Well, today was more of an anomaly, where some cold air mixed in with some precipitation to make some snow and sleet.  There were no known accumulations, and temperatures will also be warmer tomorrow and this weekend.

Stay safe!

Severe thunderstorms could produce life-threatening conditions, SOON

In the NYC Metro Area especially, in a couple of hours the potential for severe, and potentially life threatening conditions will come into play.  If you have not already noticed or have not yet been outdoors, the temperatures  have begun to cool and wind speeds have also begun to pick up ahead of the storm.

What will these severe storms include?

First of all, a severe storm normally needs to have the following to be classified as a severe storm; hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain (for more, go to our Terms to Know page), which happens to be the exact components of the storms expected to line up and sweep through nearly all 31 counties in the NYC Metro Area.

Wait a second, most of those components aren’t deadly, right?

Well not exactly, because thinking about the effects of hail, gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, you may come to realize that hail can damage windows, vehicles, and cause serious injury, gusty winds can knock down trees and power lines, lightning can electrocute items and people, and last, but now least, heavy rains can create flash flooding. So know that you know some of the effects of the components that create a severe thunderstorm, you will hopefully know how to properly protect yourself and you property from one.

Be on the lookout for any severe thunderstorm watches or warnings, and stay safe!