Est. September 2014
UPDATE 1:00 PM PDT:
Now category two Hurricane Guillermo is now expected to impact the Hawaiian islands as either a mid grade Tropical Storm or as a weak category one storm.
We will update you shortly after this storm crosses over into the CPHC’s area of responsibility over the next few hours.
AS OF NOON JULY 30 EDT:
The National Hurricane Center has recently upgraded former Invest 91-E to Tropical Storm status. This newly formed Tropical Storm is expected to become a hurricane over the next day or two in the Eastern Pacific. At the moment, nearly all the major spaghetti computer models are pointing at impact with Hawaii somewhere in between eary morning August 4 Hawaii Time, to somewhere around midday August 6 Hawaii Time.
The intensity computer models are not so sure though on the exact strength of this storm at the time of contact with Hawaii. A few computer models suggest a potential Category 3 storm with winds surpassing 115 MPH. And a few suggest a strong Tropical Storm with winds of about 60 MPH. With all the current information we have, Weather 360 can start to assume that at the time of impact (which is still not 100%), Guillermo may be somewhere around the mid to high Category 1 area, wth winds of around 80 MPH. At the moment the NHC has forecasted winds the day before potential impact to be around 65 MPH.
Remember though, at any time all forecasts could shift tremendously, so nothing is ever 100% sure in the world of weather forecasting, especially when it comes to the longer range ones.
We will continue to keep everyone updated on the newly formed Tropical Storm Guillermo.
AS OF 9:30 PM EDT 7/28/2015
The National Hurricane Center in their most recent update on the Eastern Pacific indicates the growing support among the computer models of a rapidly growing storm in the Eastern Pacific. At the moment, the National Hurricane Center has odds of development for this storm over the next five days at 90%, an increase of 20% in two days, along with the odds of development over the next 48 hours up to 30%, up 30% from two and a half days ago.
Why would this tropical disturbance develop if the last one to develop failed so miserably?
First of all, this time around, the shorter range computer models did not really at one point indicate that former Invest 90-E (now weakening Tropical Depression Eight-E) would develop into a massive storm, but this still does not give reason to why Invest 91-E would develop. The reason for the increased odds of development for Invest 91-E (as opposed to Invest 90-E) is due to the warmer waters. Invest 91-E is further to the south than Invest 90-E was at the same longitude. This along with the fact that the ridges of high pressure steering this storm bring it into an area where wind shear (upper level winds that tear off the tops of Tropical Cyclones), is relatively at the point where there is close to zero of this phenomena.
All the ingredients are at the moment seeming to come together for what could potentially be a much larger tropical event than of its most recent predecessor, former Invest 90-E.
So for more updates regarding this storm system, stay tuned to Weather 360, and for emergency information, contact your Local Emergency Management Office if you are in the path of any current, or future storm.
WEATHER 360 IS RECOMMENDING AWARENESS FOR THE FOLLOWING POTENTIAL STORMS IN HAWAII.
At the moment, several different computer models are still forecasting what could potentially (emphasizing potentially here), be a significant hurricane or other tropical entity landfall.
WHAT?!?!?!?!?
Before anyone goes crazy with the explanation points, Weather 360 would like to continue to emphasize this is only one of many potential scenarios involving two areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific moving over into the Central Pacific area.
Still, what!?
According to the European computer model (Euro or ECMWF), the top computer model in the world in terms of forecasting, at least one of these disturbances moving west-northwest from the Eastern Pacific Basin may develop into a full fledged hurricane, one of which may have its potential eye set on the islands of Hawaii. With the latest computer model run from the ECMWF, we can once again get a knew perspective on this potential storm(s). In this new computer model run, one will be viewing a hurricane forecasters (potential) nightmare. With a pressure below 960 millibars, indicating a potential category 3 storm pre-landfall, this storm could have winds exceeding 120 MPH. If this storm was to make landfall in the state of Hawaii, it would be one for the history books, this storm would go along the not terribly long list of major hurricanes to impact the islands of Hawaii. Although only one major computer model is depicting this (again), potential storm, the reason Weather 360 is focusing in on this event is because the ECMWF is normally known for playing down major tropical events and changing their forecasts rapidly, and this storm has been suggested by the ECMWF for nearly a week.
I know this is the ‘best’ computer model for accuracy, what do the other computer models say?
Well, just recently (meaning over the past day or two), the GFS (known as about the 2nd ‘best’ computer model) along with many others, have been continuing to key into several variations of this scenario. One of which includes the first and the second storm system impacting the state as Tropical Storms. So, for those who may happen to be in Hawaii, or those expected to be there shortly, stay tuned for more updates, and for emergency information on this event, contact your local emergency maganagement office or the NHC (The Honolulu Center for Hawaii).
Post-post…: Weather 360 will now cover any tropical event that may impact the U.S., whether it be Maine, or Hawaii.
The remnants of Bill, still a Tropical Depression with winds of 20 MPH, is expected to move right over the New York Metro Area tonight and tomorrow, bringing with it heavy rains and some gusty winds. The amounts of rain that will fall in and around the city will likely be no more than an inch or two, with the exception in some localized areas. Mainly, this storm system will be a rain maker that will start out the week with soggy conditions, but let this not be any premonition for the rest of the week, for drier and higher temperatures can be expected. Tonight and tomorrow of you are heading outdoors or planning to head outdoors, we at Weather 360 do advise you keep an umbrella handy invade of a sudden downpour.
Although Tropical Depression Bill has only 20 mph winds and has already let go of all its moisture in Oklahoma, it is still expected to maintain a Tropical Depression status while moving over portions of the Mid Atlantic and New England. For those wondering if New York will suffer from heavy rains from Bill, the truth is, yes, on Sunday, areas from Maryland to Connecticut will be the victims of high humidity, gusty winds, and heavy rains. Even though the Northeast will be suffering from heavy rains on Sunday, the total amount of rain will likely all be below 3 inches, which is less than half of what some areas in the Mid West have received over the past few days from Bill.
Overall, the Northeast, and the New York Metro Area will have to deal with a soggy Sunday this weekend.
As Bill swirls around over Oklahoma, it is starting to drift more and more eastward. Bill is still considered a huge threat to millions as several inches of rain could induce more flooding across areas from Oklahoma to Rhode Island as it crosses the country, especially in areas that have undergone severe flooding just several weeks ago. Be on the lookout for some thunderstorms in the Northeast and try to plan around potentially heavy rains on Sunday throughout the Northeast. Also, although slim, there is a potential for some severe storms to pop up in the NYC area on Sunday, so please heed all warnings set forth by the NWS.
Thank you and we hope you come again to Weather 360!
BREAKING NEWS: A 7.0 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC RIDGE, THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT FOR ANY LOCATION SURROUNDING THIS AREA.
Tropical Depression Bill
As Bill continues to swirl its way into Oklahoma, the rain bands extending into the Gulf of Mexico from its center are beginning to move northward as well. The rain from this system is the biggest threat thus far for the remnants of Bill, with up to 8 inches of rain in southern Oklahoma, to several inches of rain expected to fall over a 500 mile long path across the United States over the next few days, to the possibility of severe thunderstorms, Bill has proved itself to be one large rain maker.
Okay, okay, we know that there will be large amounts of rain, but how will this affect me? Well, as Bill dumps its remaining moisture over the US, already flooded rivers from just a few weeks ago that have not already returned to normal will pose a potentially catastrophic threat to anyone living on or near shorelines to rivers or streams. Also, in areas such as the Northeast, occasional downpours may cause flash flooding, which can take anyone by surprise.
Now that we have said how Bill may affect you, Weather 360 hopes that if you are to be impacted by any element of this storm, that you will be safe and heed all advisories, watches, and warnings set out by your local NWS (National Weather Service) office(s).
As Bill made landfall south of Galveston, Texas yesterday, it began its track to to Oklahoma. Although Bill, now a Tropical Depression, has weakened, it is expected to stay organized as it is and even strengthen slightly before weakening while dumping the majority of its moisture on southeastern Oklahoma. In areas such as northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma, rain amounts could range anywhere from 4 to 8 inches, potentially causing extreme flooding of streams, rivers, and low lying areas susceptible to inland flooding. At the moment, Bill still remains fairly organized and is moving across Texas into Oklahoma, before significantly weakening to a remnant low and traversing the rest of the country until reaching the Northeast. Once in the Northeast, the remnants of Bill will dump any last bit of moisture it has in the form of rain showers and the occasional thunderstorm.
Recently, rivers in the areas that are expected to see rain soon have flooded, some breaking historic records, this means that there is the possibility of large flooding to happen again with the heavy rains expected to come, so keep yourself safe by heeding all warnings set out by your local NWS (National Weather Service) office.
Current Invest 91L (As of 7:00 PM EST June 15th 2015), is now expected to become Tropical Storm Bill later on this night before making landfall somewhere between Port Lavaca, Texas and Galveston, Texas. This storm already has sustained winds of about 45 MPH and is quickly developing a more organized center of circulation. This storm will dump anywhere between 2 and 8 inches of rain from the Texas coastline to Indiana and Ohio before losing all of its remaining moisture over land. Current invest 91L will also likely maintain its strength for several hundred miles inland as a Tropical Storm with winds above 40 MPH and torrential rains until it reaches the Missouri border with Kansas. For anyone living on or near the coastline between Galveston and Port Lavaca, please consult the NHC or your local emergency management center, and for those who live near or on the shoreline of a river or stream that is prone to flooding, please keep yourself up-to-date with any advisories, watches, or even warnings that may come your way as a result of this storm system, and do not forget to finish up any emergency preparations before the storm hits you.
We will keep you up to date and for detailed information regarding the soon to be Tropical Storm Bill, consult first with the NHC, then come on over to our Hurricanes 360 page to see what we here at Weather 360 could do to help you ride out the storm.
Stay safe!
*We would also like to apologize for the mix up on our last post, Invest 91L is the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 90L was Tropical Storm Ana in early May before it developed.
Weather 360 