Severe Thunderstorm Potential in NYC Today

Following a round of moderate to heavy rain this morning in and around New York City is the potential for severe thunderstorms in the mid afternoon.  With the next round of storms expected to impact the area comes the threat of hail, high winds, heavy rain, and lightning (not ruling out the potential for an isolated tornado or two).  In order to stay safe, take appropriate action now if you live in the NYC Metro Area.  Make sure that you have a flashlight, water, and a weather radio available in the event of an emergency.

An important factor in forecasting severe weather is the Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE value. The CAPE is a measure related to the total energy available for convection and the maximum vertical updraft speed.  It is important to note that the greater the CAPE, the more likely it is for severe thunderstorm development.  It becomes much more common for severe thunderstorms to develop in and around the NYC area when the CAPE value is above 800, give or take a few, and as of now, the SREF ensemble computer models (run by the Storm Prediction Center)are suggesting a CAPE value of around 1,200.  Along with this, more short range computer models such as the HRRR are suggesting a line of thunderstorms popping up around 4:00 PM EST today across the area. Remember to be on the look out for severe weather today and heed any and all advice distributed by the National Weather Service.

Severe Weather to Impact NYC

The National Weather Service has issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the New York City Metro Area.  This comes after a day of pouring rain that has saturated the ground.  These storms will impact the area over the following several hours and may bring wind gusts of upwards of 60 mph along with lightning and some hail.  Weather 360 advises to heed all warnings and to go inside if not already to avoid potential injury.

Storms Expected to Impact Upper Midwest

Over the next several hours, more lines of potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to line up across portions of the Upper Midwest, bringing hail, strong winds, and some isolated tornadoes.  As of 2:30 CDT, lines of heavy rain and thunderstorms are developing over portions of Southern Iowa, and are expected to make their way east into Illinois, parts of Wisconsin, and parts of Minnesota.   The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has most of Western Illinois under an ‘enhanced risk’, meaning that the potential for multiple severe storms does exist, and that the threat of tornadoes is elevated as well.

More on this event on our Severe Weather Center page

Severe Storms to Grip Southern Plains

Starting tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to bring heavy rains, high winds,  hail, and potentially some tornadoes from Eastern Oklahoma to Alabama. This same storm system is expected to move across the country and will eventually bring some rain to the East Coast as well.

More on this outbreak on our Severe Weather Center page.

Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings Issued

A major winter storm is expected to impact the entire New York City Metro Area tonight into Sunday Morning.

Southern Connecticut Overview:  Currently, Southern Fairfield and Southern New Haven Counties are under Winter Storm Warnings.  Locations in southern portions of Northern Fairfield County can expect near-blizzard conditions, but due to less of a threat further north in the county, the National Weather Service has decided to keep the alert level at an advisory (likewise for Northern New Haven County).  Expect wind gusts around 40 MPH with snow totals 6-15 inches.

Southeastern New York Overview: Blizzard conditions for the Greater New York City area along with Long Island.  Winter Storm Warnings for locations just to the north (Westchester County), and continued Winter Storm Watches for locations just to the north of there.  Expect wind gusts potentially reaching 50 MPH with snow totals ranging from 6 to 18 inches.

Northern New Jersey Overview: Winter Storm Warnings issued for Northwestern portions of this area.  Blizzard Warnings closer to the coast.  Expect snow totals ranging from 6 to 24 inches with wind gusts potentially reaching 60 MPH.

For more detailed information, visit weather.gov

As of 1/22/2016 5:00 PM EST